海角大神

On 鈥淭he Colbert Report鈥� Monday night, comic Stephen Colbert pronounced Jeb Bush鈥檚 prospects for winning the White House to be zero, ended, kaput. The reason? Over the weekend the former Florida governor talked about illegal immigration during an appearance at his father鈥檚 presidential library and said that those who sneak into the US for work do so as an 鈥渁ct of love鈥� to support their families.

Mr. Colbert played the Bush clip, then sat in silence for a beat. 鈥淗e will be missed,鈥� the funnyman said.

Republican primary voters know that illegal immigration is driven by something other than affection, Colbert added. We won鈥檛 go into that further; you can watch that part for yourself.

Colbert concluded this bit by saying that immigration made this country great, but only when driven by Nazis or potato famine.

鈥淣ice try Jeb. It鈥檚 over,鈥� he said.

Yes, Stephen Colbert is a performer playing the part of an aggrieved right-leaning host, so it鈥檚 not like this is informed political data analysis. He鈥檚 structuring his argument for maximum laughs as opposed to maximum insight.

But we bring this up because this opinion is, in fact, widely shared among certain types of Republicans. There鈥檚 an establishment core within the party that thinks Mr. Bush running for president would be a great idea, and they鈥檙e pressing hard to make it so. But grass-roots activists, tea party backers, and (some) neoconservatives have recoiled from this effort in general and Bush鈥檚 鈥渓ove鈥� remark in particular.

鈥淚 think there鈥檚 no way there will be a Bush-Clinton race in 2016,鈥� said conservative commentator Bill Kristol on MSNBC鈥檚 鈥淢orning Joe鈥� Tuesday.

The pushback indeed centers on Bush鈥檚 immigration views. His opinions on this problem are not widely shared by conservative GOP base voters. It鈥檚 Republicans in the House who have bottled up comprehensive immigration reform, remember. In doing so, they鈥檙e just reflecting the leanings of their districts.

But that鈥檚 not all. Bush hasn鈥檛 been too involved in the struggle against Obamacare or other Obama-era policy disputes. He is in favor of Common Core educational standards, which aren鈥檛 popular in conservative localities. His surname stands for big government, according to many tea party-leaners. Medicare Part D and the Iraq War both came during his brother W.鈥檚 presidential watch.

鈥淚鈥檓 treating the prospect of another Bush nomination as a test of whether the Republican grassroots, realistically, has any influence at all over who their party chooses,鈥� .

Bush鈥檚 potential 2016 rivals aren鈥檛 slamming him 鈥� yet. But they鈥檙e walking right up to the edge.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas said on CNN on Monday that it鈥檚 true that illegal immigrants endure 鈥渉eartbreaking鈥� conditions as they make their way through the desert along the southern border to reach the United States. However, they鈥檙e breaking the law by sneaking into the country, he added.

鈥淩ule of law matters,鈥� said Senator Cruz.

Asked whether ex-Governor Bush was a strong conservative, Cruz demurred.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 a question for voters to say,鈥� he said.

Bush said on Sunday that he鈥檒l decide whether to run for the White House by the end of the year. One thing bearing on his decision will be whether he thinks he can avoid the 鈥渧ortex of the mudfight鈥� in the 2016 campaign.

Good luck with that. As Allahpundit points out, Bush will get asked about Iraq, and he鈥檒l either have to defend W.鈥檚 choice to invade or disown his own brother. That could make the immigration debate look civil indeed.

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