Might Mitt Romney snatch Pennsylvania from President Obama?
Could Mitt Romney win Pennsylvania, a state that鈥檚 swung Democratic in every presidential election for the past 20 years? That question comes up because Romney himself is now scheduled to stop in Philadelphia for a rally on Sunday following a burst of GOP-funded Keystone State ads. 聽
At this point in a campaign a candidate鈥檚 time is a precious resource. Mr. Romney鈥檚 surprise visit to Pennsylvania thus suggests that his campaign sees an opening. Either that or they鈥檙e desperate, as Democrats charge.
Right now President Obama maintains an edge in Pennsylvania polling. Entering the race鈥檚 last weekend he leads Romney by 4.6 percentage points in the of major polls conducted in the state.
But that margin is half what it was at the beginning of October. The most recent surveys show the race in Pennsylvania continuing to tighten, according to G. Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., and Michael Young of Michael Young Strategic Research.
The reason for the narrowing margin is that Romney continues to gain on the crucial measure of which candidate would best manage the economy, according to Drs. Madonna and Young. An October Franklin and Marshall poll showed Romney leading Mr. Obama on this question by 47 to 42 percent.
鈥淪omeone didn鈥檛 get the memo about Obama鈥檚 inevitability in the Keystone state,鈥� wrote Madonna and Young on Thursday in a .
Starting earlier this month GOP "super political action committees" began snapping up ad time in Pennsylvania. The Republican National Committee has followed with its own $3 million investment in state spots.
But Democrats insist that for Republicans Pennsylvania is the green light on the end of Daisy鈥檚 dock in 鈥�The Great Gatsby鈥� 鈥� a lure that recedes before them they harder they chase its promise.
The GOP always thinks that this is the year the conservative tilt of the state鈥檚 vast interior will outweigh the Democratic leanings of the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh urban areas, according to Democrats. Yet that hasn鈥檛 happened in presidential races since George H. W. Bush won Pennsylvania in 1988.
Obama campaign officials say their candidate鈥檚 lead in Pennsylvania isn鈥檛 shrinking 鈥� it鈥檚 held relatively steady since the first debate closed the race all across the country. They insist they never expected to win the state by almost double digits, but that they鈥檒l win it nonetheless.
鈥淟ike Republicans did in 鈥�08, Romney鈥檚 throwing money at states where he never built an organization and where he鈥檚 been losing for two years,鈥� said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina in a conference call with reporters earlier this week.
It鈥檚 possible that Romney, resigned to losing Ohio, is trying to find a way to cobble together a winning 270 votes in the Electoral College, and needs Pennsylvania to reach that total. It鈥檚 also possible that the Romney campaign has spotted a trend running toward their guy and is spending money and time in Pennsylvania as a hedge and possible route to 300 electoral votes or more.
Either way, we鈥檒l know in a few days.
