海角大神

Call it a political plague on both your houses, to mangle Shakespeare. But record numbers of American voters are rejecting both major political parties 鈥� Democrat and Republican. Instead, according to new poll findings, they鈥檙e registering to vote as Independents in increasing numbers.

Specifically, according to new Gallup findings, the number of self-declared Independents has climbed to a record 43 percent, the highest number since the pollster began tallying such figures聽 back in 1988 鈥� leaving Democrats and Republicans trailing far behind at 30 percent and 26 percent respectively.

Although polling methods have changed over the years, , 鈥淚t is safe to say the average 30 percent identifying as Democrats last year is the lowest since at least the 1950s.鈥�

As for the GOP, Mr. Jones writes, 鈥淣ot since 1983, the year before Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election victory, have fewer Americans identified as Republicans.鈥�

Why this rejection of 鈥淒鈥� and 鈥淩鈥� in favor of 鈥淚?鈥� Partisan gridlock and dissatisfaction with government, driving favorability ratings for both parties to a point at or near historic lows (36 percent for Democrats, 42 percent for Republicans).

Here, the numbers are more volatile, moving up or down according to political happenings: The afterglow to President Obama鈥檚 reelection in 2012 (when the D鈥檚 enjoyed a brief 51 percent favorability rating), then his party鈥檚 shellacking in the 2014 midterms driving the number back down into the 30s. The collapse of the R鈥檚 favorability to 28 percent after the 2013 government shutdown, then a rise in parallel with the November midterms.

In any case, the trends in public political outlook and perceptions 鈥� including as they relate to political parties 鈥� are not good, experts observers say.

The low voter turnout last November 鈥渓ikely heralds a new stage in the disintegration of the American political order,鈥� warn political scientists Walter Dean Burnham (University of Texas) and Thomas Ferguson (University of Massachusetts) in a piece at . 鈥淚ncreasing numbers of average Americans can no longer stomach voting for parties that only pretend to represent their interests.鈥�

In another recent research piece, professors Martin Gilens (Princeton University) and Benjamin I. Page (Northwestern University) point to why many Americans are turned off by partisan politics based on perceptions about 鈥渨ho really rules.鈥�

"The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy," , "while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence."

But back to party affiliation and what Gallup reports is the rise of Independents.

Like the religious confessional, the voting booth is private and personal, or at least it鈥檚 meant to be. Voting doesn鈥檛 exactly pattern party registration. Reagan Democrats certainly proved that in 1980.

In one of its follow-up questions, Gallup also asks which way Independents are 鈥渓eaning鈥� 鈥� Democrat or Republican.

When 鈥渓eaners鈥� are added to those who identify themselves as D or R, the totals rise to 45 percent as Democrat and 42 percent as Republican.

Writing in the Washington Post, political scientist John Sides at George Washington University says this is more important than formal party affiliation.

鈥淲hy is it more important?鈥� . 鈥淏ecause independents who lean toward a party 鈥� or 鈥榠ndependent leaners鈥� 鈥� behave like partisans, on average. They tend to be loyal to their party鈥檚 candidate in elections. They tend to have favorable views of many political figures in their party. They are not much more likely to identify as ideologically moderate. To be sure, independent leaners are not as partisan as the strongest partisans. But they resemble weaker partisans much more than they do real independents. In actuality, real independents make up just over 10 percent of Americans, and a small fraction of Americans who actually vote.

Still, the trend toward non-party identification is likely to continue.

鈥淕iven historical trends, 2015 could bring a new record, as the percentage identifying as independents typically increases in the year before a presidential election, averaging a 2.5-point increase in the last six such years,鈥� writes Gallup鈥檚 Jeffrey Jones. 鈥淎mericans' frustration with the frequent political stalemate is evident. Continued frustration with the government would likely encourage more Americans to identify as independents this year.鈥�