New Chris Christie polls: the number that might worry him most
Chris Christie鈥檚 poll numbers are getting worse. That鈥檚 no surprise given the nature of the Bridge-gate controversy.
The fact that Christie aides conspired to create traffic jams in Fort Lee, N.J., in an apparent act of political retribution has been extensively covered in national media. Though an early Pew poll showed the public wasn鈥檛 following this event too closely, later surveys show that negative views of the New Jersey governor are increasing. That may mean the stories are having an effect.
A released Monday found that 34 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Governor Christie, for example. That鈥檚 double the 17 percent who held that view in January 2013.
Christie鈥檚 favorable ratings fell only slightly in that same poll, from 40 percent with a positive opinion of him one year ago to 38 percent today. But the implication of the above numbers is that, in national terms, Christie鈥檚 image has changed from that of a generally-unknown-yet-somewhat-well-regarded figure, to that of somebody about whom US voters are almost evenly split.
A released Tuesday has similar findings, with a 33 percent positive, 30 percent negative result. Quinnipiac shows what this means in theoretical election terms: Christie now trails Hillary Clinton by 38 to 46 percent in a hypothetical 2016 matchup.
Only one short month ago, Christie led the former secretary of State and first lady by one point, 42 to 41.
鈥淣ew Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie鈥檚 2016 presidential drive is stuck in traffic, sideswiped by Bridgegate, the George Washington Bridge traffic scandal,鈥� said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a statement.
For Christie, the good news is that 2016 is so far off that, in terms of overall voter opinions, these polls almost don鈥檛 matter. Many, many news events affecting the race will intervene before citizens actually go to the polls. The 2016 race indeed is underway, but at a different level. We鈥檙e in the 鈥渋nvisible primary鈥� stage of the right now, in which big donors, campaign consultants, and party officials are weighing the strength and weaknesses of potential candidates to see who they鈥檒l support.
But there is one particular number in the Pew poll which might concern Christie if he鈥檚 genuinely thinking about running for the Oval Office.
That figure? It鈥檚 the fast-declining percentage of people who say they have no opinion about Christie.
In 2013, fully 42 percent of respondents in Pew鈥檚 survey said that they had never heard of Christie, or didn鈥檛 know enough to have an opinion about him. In 2014, 28 percent said the same thing.
That鈥檚 a 14 percent swing. Coincidentally, Christie鈥檚 favorable/unfavorable matchup got worse by almost that same number 鈥� 17 percent 鈥� during that same time period.
People who don鈥檛 know you are people to whom you can still introduce yourself on your own terms. They鈥檙e easier to win over than people who鈥檝e already heard something bad about you. That鈥檚 particularly true when 鈥渨inning over鈥� means 鈥済etting them to vote for you for president.鈥�
To be fair, it鈥檚 just one poll. Quinnipiac鈥檚 numbers tell a different story. In their survey, the percentage of respondents who say they haven鈥檛 heard enough about Christie to have an opinion about him has actually increased a bit during the past year.
But in politics, as in life, you never get a second chance to make a first impression, and Christie must be hoping that Bridge-gate is not many voters鈥� introduction to his personality.
