Clay Aiken of 'American Idol' may run for Congress. Could he win?
Clay Aiken is apparently thinking about running for Congress in his home state of North Carolina. That鈥檚 the rumor roiling Tar Heel State political circles Friday, in any case. The 鈥�American Idol鈥� singer hasn鈥檛 confirmed this yet, but there鈥檚 a story about the possible candidacy that鈥檚 got lots of details and sounds well sourced.
Mr. Aiken, the Blade says, has talked to D.C. political operatives about running as a Democrat in North Carolina鈥檚 Second Congressional District outside Raleigh. He鈥檚 started making phone calls to gauge support in the state and is working with a woman named Betsy Conti, a Raleigh strategist and former aide to ex-Gov. Bev Perdue.
鈥淎nother Democratic source said Aiken was in D.C. last month meeting with pollsters at Hart Research Associates to examine polling data with one of the partners at the firm,鈥� writes the Blade鈥檚 Chris Johnson.
The Blade focuses on issues of importance to the gay, lesbian, and transgender community. Aiken, who said he is gay in 2008, finished second in the 鈥淎merican Idol鈥� competition in 2003, and he's since become one of the bestselling artists to emerge from the competition. Does he have the star power and political chops to pull off a Democratic victory in a state that went for Mitt Romney in 2012? 聽
Well, first of all, someone or some group wants him to try. That鈥檚 our reading of the anonymously sourced Blade story. It reads like a leak intended to push further into the political arena someone who鈥檚 considering a bid for office. The usual suspects for this would be locals who think he represents their best chance to unseat GOP incumbent Rep. Renee Ellmers or national groups who think he鈥檇 bring issues they support to the fore.
It鈥檚 also possible that Aiken himself leaked the story, as a classic trial balloon.
Second, victory in this case isn鈥檛 an impossible dream. The Second District was represented by a Democrat, Rep. Bob Etheridge, from 1997 until 2011. Mr. Etheridge lost to Ms. Ellmers in the GOP landslide of 2010. Aiken could easily raise lots of money, which can make a big difference in a House race. Plus, he鈥檇 be running in a state that isn鈥檛 shy about electing celebrities. Remember Rep. Heath Shuler? 聽He鈥檚 a former NFL quarterback who was also a three-term conservative Democratic lawmaker from North Carolina鈥檚 11th District. (Mr. Shuler declined to run for reelection in 2012 after redistricting made the 11th more Republican.)
But in the end, Aiken would still face a tough race. In fact, our prediction is that like Ashley Judd, who toyed with opposing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) in Kentucky, Aiken eventually will decide not to run in 2014. Midterms are not hospitable environments for political neophytes of the incumbent presidential party. They鈥檙e especially tough if you鈥檙e running in a state that鈥檚 lately leaned the other way, in a district that鈥檚 become more solid for your potential opponent.
Political prognosticator Charlie Cook rates North Carolina鈥檚 Second District as 鈥渟olid Republican鈥� in his Cook Political Report. So does University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato in his .
John McCain beat Barack Obama by 12 percentage points in the Second in 2008. Mr. Romney won it in 2012 by almost 17 points. Those numbers indicate that any Democrat faces a steep uphill climb in the district this year.
