海角大神

It鈥檚 pretty obvious that Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2016. But who鈥檚 going to be the anti-Hillary? That鈥檚 something that鈥檚 much more difficult to foresee.

Yes, you read that right 鈥� the 鈥渁nti-Hillary.鈥� The structure of the developing 2016 race is such that it鈥檚 quite likely the former secretary of State will face an intra-party challenger who fashions themselves the yin to her yang.

That鈥檚 the point perceptive University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato makes in his Thursday, in any case. He says Mrs. Clinton remains the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination, but that there鈥檚 lots of lingering resentment within the party toward her husband, who pushed the party to the right during his presidency, and toward her own vote for the Iraq war as a senator in 2002.

She鈥檒l 鈥渁t least receive a minimal challenge from someone for the nomination. One possibility to watch: ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana,鈥� write Sabato and colleague Kyle Kondik.

OK, we鈥檙e watching. And guess what? On Wednesday, former Governor Schweitzer ... criticized Hillary鈥檚 vote on the Iraq war during an appearance in Iowa. That鈥檚 where they hold those first-in-the-nation caucuses that kick off the presidential race. In case you鈥檝e forgotten.

鈥淚 didn鈥檛 vote for that war, and I didn鈥檛 think it was a good idea,鈥� he said at an event for the left-leaning group Progress Iowa, according to a report in the .

Schweitzer didn鈥檛 mention Clinton specifically. But Register reporter Jennifer Jacobs asked him about her afterwards, and she writes that he responded with a grin.

鈥淒id she vote for it? I didn鈥檛 keep track,鈥� said Schweitzer.

Nudge, nudge; wink, wink; know-what-I-mean? Afterwards Schweitzer auctioned off his tie and other articles of clothing as a fund-raiser for the progressive group.

We鈥檝e got a couple of points to make about this anti-Hillary business, however. The first is that whoever wants to assume this mantle has a long, long way to rise, and they鈥檇 better get busy and hustle to Iowa, as Schweitzer has.

Just look at the polls. Last week the Register put out its rating possible 2016 contenders, and Hillary just killed. Eighty-nine percent of Iowa Democrats said they had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of her.

Schweitzer, in contrast, was a blip. Sixteen percent of Iowa Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of him. Fully 70 percent said they weren鈥檛 sure, meaning they probably didn鈥檛 know who he is.

Maryland Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley, another possible Hillary challenger, had the same problem. He got an 18 percent favorable rating and a 69 percent 鈥渘ot sure.鈥�

Look, it鈥檚 still a long ways to 2016, and Barack Obama wasn鈥檛 exactly a household name at the same point in the 2008 cycle. But Jimmy Carter could probably beat Schweitzer and O鈥橫alley鈥檚 numbers in Iowa at the moment. This is why running for president is such a slog of hand-shaking and precinct-visiting in Iowa and New Hampshire for many contenders.

Finally, don鈥檛 count out Hillary herself as the anti-Hillary of 2016.

This thought isn鈥檛 original with us 鈥� veteran reporter Ron Fournier of the National Journal floats this Thursday in a column that鈥檚 written in the style of a .

Fournier points out that Washington insiders, intensely political people, and national institutions are all polling badly at the moment. Problem is, Hillary is all three of those things.

That means she has to campaign as an honest, accessible, vulnerable, competent populist, writes Fournier.

鈥淭o win, you must be the anti-Hillary. You need to blast the public鈥檚 caricature of you to smithereens and replace it with what we know as the real Hillary,鈥� goes the fake memo.

Of course, Hillary could give pundits everywhere the vapors by deciding she doesn鈥檛 want to run for president after all. She鈥檚 still sounding ... unconvinced.

鈥淚 haven鈥檛 made up my mind. Obviously I will look carefully at what I think I can do and make that decision sometime next year,鈥� she told Barbara Walters for Walters鈥� 鈥�10 Most Fascinating People of 2013鈥�.