海角大神

Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) of Maryland is retiring after five terms in office, according to numerous news reports. The longest-serving female senator in US history been a legislative force in her home state and the nation for a generation, from her political beginnings as a neighborhood activist who helped block a highway through Baltimore鈥檚 Fells Point neighborhood, to her service as the first woman to chair the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee.

In stepping down, she鈥檒l create a huge political opening in a state where top-level positions are generally stable. Who will run for her seat? That鈥檚 a question that鈥檚 zooming around Maryland鈥檚 political world even before the lights have dimmed at her retirement press conference.

Will Martin O鈥橫alley run? The former governor is setting up for a White House bid, but his chances are slim to slimmer against the Hillary Clinton machine. It鈥檚 possible he could opt for the Senate instead and a little national seasoning before trying again in a later presidential year.

But he鈥檇 be no lock for the Democratic Senate nomination, much less the general election. That leads some observers to opine that it鈥檚 more likely than not he sticks with his current plans. Losing an intra-mural bid for a Senate nomination might kill off Mr. O鈥橫alley鈥檚 national ambitions in a stroke.

The state has many other strong possible Democratic candidates who have been waiting for this chance, and they won鈥檛 step aside just because somebody senior to them in party ranks wants the seat.

There鈥檚 Rep. Chris Van Hollen, for instance, the congressman from prosperous Montgomery County along Washington, D.C.鈥檚 northern edge. There鈥檚 Rep. Donna Edwards, who represents Prince George鈥檚 County to D.C.鈥檚 east. There鈥檚 even Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot, who made a bid for the gubernatorial nomination in 2014 and has long been an active and ambitious force in the state Democratic Party.

鈥淟ots of O鈥橫alley buzz, but the likely contenders for the seat are Van Hollen & Donna Edwards. Both on Senate track,鈥� , National Journal politics editor, this morning.

Could the seat swing Republican? That鈥檚 another big question in the wake of the Republican Party鈥檚 2014 gains, which included the governorship of Maryland. New Gov. Larry Hogan is the face of what local members of the GOP hope will be their resurgence in a state that鈥檚 long been considered deep blue.

That鈥檚 possible but unlikely. Governor Hogan benefited from a convergence of factors: He was a good candidate; his opponent, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, was a middling candidate who seemed to believe the seat was in the bag; and 2014 was a midterm election, meaning many Democrats stayed home聽because President Obama wasn鈥檛 on the ticket.

But 2016 is a presidential election, and turnout rises in presidential years. The percentage of the state electorate composed of Democrats will almost certainly rise, since it鈥檚 low-income and minority Democrats who typically don鈥檛 go to the polls in off-years.

Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political scientist and editor of the Crystal Ball political tip sheet, thinks a Republican senator from Maryland is unlikely.

鈥淪hould be a swarm of MD Ds falling over each other to replace Mikulski. State prolly too D at prez level for Rs to compete. Safe D,鈥�