To keep or ditch the vice president? That is the reelection question.
Will President Obama dump Joe Biden? Stories that Mr. Obama will name a new running mate for 2012 keep cropping up in the press.
First, the new vice president was to be Hillary Rodham Clinton. More recently, rumors identify New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo as the possible No. 2.
We鈥檒l get to the chances of a Biden-less Obama ticket in a moment. First let鈥檚 pause and recollect that a traditional political role of a veep is to provide balance. If the top of the ticket is from the North (JFK), the second banana is from the South (LBJ). If No. 1 is a conservative (Ronald Reagan), No. 2 is more liberal (George H.W. Bush).
The point of this is to try to neutralize some aspect of the presidential candidate that voters might not like.
鈥淭he outcome of the 鈥榲eepstakes鈥� is far more likely to be based on short term electoral calculations than on long term governance considerations,鈥� noted political scientist Lee Sigelman in a 1997 American Political Science Review article.
But after a president has won, the perceived balance of the ticket can change. Mr. Biden got picked as veep because he was far more experienced than Obama in foreign affairs, for one thing. But now that Obama can campaign as the commander in chief who got Osama bin Laden, Biden鈥檚 perceived strength may be less important.
So, sensing an opening, liberals who say Obama鈥檚 been too conservative start pushing for Governor Cuomo 鈥� scion of a famous liberal family 鈥� as the new No. 2. Party leaders who say the president is too unpopular start pushing Mrs. Clinton to create a Democratic 鈥渄ream ticket鈥� with wider appeal.
That鈥檚 not necessarily how dump-the-veep rumors begin. But the view by some party factions that the ticket should be rebalanced is how they gain currency and get repeated.
So is Biden doomed? Almost certainly not. Rumors are just rumors. And dumping his veep could make Obama look ungrateful and desperate, outweighing any rebalancing gain.
鈥淚n the modern era, dumping the vice president in a president鈥檚 re-election bid has become a sign of a weak presidency,鈥� wrote Jody Baumgartner, an East Carolina University political scientist, in the journal White House Studies in 2007.
