Ashley Judd for Senate: Could she win?
It鈥檚 true: Kentucky Democrats are talking up actress/activist Ashley Judd as a possible candidate for Senate in 2014. Ms. Judd, an eighth-generation Kentuckian, was a delegate to the Democratic National Convention this summer and is a big fan of President Obama, so it鈥檚 not like this is a completely wacky idea. So far, Judd isn鈥檛 saying 鈥測es鈥� to a run, but she isn鈥檛 saying 鈥渘o,鈥� either.
鈥淚 cherish Kentucky, heart and soul, and while I鈥檓 very honored by the consideration, we have just finished an election, so let鈥檚 focus on coming together to keep moving America鈥檚 families, and especially our kids, forward,鈥� Judd last month.
Charlie Cook鈥檚 Political Report website lists Judd as a possible Democratic nominee in the Kentucky race, so the D.C. punditocracy is paying some attention to this scenario as well.
If she runs, the GOP opponent would be none other than Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, one of the top Republican lawmakers in the United States. Democrats would love to knock off Senator McConnell, in part because the most important thing the GOP could achieve would be 鈥渇or President Obama to be a one-term president.鈥�
Would Judd have a chance against such an experienced and hard-nosed politician?
Well, she鈥檇 certainly attract a lot of attention. As a genuine star who has portrayed Marilyn Monroe (in 1996鈥檚 鈥淣orma Jean & Marilyn鈥�) and costarred in a Cole Porter biopic (2004鈥檚 鈥淒e-Lovely鈥�) and a movie about the tooth fairy (2010鈥檚 鈥淭ooth Fairy鈥�), she鈥檇 have little trouble raising money from Hollywood liberals. Plus, this is a plot that鈥檚 played out on the national stage before. Two words: Al Franken. Senator Franken (D), a professional comedian, knocked off incumbent Norm Coleman in Minnesota in 2008.
So Democrats can dream, can鈥檛 they?
Yes, they can. But eventually they鈥檒l have to open their eyes and see that Judd鈥檚 prospects of beating McConnell aren鈥檛 good.
First, it鈥檚 Kentucky, not Minnesota. It鈥檚 a Republican state. Mitt Romney took 61 percent of the vote there a month ago to Mr. Obama鈥檚 38 percent. The aforementioned Charlie Cook Political Report already judges the 2014 Senate contest to 鈥渓ean Republican.鈥�
One reason Judd鈥檚 name is coming up is because other prominent Kentucky Democrats don鈥檛 want to run and get beat.
Second, Judd鈥檚 not just a Democrat, she鈥檚 a Hollywood Democrat. Her own grandmother recently called her a 鈥淗ollywood liberal.鈥� The GOP has long experience in painting such folks as out-of-touch celebrity nitwits who want to nationalize health care while forcing everyone to drive electric cars with a top speed of 55 miles per hour.
(Yes, Judd is married to a race-car driver. But he鈥檚 Scottish and thus foreign, so that might be a wash, electorally speaking.)
Last, there鈥檚 the matter of bluegrass allegiance. It鈥檚 true that Judd鈥檚 family has deep Kentucky roots. But the state from which she was a delegate to the 2012 Democratic National Convention wasn鈥檛 Kentucky. It was Tennessee! She and husband Dario Franchitti split their time between a Tennessee farm and a home in Scotland. We鈥檇 bet that in Kentucky, the former domicile would be a much bigger political problem for her than the latter.
