海角大神

Rep. Vance McAllister (R) of Louisiana, the 鈥渒issing congressman鈥� who was caught on surveillance tape smooching a (married) staffer, has decided to run for reelection after all. He made his decision public during a series of local interviews and a press conference at an American Legion Hall in his district.

鈥淚 wanted to make sure everything was good with our family,鈥� Representative McAllister told the Monroe, La., News Star. 鈥淥ur family is stronger than ever, so I think the people should decide whether or not I continue to represent them.鈥�

McAllister added that, as far as he was concerned, he was finished talking about his extramarital lip-locking.

鈥淚鈥檝e publicly apologized to the people in the Fifth District and more importantly worked through it with my family,鈥� he said to the News Star. 鈥淚鈥檝e said all I鈥檓 going to say about it. Now it鈥檚 up to the voters.鈥�

Wow, does McAllister have any hope here? After all, he is going back on his word. Back in April, after the surveillance tape leaked to the media, he said he would not run for reelection in 2014.

At the time, pretty much every figure in the state Republican Party, including Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), issued statements calling on him to resign immediately, if not sooner. Plus, his most important patron has since turned on him. An endorsement from 鈥淒uck Dynasty鈥� patriarch Phil Robertson helped him gain office in 2012 over better-known candidates. Now the coveted Robertson clan nod will likely go to Zach Dasher, Phil Robertson鈥檚 nephew, who鈥檚 thrown his own duck call into the ring as a candidate.

It鈥檚 true that Louisiana politicians have survived similar predicaments. Sen. David Vitter (R) won reelection in 2010 despite the fact that a phone number linked to him appeared in the publicly released records of the D.C. Madam. But Senator Vitter had the support of the state GOP establishment. McAllister doesn鈥檛. In fact, the kissing congressman is something of a party maverick 鈥� he鈥檚 indicated he is for expansion of Medicaid, for example, which could help many of his poorer constituents聽but is at odds with GOP party doctrine. So he鈥檒l face widespread, organized primary opposition.

Voters generally say extramarital dalliances won鈥檛 make much difference in their choice of candidates. Last year found that only about 28 percent of respondents said such an affair would make a difference in their votes.

But it鈥檚 one thing to say that in the abstract and another to actually make that choice in the voting booth, with names attached. Given the evidence in the McAllister case, the dalliance will be far from abstract by the time the election occurs. It will have been plastered all over local TV.

鈥淪o Vance McAllister really just wants to see if his primary opponent will use that security video in an ad, right?鈥� tweeted Washington Post political reporter Aaron Blake earlier Monday.

That鈥檚 what we think could well be fatal to McAllister鈥檚 ambitions.