George W. Bush weighs in on brother Jeb's political future. Dynasty, anyone?
Will the Bush political dynasty continue through 2016 鈥� and perhaps beyond?
Now that the 2014 mid-term elections are behind us and the 2016 presidential election is only 730 days away, it鈥檚 time to crank up the speculating 鈥� including whether former Florida governor Jeb Bush will be in the mix.
By our count, there are at least 16 Republicans considering the presidency 鈥� not counting the adage that every US senator wakes up in the morning, looks in the mirror, and sees a potential president. (See our list of 16 here.)
As Monitor politics writer Linda Feldmann noted in putting together the list, Jeb Bush 鈥渉as the deep political and fundraising connections that come from being a Bush.鈥�
But he has a few problems. Many Americans have had it with dynasties. Father and son John and John Quincy Adams were OK, and maybe cousins Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt; less so the Kennedys and Clintons. Jeb Bush鈥檚 father (the 41st president) is viewed in retrospect with some fondness (jumping out of airplanes and those whimsical socks make us smile), but Jeb鈥檚 brother (43) not so much. Most Americans still think it was wrong to invade Iraq.
鈥淪ome of [Jeb] Bush鈥檚 policy positions could prove challenging among conservative primary voters, even if they are assets in the general election,鈥� according to the Feldmann analysis. 鈥淐hief among them is his support for comprehensive immigration reform. His immigration stance, plus his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican-born wife, gives him entr茅聽into the Latino community, the large and fast-growing voting bloc that went overwhelmingly for Obama聽in November 2012. More appealing to conservatives may be Bush鈥檚 advocacy, through his education think tank, for school choice and tougher testing standards.鈥�
If anything, immigration has become even more of a burr under Republican saddles 鈥� especially now that President Obama says he may issue an executive order on immigration by year鈥檚 end without waiting for Congress to pass comprehensive reform, including relief from deportation to several million people in the聽United States听颈濒濒别驳补濒濒测.听
Mr. Bush (that鈥檚 Jeb) has gotten conflicting advice from family members.
Mother Barbara Bush 鈥� outspoken as usual 鈥� has said 鈥渨e鈥檝e had enough Bushes鈥� in the White House.
Son George P. Bush (who just won his race to become Texas Land Commissioner), told ABC last month that his father is giving 鈥渟erious thought鈥� to a run for the presidency. 鈥淚f you had asked me a few years back, I would have said it was less likely,鈥� he said.
鈥淜ids!鈥� Jeb said (more or less). 鈥淗e didn鈥檛 talk to me.鈥�
Speaking on CBS鈥檚 鈥淔ace the Nation鈥� Sunday, George W. said his younger brother is 鈥渨restling with the decision.鈥�
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 50-50,鈥� the former president said, adding that he would be "all in" for his brother if he decides to run for the office and would do whatever he asks, even if it's to stay behind the scenes. As for their mother's position that enough Bushes have run for president, he said, "Sometimes her prognostications haven't been very accurate."
Any potential Republican candidate has to be thinking about the likely Democratic opposition, specifically Hillary Clinton
If the race ends up being dynasty-versus-dynasty (and the election was held today), Jeb Bush would have a challenge. In the Real Clear Politics polling average, he trails the former secretary of state by 10 percentage points. But among Republicans thinking about their party鈥檚 nomination, he鈥檚 neck-and-neck with Sen. Rand Paul for the top spot.
It may be that any future Bush dynasty jumps past Jeb to George P.
Nobody runs for Texas Land Commissioner 鈥� as important a post as that is in the Lone Star State 鈥� thinking that鈥檚 the pinnacle of their political career.
Politics is the family business, and George P. is an attractive figure. (He first spoke at a Republican National Convention when he was 12 years old.) If nothing else, the fact that his mother was born in Mexico could draw a sizable chunk of the Hispanic vote away from Democrats.
鈥淚f anyone is tempted to dismiss聽George P. Bush聽as a political newcomer running on little more than an impressive name, please reconsider,鈥� the Houston Chronicle declared in its endorsement. 鈥淏ush is the real deal. During his interviews with the editorial board, the Republican candidate for commissioner of the聽General Land Office聽proved himself one of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful candidates of this election season.鈥�
But for now, the political focus is on his dad and the 2016 presidential election.
