海角大神

It鈥檚 been 10 days since Mitt Romney鈥檚 now-famous 鈥�47 percent鈥� comments became public. Since then countless news stories have chewed over Mr. Romney鈥檚 secretly recorded assertion that 47 percent of US voters see themselves as 鈥渧ictims鈥� and are too dependent on government to vote Republican. Are Romney鈥檚 words 鈥� plus the subsequent media focus 鈥� now dragging down his campaign?

Frankly, we鈥檝e been skeptical the 鈥�47 percent鈥� stuff would have a measurable effect on the polls. Individual events seldom do, no matter what the cable news chattering clique says. When asked directly, many voters may disapprove of such sentiments, but would that really make them more or less likely to vote Romney? Isn鈥檛 it more probable it would just reinforce what they already felt, one way or another?

Yeah, well, we鈥檙e reconsidering that now, for two reasons. The first is that Romney鈥檚 polls worsened fairly quickly after the comments came out. Take , which has been a bit more pro-Romney than other national surveys. It鈥檚 a seven-day, rolling average of numbers. On Sept. 22, the day its sample consisted of people all contacted after Romney鈥檚 words became public, it went from a 46 to 46 percent tied race to a 2 point Obama advantage. Since then it has continued to widen. Yesterday Obama was up by 6, 50 to 44 percent.

As Josh Marshall, the generally liberal editor of : That doesn鈥檛 really prove anything. 鈥淏ut the correlation is extremely tight.鈥�

Looking at national poll averages, plus polls in the key states of Ohio and Florida, George Washington University associate professor of political science John Sides sees a 1 percent swing to Obama from the day before the 鈥�47 percent鈥� became public to Sept. 23.

鈥淗ow confident am I that this 1% shift is due to 47%?鈥� , who previously has been skeptical of the comment鈥檚 immediate political effects. 鈥淢aybe 30%.鈥�

But whatever the numbers say, it鈥檚 clear that the campaigns think the 鈥�47 percent鈥� stuff could be electoral kryptonite. That鈥檚 our second reason. Look at what both campaign teams are actually doing: putting up ads that either highlight (Obama) or explain away (Romney) those fundraiser words.

Friday, for instance, the Obama campaign has released it claims will run in swing states. It contains nothing but Romney鈥檚 own words. While photos of US workers fade in and out, Romney talks about the 47 percent feeling entitled to 鈥渉ealth care, to food, to housing, to you name it."

The Romney campaign, for its part, has released a one-minute, that highlights the ex-Massachusetts governor鈥檚 assertion of compassion.

鈥淢ore Americans are living in poverty than when President Obama took office, and 15 million more are on food stamps,鈥� says Romney, looking straight into the camera. 鈥淧resident Obama and I both care about poor and middle class families. The difference is my policies will make things better for them.... We should measure compassion by how many people can get off welfare and get a good-paying job.鈥�

Of course, there are only a few weeks now until the election. At this point, the Romney campaign probably did not think it would still have to devote time and money to 鈥淢essage: I care鈥� ads, to paraphrase President George H. W. Bush.