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Will Rick Perry announce 2016 White House bid?

Rick Perry's announcement Monday in San Antonio may settle whether he'll run for a fourth term as governor 鈥 or open the door to a presidential bid in 2016. But as his 'oops' moment in 2012 signals, he's not predictable.

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Tony Gutierrez/AP/File
Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks in Grapevine, Texas, on June 27. On Monday, Governor Perry has invited friends and supporters to San Antonio and the country鈥檚 largest Caterpillar equipment dealership to announce his future plans. The longest-serving governor in Texas history is expected to reveal if he鈥檒l seek a fourth full term in office next year.

WWRPD? What will Rick Perry do? That鈥檚 a big question in US politics Monday as the current Texas governor and former GOP presidential candidate has invited supporters and friends to join him in San Antonio for an announcement of 鈥渆xciting future plans."

The conventional wisdom is that this exciting future does not include Mr. Perry running in 2014 for a fourth full term as Texas governor.

鈥淭he smart money is on him passing on another bid with an eye on something bigger,鈥 writes Washington Post political reporter Chris Cillizza

After all, why would Perry want the strain and stress of another gubernatorial bid? He鈥檚 already the longest-serving governor in Texas history. Polls show him with a comfortable lead over his most likely primary challenger, Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott. He has nothing left to prove in the Lone Star State.

Well, almost nothing. Polls also show that Texans would prefer the state鈥檚 GOP Sen. Ted Cruz over Perry if both men run for president. And that鈥檚 perhaps the second part of Monday鈥檚 Perry announcement: He may unveil something aimed at helping erase the unfortunate image left by his hapless 2012 campaign, which seemed to show that Texas was as far as his political career would progress.

Perry鈥檚 鈥渙ops鈥 moment in a televised GOP debate, when he uttered that word after forgetting the federal departments he had vowed to eliminate, was one of the lowlights (or highlights, depending on your view) of the entire primary process. It appeared to symbolize the campaign of someone who was just not ready or able to compete for higher office.

鈥淩efurbishing his reputation on the national stage may be what he鈥檚 ultimately seeking,鈥 writes veteran national political reporter David Catanese

Perry has played coy in recent days when asked the 2016 question. It鈥檚 鈥渁n option,鈥 he said Sunday on Fox News.

He鈥檚 unlikely to flatly announce Monday that he鈥檚 running, of course. That鈥檚 not how modern presidential campaigns work, in part due to campaign finance laws that restrict how certain contributions can be used.

Instead, he may say something vague and uplifting about wanting to remain a force in the US political world. Then, he might unveil a new vehicle for his aspirations, such as a "super PAC" that could fund preliminary national travel in the next year or so.

This would clear the way for Attorney General Abbott to succeed Perry in Texas, and allow him to raise money for other politicians, winning new friends and influencing new people.

Or all this could be wrong. As the 鈥渙ops鈥 shows, Perry is not a predictable politician. Former Perry aide Robert Black recently , 鈥渇or those out there trying to read the tea leaves don鈥檛. Because you鈥檙e probably going to be wrong.鈥

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