Will 'Nosegate' really hurt Mitch McConnell at the polls?
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| WASHINGTON
Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell鈥檚 campaign manager, Jesse Benton, has been caught on tape saying he鈥檚 鈥渉olding his nose鈥 while working for Kentucky鈥檚 Republican senior senator.
Mr. Benton鈥檚 purpose in doing a job he finds distasteful, according to the secret recording, is to cement a relationship that will help Kentucky鈥檚 Republican/libertarian junior senator, Rand Paul, in a reelection or possible presidential bid.
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e doing here is going to be a big benefit to Rand in 鈥16,鈥 said Benton on the tape, first reported by on Thursday.
Wow, talk about unrest in the ranks. Is 鈥淣osegate," as pundits have labeled the affair, going to hurt Senator McConnell at the polls in 2014? After all, Kentuckians already seem dissatisfied with McConnell鈥檚 performance 鈥 polls show his favorability rating is currently negative in the state.
Some pundits say the proboscis revelation could indeed be a problem for the Senate鈥檚 GOP leader.
It鈥檚 true that political insiders are fully aware that Benton, a longtime Ron Paul and Rand Paul supporter, is more a tea party person than an establishment Republican. McConnell hired him in part to build a bridge to the tea party wing of his party.
But most voters don鈥檛 know that. And McConnell鈥檚 opponents might use Benton鈥檚 remarks to show that even McConnell鈥檚 staff thinks McConnell is inauthentic.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not that voters care about staff stuff. They don鈥檛. But this development allows staff stuff to become indicative of McConnell trying to be something he isn鈥檛,鈥 writes Washington Post political analyst .
The primary beneficiary of this gaffe is likely McConnell鈥檚 primary opponent, wealthy Louisville businessman Matt Benton,
As a tea party person himself, Mr. Bevin will try to run to McConnell鈥檚 right. He made a good first impression with a speech at Kentucky鈥檚 Fancy Farms political picnic last week, but the campaign neophyte starts far behind McConnell in terms of name recognition and statewide organization.
鈥淚t鈥檚 exactly the kind of tinder that Bevin needs to ignite his campaign,鈥 writes Mr. Roarty.
Well, maybe. Our own view is that this is a tempest that鈥檚 as flimsy as a tissue, so to speak.
Yes, Bevin鈥檚 done well, and he's already putting up ads with the nose-holding comment. But shows him trailing McConnell by nearly 3 to 1. McConnell is hitting Bevin hard over alleged state bailouts paid to his Connecticut bell factory. 鈥淏ailout Bevin鈥 will find out just how tough a political opponent McConnell is.
McConnell鈥檚 bigger challenge is Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, current Kentucky secretary of State. She鈥檚 running for the seat now that actress Ashley Judd opted not to seek it. The Grimes campaign this week publicized putting her ahead of McConnell by two points. 44 to 42 percent.
With the general election 听so far off, the nose remark will be a dim memory by the time voters turn their full attention to this. Kentucky is a red-leaning state, and, despite Secretary Grimes鈥檚 current lead, many election analysts still rate this as a race that鈥檚 trending toward McConnell.
McConnell is an aggressive campaigner and has a 鈥渕assive鈥 campaign war chest, according to University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. Mitt Romney won 60 percent of the vote in Kentucky last fall, and the state鈥檚 undecided voters are unlikely to break for a Democratic Senate candidate, according to Mr.听Sabato鈥檚 鈥淐rystal Ball鈥 newsletter.
The race might be close, but 鈥渨e still think McConnell is a clear favorite to win, even if it鈥檚 only by a percentage point or two. Despite the troublesome recent news for the minority leader, he is still in decent shape in our eyes,鈥 write Sabato and Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics in Charlottesville.