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Who鈥檚 the face of the national Republican Party now that the government shutdown and debt-ceiling crisis is over? We admit that this is a rhetorical question given that such a job doesn鈥檛 actually exist. It鈥檚 more like asking who鈥檚 the Big Person on Campus, which is a position bestowed by a rough consensus among underclassmen that is subject to continual reconsideration. And the recent unpleasantness in Washington has upset the old GOP consensus to an extraordinary extent.

One thing鈥檚 for sure: John Boehner鈥檚 down at the moment. Yes, the speaker of the House remains the highest-ranking elected Republican in the nation. Yes, he鈥檚 retained the loyalty of his caucus despite his troubles. Tea party conservatives appreciate that he adopted their tough stance toward Obamacare, at least until the debt crisis loomed.

But a CNN/ORC poll out this morning shows he鈥檚 now got . Sixty-three percent of survey respondents say the Ohio Republican should be replaced as House speaker. Only 30 percent say he should stay in the job.

For Mr. Boehner, the breakdown of these numbers is even worse. Republicans as a whole are split on his leadership, with 47 percent calling for his head, and 46 percent saying he should remain. The only subgroup that鈥檚 really in his corner is conservatives, who favor his speakership 55 to 35 percent.

Meanwhile Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell is up. Conservatives may rip him as a sellout for his role in the deal which ended the recent fiscal crisis, but most other GOP factions have been quietly relieved. (Or loudly relieved, if you鈥檙e Sen. John McCain.)

On Sunday Senator McConnell said flatly on CBS Face the Nation 鈥渢here鈥檒l not be another government shutdown. You can count on that.鈥� That鈥檚 a pretty direct assertion of power, if you ask us. It also likely means he remains unworried about his tea party primary challenger back home in Kentucky, where he鈥檚 up for reelection in 2014. Frustrated conservatives have vowed to direct money to Matt Bevin, the challenger in question, but they鈥檙e going to have to dig deep to make a difference: new third-quarter totals show McConnell has $10 million on hand while Bevin raised only $220,000 from the outside, plus $600,000 of his own money.

McConnell appears confident that his real worry is the general election, where he鈥檒l face Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.

鈥淪enate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has signaled in recent days he is increasingly focusing on his Democratic opponent in next year鈥檚 Senate race and not so much on his Republican primary challenger,鈥� Sam Youngman.

Then there鈥檚 Ted Cruz of Texas. Millions of barrels of pixels have been spilled discussing the future of the junior senator from Texas in recent weeks. He went out onto the defund-Obamacare stage and came back a star, particularly among those on the right. As we鈥檝e written before, Senator Cruz鈥檚 willingness to fight against the odds has thrilled his supporters and made him the closest thing there is to the president of US conservatives.

But it is our belief that in so doing he has limited his future political appeal.

Look, the tea party is a minority faction in the GOP. In September, about 35 percent of Republicans identified themselves as tea party conservatives, . That鈥檚 a big drop from 2010, when 65 percent of the party said it supported the tea party.

Is Cruz the front-runner for the 2016 presidential nomination? Well, maybe 鈥� polls show he鈥檚 a top pick at the moment. And tea party adherents are more likely to vote in primaries than other Republicans. But it鈥檚 early and he鈥檚 just had a burst of publicity. Some of that represents name recognition. And he鈥檒l have to do some extensive tacking toward the center of the party just to win the GOP nod. Remember Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, and the rest of the right-leaning GOP challengers? They lost.

Cruz has alienated many GOP establishment leaders, and they鈥檒l be sure to make that clear as the campaign develops. That鈥檚 going to matter, argues political scientist Jonathan Bernstein on his

鈥淭o the extent that those future negative cues are already baked in 鈥� and I鈥檓 fairly confident that鈥檚 the case for Ted Cruz 鈥� no, he鈥檚 not the frontrunner. Not at all,鈥� writes Mr. Bernstein.