海角大神

Donald Trump says he鈥檚 going to launch a presidential exploratory committee. He insists he鈥檚 told NBC he鈥檚 not going to renew his contract for 鈥淐elebrity Apprentice.鈥� He鈥檚 really, truly thinking about running for the Oval Office in 2016, Mr. Trump announced in a statement released to the press on Wednesday.

鈥淚 am the only one who can make America great again!鈥� the Trump statement concluded.

This has semi-impressed some in the media, who are clinging to the hope that maybe, just possibly, Trump is serious this time. They鈥檙e particularly impressed with the part about the presidential exploratory committee.

鈥淎 key step toward running,鈥� writes the .

鈥淎 sign the billionaire is seriously considering running,鈥� says the .

鈥淭rump鈥檚 most decisive step yet toward running,鈥� says.

We beg to differ.

For Trump, a presidential exploratory committee isn鈥檛 a step. It鈥檚 a phrase, a signal, a means of repeating the same teasing 鈥渕aybe I鈥檒l run鈥� formulation he鈥檚 used many, many times before.

Why? For one thing, they鈥檙e quite easy to establish. File some paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, and voil脿, you鈥檙e exploring. All it takes is a little time from a lawyer, and Trump has lots of lawyers on staff.

It鈥檚 not as if you have to go out and shop for canoes and pemmican and find native guides to set one of these things up. (Also, check and see if Trump actually goes through with this 鈥� he wouldn鈥檛 be the first to say he was taking this step and then never actually do it.)

For another, Trump doesn鈥檛 need one. The purpose of a presidential exploratory committee is to allow prospective candidates to raise money to fund exploratory activities. These funds can legally pay for travel, phone calls, and other stuff meant to gauge national support. But it doesn鈥檛 seem to us as if The Donald has any trouble paying for his plane and cell service. He鈥檚 flying all over the country giving political speeches, many of them paid. Why bother with the legal restrictions that come with an FEC-registered entity, if you don鈥檛 have to?

Finally, maybe you haven鈥檛 noticed this, but the serious candidates for 2016 generally haven鈥檛 bothered with exploratory committees. They鈥檝e gone straight : PACs, super PACs, and 527s.

Reasons vary. Associates of Hillary Rodham Clinton last year that establishment of an exploratory committee triggers donation and expense disclosure requirements she鈥檇 prefer to avoid as long as possible. And the whole thing just seemed too coy for someone with obvious presidential ambitions, they said.

Exploratory committees must abide by federal campaign contribution limits. Super PACs 鈥� such as Jeb Bush鈥檚 鈥淩ight to Rise鈥� organization 鈥� don鈥檛. They can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money without FEC supervision, though they鈥檙e supposed to operate independently once Bush officially launches his campaign.

Who does have a presidential exploratory committee? Well, on the Democratic side former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb says he鈥檚 setting one up. Among Republicans, Dr. Ben Carson and Sen. Lindsey Graham have said they鈥檒l do the same thing.

All those guys are the longest of long shots. As is Donald Trump.