Hillary Clinton leads Chris Christie in New Jersey. Sign for 2016?
| WASHINGTON
In a hypothetical general election matchup Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton would crush Republican Chris Christie in his home state of New Jersey, according to .
That鈥檚 right, New Jersey. The state where Christie is governor. The state where he was born and grew up and has spent his whole political career.
Ex-Secretary of State Clinton leads Governor Christie in the Garden State by 49 to 39 percent, under the latest Rutgers-Eagleton results. That鈥檚 consistent with previous findings from the same pollsters. Clinton has led Christie by double digits for most of 2014.
Perhaps worse for Christie, his New Jersey favorability ratings lag Clinton鈥檚 as well. He鈥檚 12 points behind there. Fifty-six percent of state residents have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while 44 percent have a favorable opinion of their governor.
So is this survey bad news for Christie, or what?
We鈥檇 opt聽for 鈥渙r what." Obviously, it鈥檚 not good news for a GOP governor who鈥檚 thinking of running for president. But it鈥檚 not an awful indication, either.
First off, it鈥檚 one poll series and it鈥檚 early. People鈥檚 feelings about presidential prospects at this stage aren鈥檛 fully set. As we noted, Rutgers-Eagleton鈥檚 findings here have been stable for most of the year. But just about one year ago, in January 2014, this poll showed Clinton up by 21 points, 55 to 34 percent. So in that context, the current margin is good news for the New Jersey governor. He鈥檚 catching up!
Second, he remains New Jersey鈥檚 favorite Republican, at least among GOP voters.
Asked who they鈥檇 like to see win the nomination, Republican respondents in this poll named Christie 32 percent of the time. Mitt Romney was the only other possible candidate who broke into double-digits, at 10 percent. Jeb Bush, a likely 2016 rival for Christie, only scored 6 percent.
Christie must win the nomination before he can contest the general election. If he trailed other Republicans in his home state, that would indeed have been a poll disaster.
Finally, there鈥檚 this cold reality: New Jersey is a Democratic state. No Republican has a realistic shot at winning the state against Hillary Clinton.
Yes, you鈥檇 think a Republican who got elected governor might have a shot there. But voters see the presidency as a much more politically polarized office. In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 18 points in New Jersey. Obama defeated John McCain in the state in 2008 by about the same margin. John Kerry beat George W. Bush there in 2004 by eight points.
A Republican path to victory in 2016 won鈥檛 run through New Jersey. Not even if the GOP nominee is the state鈥檚 governor.
