海角大神

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas is outlining a new 鈥減ath to victory鈥� 鈥� legislative tactics to pass a funding bill to keep the government open while defunding Obamacare. Does the Cruz plan stand any chance of success?

Well, anything can happen in US politics, so it鈥檚 possible Senator Cruz鈥檚 ideas could work. But the path he鈥檚 offering is twisty and difficult and involves Senate Republicans mounting a filibuster against the defund-Obamacare provision they actually support.

In other words, they have to be against it before they can be for it. That鈥檚 a tough sell for many in the GOP.

鈥淪enate rules 鈥� combined with the strategic context and GOP disagreement 鈥� give Democrats the upper hand,鈥� judges Sarah Binder, a professor of political science at George Washington University, .

Cruz outlines his victory roadmap in an opinion piece Monday聽on RealClearPolitics. Its first step involves demanding that majority leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada subject any effort to remove the defund provision from the spending bill that passed the House on Friday to a 60-vote threshold.

If Senator Reid doesn鈥檛 agree to do that 鈥� and he won鈥檛, because he doesn鈥檛 have to 鈥� then 鈥渁 vote for cloture is a vote for Obamacare," writes Cruz. In other words, Cruz and his allies will try to filibuster the bill at their first opportunity, even if it鈥檚 word-for-word identical to the version passed by the Republican-controlled House.

There鈥檚 more, but we鈥檒l stop for a moment to outline Reid鈥檚 likely moves in an attempt to make this clearer. Reid鈥檚 basic position will (probably) be this: He鈥檒l open debate on the bill, file an amendment calling for the Obamacare provision to be struck, then call for cloture [a procedural move to end debate] before the amendment comes to a vote.

Once Reid gets 60 votes for cloture, further debate is capped at 30 hours, and pending amendments only need 50 votes to pass. Given that Democrats are a majority in the Senate and a number of Republican senators are wary of shutting down the government over defunding Obamacare, Reid should have an easy time striking the Obamacare language in this scenario.

鈥淚f GOP senators actually follow [Cruz's advice] they will, in effect, be voting against a bill that includes Obamacare defunding,鈥�

Cruz has admitted in the past that Reid and the Democrats likely will win in the Senate and block any GOP bid to defund health reform, and this judgment may ultimately be proved correct, according to Mr. Lesniewski, a procedural expert who鈥檚 been examining the details of this issue for days.

But the Cruz plan also has a Part B: If the bill gets through the Senate, then the House should refuse to go along and pass a clean funding bill, he says. Instead, it should break up the big continuing resolution into sections, beginning with military spending, and pass each with defund-Obamacare language attached. And, eventually, Reid will be forced to back down, he says.

鈥淒are Reid to keep voting to shut down the government,鈥� Cruz writes.

The Texas tea party favorite says pressure from US voters who oppose the Affordable Care Act will cause Reid to cave. Again, that鈥檚 possible. But it鈥檚 more likely that votes on mini-funding bills won鈥檛 differ much from the vote on a big one. And polls show Republicans will get at least as much of the blame as Democrats, and possibly more, if the government shuts down.

Of course, for Cruz himself there can be victory, even if the Senate passes a bill he doesn鈥檛 like. After urging on House Republicans to link defunding to a government shutdown, he now needs to make an impact in some way, note Washington Post political experts Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan.

This could involve hours of a talking filibuster, or convincing at least a few wavering Senate Republicans to his side.

鈥淲hat Cruz must prove this week is that he鈥檚 more than just talk; that when he has the chance to act on principle, he does everything he can to do exactly that,鈥� .