Battleground state polls: Are there any positives for Mitt Romney?
There are a bunch of new battleground state polls in the news Friday morning, and at first glance they don鈥檛 look good for Mitt Romney.
The surveyed Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa for instance, and found President Obama ahead among likely voters in all three. And the leads aren鈥檛 margin-of-error stuff 鈥� Mr. Obama鈥檚 up by 5 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Colorado, and 8 points in the Hawkeye State.
In Nevada, Obama鈥檚 up by 3 points, 49 to 46 percent, according to a recent . And the margin is 9 points, 39 to 30 percent. (Thirty percent of likely voters in Mr. Romney鈥檚 home state remain undecided though, so there鈥檚 still room for that to change.)
At second glance these results still don鈥檛 look good for Romney. It鈥檚 not just the margins in these particular surveys 鈥� it鈥檚 the trend in key swing states as well. There have been 21 polls conducted in the 10 most important battleground states since the end of the Democratic convention, notes New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver Friday, and Obama has led all.
鈥淥n average, he has held a six-point lead in these surveys, and he has had close to 50 percent of the vote in them,鈥� writes Mr. Silver on his .
But here鈥檚 what we find interesting 鈥� national polls currently show a closer race. The of major polls has Obama up by only 3.5 points, 48.4 to 44.9. And one of the largest, most professional surveys included in this average, Gallup鈥檚 daily tracking poll, on Thursday had Obama and Romney tied at 47 to 47 percent.
Since when have battleground states been less of a battleground than the nation as a whole?
We鈥檒l examine the two possibilities:
THE STATE POLLS ARE RIGHT. It鈥檚 possible that the state polls are out in front and the national surveys just haven鈥檛 caught up to them yet. As Silver points out, the state surveys mentioned have generally been good ones that call cell phone numbers as well as landlines. RCP鈥檚 rolling average includes some polls conducted some time ago; most of the state polls are new, and may better reflect the political implications of recent events such as the conventions, attacks on US interests in the Middle East, and release of the secret video of Romney speaking at a fundraiser.
It鈥檚 also possible the state polls show the effects of the presidential campaigns. Both the Obama and Romney teams focus their money, time, and ads on battleground states, to the exclusion of others. If one side鈥檚 effort is more effective than that of the other, it might show disproportionate results in key places. 聽
THE NATIONAL POLLS ARE RIGHT. But look, you can鈥檛 just dismiss the full-USA surveys. They鈥檙e larger and tend to be perhaps more professionally run. 鈥淟arger鈥� in this sense also can mean a larger pool of respondents, which aids accuracy. That might be the reason why Gallup, for instance, shows a different result.
Of course, Romney鈥檚 behind in national surveys, too. He just has a smaller margin to make up. His real problem is that it鈥檚 possible to win the national vote and lose the election. (Remember 2000?) The real path to victory is through the battlegrounds, where candidates try to put together state-by-state victories that lead them to the magical number of 270 electoral votes.
And time is ticking by. North Carolina has mailed out absentee ballots. Early voting starts Friday in South Dakota and Idaho. The election is in 46 days. Romney announced his choice of Rep. Paul Ryan as running mate 41 days ago. As a ticket, their campaign is now about half-run.
