海角大神

Mitt Romney leaped into the deep waters of debate over the future course of Republican Party policy Tuesday night in a speech near the shores of New Hampshire's Lake Winnipesaukee where the former GOP presidential candidate has a vacation home.

Mr. Romney, who described himself as a 鈥渟evere conservative鈥� during the 2012 campaign, appeared to side with the pragmatic wing of his party with most of his remarks, made at a political fundraiser for the New Hampshire Republican Party. In particular, he warned against shutting down the government in an attempt to strip funds from the Affordable Care Act, known informally as 鈥淥bamacare."

鈥淚 badly want Obamacare to go away, and stripping it of funds has appeal. But we need to exercise great care about any talk of shutting down government,鈥� Romney said. 鈥淲hat would come next when soldiers aren鈥檛 paid, when seniors fear for their Medicare and Social Security, and when the FBI is off duty?鈥�

What would come next, in Romney鈥檚 eyes, is a predictable political failure: Voters would revolt, Obamacare would get its money after all, and Republicans would be hurt at the polls, as Washington conventional wisdom holds they were following the 28-day government shutdown of 1995 and '96.

鈥淚 think there are better ways to remove Obamacare,鈥� he added.

However, he didn鈥檛 go on to say what those notional 鈥渂etter ways鈥� were. Rolling back time and electing him, perhaps?

Romney also urged Republicans to rally behind electable candidates, not those who appeal to the party base but frighten moderates. He didn鈥檛 name any names here 鈥� he did not, for instance, mutter 鈥�Sen. Ted Cruz鈥� under his breath. And he did acknowledge that this advice might be ironic coming from someone who billed himself as the electable choice, only to be proven wrong at the polls.

鈥淢y guess is that every one of the [2016 GOP presidential] contenders would be better than whoever the Democrats put up,鈥� Romney said. 鈥淏ut there will only be one or perhaps two who actually could win the election in November.鈥�

Conservative GOP leaders and tea party activists were dismissive of Romney鈥檚 advice, saying in essence that the speech revealed him as the squish they had suspected all along.

鈥淩omney did not want to fight to repeal Obamacare while he was on the campaign so it is no surprise he would not fight now,鈥� Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin .

鈥淭he last person the conservative movement should turn to for winning advice is Mitt Romney,鈥� added For America chairman Brent Bozell, according to Breitbart.

So what鈥檚 going on here? Why did Romney feel it necessary to offer remarks he must have known would inflame some in his own party?

Well, for one thing, consider the venue: The Granite State is pretty flinty, but it鈥檚 not deep red. As , it鈥檚 one of the most 鈥渆lastic鈥� of US swing states, meaning it鈥檚 possible to persuade large numbers of voters to actually change minds and vote for either party. (Non-elastic swing states are just evenly balanced between Democrats and Republicans, with victory hinging on turnout and party enthusiasm.)

In that context, the Mittster was saying stuff tailored to appeal to his actual physical audience. The relatively moderate New Hampshire GOP is unlikely to support brinkmanship in Washington.

In essence, he was also siding with the wing of the party that pushed him to the nomination. He was always the establishment candidate, backed by lists of governors and elected Republicans in Washington. The party leadership in D.C. remains nervous about the defund Obamacare strategy. It鈥檚 nonleadership figures such as Senator Cruz of Texas and Sen. Mike Lee of Utah who are calling for the ACA fight.

If he鈥檚 going to maintain a role in party politics, as he鈥檚 said he鈥檇 like to do, it鈥檚 unlikely to involve his evolution into a tea party maverick.

Finally, here鈥檚 the wild theory: He doesn鈥檛 mean it. He believes the threat of government shutdown to end Obamacare might work. But he knows he is now so widely discounted in Republican circles that few will heed his advice. So he鈥檚 employing reverse psychology.

鈥淎re we at the point where Romney should tell the GOP the opposite of what he really wants it to do? Might be more effective that way,鈥� on Wednesday.