Obama disapproval rating hits new high. What's driving poll numbers?
Right now the numbers look bad for President Obama. Two new national polls show disapproval of his presidential performance at record highs.
An survey released Wednesday found that 54 percent of respondents did not approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as US chief executive. Forty-three percent approved, putting the president鈥檚 rating underwater by 11 points. That鈥檚 his worst showing ever in this poll.
Similarly, Quinnipiac released a survey that put Obama at 57 percent disapproval and 38 percent approval, for a negative spread of 19 points.
Quinnipiac also found the GOP ahead in the generic congressional ballot, with 41 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress and 38 percent opting for a Democrat.
鈥淎 rousing chorus of Bah! Humbug! for President Barack Obama as American voters head into the holidays with little charitable to say about the president,鈥� said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a statement.
鈥淧resident Obama could be pretty lonely during his last two years in office if voters decide they want Republican majorities in the House and Senate,鈥� Mr. Malloy added.
Remember, individual polls don鈥檛 really make a trend by themselves. It鈥檚 best to look at them in the context of other surveys to get an average of US attitudes.
When you do that, things look a bit better for Obama 鈥� but only a bit. Maybe not even a bit. Just a smidge.
According to the of major polls, Obama鈥檚 numbers bottomed out a week ago, with 56 percent disapproval and 40 percent approval, for a spread of negative 16 points. He鈥檚 recovered a bit since then, to a negative spread of 11 points.
But the RCP rolling average of the shows how far and fast the Democratic Party has fallen. In late October, Democrats had a seven-point advantage on this measure. Now the Republicans have pulled ahead and opened a three-point edge, their biggest this election cycle.
It鈥檚 easy to infer what鈥檚 driving these numbers by just looking at a graph of the rolling averages. Obama and the Democrats were doing OK until mid-to-late October, when things suddenly turned bad and their disapproval ratings rocketed up. That鈥檚 about the time that the full extent of HealthCare.gov鈥檚 problems hit the news media.
The new NBC/WSJ poll reflects this dynamic. Asked which issue has been most important in shaping their opinion of Obama, 58 percent said the health-care law. Twenty-five percent said the economy, 23 percent the government shutdown, and 16 percent issues in Syria and Iran. (These add up to more than 100 percent because respondents were able to list two answers apiece.)
Quinnipiac found the same thing: By 34 to 62 percent, Americans disapprove of Obama鈥檚 job on health care.
Unsurprisingly, the recovery or nonrecovery of Obamacare from its rocky start will probably have the most profound effect on the president鈥檚 numbers and whether Democrats hold or lose the Senate.
鈥淎s health care goes, so goes the Obama presidency for next year,鈥� Fred Yang.
