海角大神

Is Hillary Rodham Clinton no longer inevitable? Has her front-runner status been damaged in any way by the uproar over her amazing private e-mail system?

After all, she鈥檚 getting lots of negative coverage for conducting all her State Department electronic business via a personal account.

Republicans are almost gleeful that she never apparently signed in via 鈥渟tate.gov.鈥� They鈥檙e hinting that she must be hiding dark secrets, perhaps about the attack on US buildings in Benghazi, Libya, that left four Americans dead.

鈥淵ou do not need a law degree to have an understanding of how troubling this is. There are chains of custody issues, there are preservation of material and documents issues,鈥� said Rep. Trey Gowdy (R) of South Carolina, chairman of the House committee investigating Benghazi, .

Democrats aren鈥檛 exactly forming a phalanx around her. Rank-and-file Democratic lawmakers find creative ways of saying 鈥渘o comment鈥� .

鈥淚 must admit I鈥檝e been busy with other things around here like Prime Minister Netanyahu and things like that. So I haven鈥檛 looked at it yet,鈥� said Sen. Ben Cardin (D) of Maryland.

Even many in the mainstream punditocracy seem amazed. Veteran Washington hand Ron Fournier went nuts on Thursday after Mrs. Clinton called on the State Department to release her e-mails as soon as possible. He felt this request made her seem like an innocent bystander to a situation she had created.

鈥淭he actions of Hillary Clinton and her team raise the question: Is she trapped on the wrong side of the bridge to the 21st century?鈥� writes Mr. Fournier .

But look, this is all the working of Washington鈥檚 natural cycle of outrage. The e-mail problem isn鈥檛 positive for Clinton, obviously. But it鈥檚 the wind from a butterfly鈥檚 wings, politically speaking. It will have a small effect on her chances of sitting in the Oval Office.

For one thing, it鈥檚 early. Voters aren鈥檛 yet processing new information about the 2016 race. It鈥檚 so early that it鈥檚 possible that Clinton leaked this story herself to get it out of the way before election season truly begins.

(OK, that鈥檚 probably unlikely. It would require way too much advance strategic planning. Fun to think about though, isn鈥檛 it?)

Second, it鈥檚 the Clintons. They鈥檝e gone through so many serious political crises that this hardly registers on their war room Defcon scale. Two words: 鈥淢onica鈥� and 鈥淟ewinsky.鈥�

鈥淚n Congress the consensus of many Democrats was that this was just the latest story in a running campaign to discredit a politician who had survived worse,鈥� writes 鈥� Dave Weigel.

Most importantly, Clinton鈥檚 partisan standing is secure. Last June, found that 90 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the former secretary of State. Ninety percent! That鈥檚 a big reason why she is so far ahead in the race for the Democratic nomination. Her lead over ex-Maryland Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley and Vice President Joe Biden is a chasm. It鈥檚 the Grand Canyon. If she officially runs for the White House and is not the Democratic standard-bearer, it will be the biggest nomination upset of modern times.

The general election is another matter. She鈥檚 far from a shoo-in to beat the eventual GOP pick, though she has over most top contenders at the moment.

Even there, the e-mail uproar won鈥檛 likely matter much. As political scientist Jonathan Bernstein , candidates and campaigns can matter a lot in primary campaigns, but in the general election the two-team nature of US politics takes over.

鈥淎t that point, party is the most important factor, with the economy and other 鈥榝undamentals鈥� such as war and peace having an important but secondary effect,鈥� writes Mr. Bernstein.