Why does Hillary Clinton outpoll Jeb Bush in his own state?
| WASHINGTON
How well is Hillary Rodham Clinton doing in the polls right now? She鈥檚 doing so well that she easily beats former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 鈥� in his own state.
That鈥檚 what poll finds, anyway. Mrs. Clinton leads MR. Bush by 49 percent to 41 percent in a notional 2016 presidential matchup in Florida, according to the survey.
And Bush is her closest GOP competitor in Florida, in Quinnipiac鈥檚 numbers. Former Secretary of State Clinton leads US Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida by 52 percent to 40 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky by 55 to 37 percent. She鈥檚 ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie by 52 to 34 percent, and bests Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas by 57 to 31 percent.
鈥淔or a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can鈥檛 get here soon enough. Not only does she outpoint the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent,鈥� said Peter Brown, Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director, in a statement.
Well, maybe. But come on 鈥� this is just one poll. As we wrote Wednesday, individual head-to-head matchup surveys this distant from an actual election date are pretty close to guessing. If they were accurate, we鈥檇 be talking about successors to President Rudy Giuliani.
That said, we think the Quinnipiac numbers do reveal this: Hillary Clinton is one of the most famous (or infamous, depending on your point of view) US political figures on the planet. That鈥檚 why she does well. These early polls reflect simple name recognition as much as they do an actual electoral choice.
Look at the results of Quinnipiac鈥檚 question about her favorability. Asked whether they like her or not, 58 percent of respondents say they have a favorable opinion of her, and 37 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion. Only 4 percent say they haven鈥檛 heard enough about Clinton to judge her one way or another.
Four percent 鈥� that鈥檚 nothing. That means 96 percent of Florida voters have an opinion about her, yea or nay, after her decades in the public spotlight.
Switch to Bush鈥檚 numbers, and you see the contrast. Fifty-three percent of respondents say they have a favorable opinion of their former governor, and 35 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion. Eleven percent of voters say they haven鈥檛 heard enough about him to make up their minds.
That鈥檚 right 鈥� almost three times as many Floridians say they don鈥檛 have enough information to rate Bush as say that about Clinton. And he used to be in charge of the whole state!
Look even further and you see that younger voters are a big driver of this split. Almost a quarter of voters ages 18 to 29 say they don鈥檛 know enough about Bush. Taken together, this means that after being out of office since 2007, Bush would have to introduce (or reintroduce) himself to the electorate if he decides to run for president.
