海角大神

It鈥檚 Monday, so we鈥檝e got another dose of big poll news: in Kentucky, Alison Lundergan Grimes is ahead of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell by two percentage points in a .

That鈥檚 the first time since June that Ms. Grimes, Kentucky's secretary of State, has led in a major poll. The man she鈥檚 trying to replace, GOP Senator McConnell, has been ahead in at least 10 polls since then, including five released since Sept. 1.

So Grimes鈥檚 46 to 44 percent edge is a big deal, or would be if it reveals actual movement in the race, instead of a statistical anomaly.

鈥淧robably [an] outlier,鈥� University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato shortly after the poll was released. 鈥淏ut if Grimes downs McConnell, biggest upset of 鈥�14 ....鈥�

Technically the new poll is a tie, since its margin of error is plus-or-minus four points. The previous Bluegrass poll, taken in late August, showed McConnell up by four points. Factor in that previous survey鈥檚 margin of error, and you鈥檝e got a result that might show a tiny move toward Grimes 鈥� or might not show any movement at all.

Pretty much all other political measurements still show a McConnell lead. The of major surveys, which includes the new Bluegrass results, has him in front by 4.2 percentage points.

Political forecasting models 鈥� which take both polls and other factors, such as Kentucky鈥檚 Republican lean, into account 鈥� are more emphatic. The model puts McConnell鈥檚 chance of victory at 88 percent. At The New York Times Upshot site, it鈥檚 92 percent.

In other words, it still looks unlikely that the GOP might take the Senate yet lose the man poised to be the next majority leader. McConnell has run an aggressive campaign against Grimes and won鈥檛 fumble away his seat because he underestimated his opponent.

That said, there are some internal numbers in the new Bluegrass results that would concern the McConnell camp if they鈥檙e confirmed in subsequent polls. The survey shows Grimes gaining five points among self-described Democrats. She鈥檚 the choice of 72 percent of her party鈥檚 voters in the state, as opposed to 67 percent in the August Bluegrass poll.

That could mean she鈥檚 winning over a larger portion of her state鈥檚 still-large contingent of conservative Democrats.

As Philip Bump notes at "The Fix" blog at The Washington Post, the new poll also shows a net gain of nine points for Grimes among men, and a whopping net gain of 21 points among the 35-to-49 age group.

鈥淚f men really are stepping away from McConnell or if that age group swung wildly against the incumbent, that would suggest something dramatic is happening on the ground 鈥� something that isn鈥檛 readily apparent from 30,000 feet,鈥� .

But it鈥檚 also quite possible there is nothing dramatic happening and the swings in the numbers are normal statistical noise. Meanwhile, conservatives aren鈥檛 focused on the latest poll. They鈥檙e looking at a report in the right-leaning that members of Grimes鈥檚 campaign team have been caught on tape speculating that she does not really support the coal industry, which is a pillar of the Kentucky economy.