海角大神

The marquee governor鈥檚 race of 2014 is on: Florida鈥檚 former Republican governor, Charlie Crist 鈥� now a Democrat 鈥� will face its current Republican governor, Rick Scott, in November.

The outcome of Tuesday鈥檚 primary was never in doubt. Mr. Crist beat former state Sen. Nan Rich (D), 74 percent to 26 percent. Governor Scott beat two little-known candidates with nearly 88 percent of his party鈥檚 vote.

Still, the turnout numbers hint at trouble for Crist.聽 Republican turnout was higher by more than 100,000 votes, in a state with more Democrats than Republicans.

鈥淎 lot of the disaffected are longtime progressive Democrats, who do not really believe in the metamorphosis of Crist,鈥� says Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, Tampa. 鈥淭he second group is older women who are disgusted with the fact that Crist never had the courtesy to debate Nan Rich, who is a longtime, loyal, Democratic woman senator.鈥�

It鈥檚 not that these Democrats won鈥檛 vote for Crist in November. But they might not be inspired to work local phone banks and raise money for him and other Democrats on the ballot. And that could hurt turnout among less-motivated voters, a chronic problem in midterm elections. 聽

Working in Crist鈥檚 favor is the fact that Florida Democrats haven鈥檛 won a governor鈥檚 race in 20 years, and they鈥檙e hungry for victory. 聽

The Sunshine State is the biggest prize of all the 2014 governor鈥檚 races. Now the third most-populous state in the country, Florida is the biggest presidential battleground. Whoever wins the governor鈥檚 office in November will be positioned to lend organizational support to his party鈥檚 presidential nominee in 2016.

But Crist vs. Scott聽 could be an expensive race to the bottom. Neither is all that popular, and they鈥檝e already spent months 鈥� and tens of millions of dollars 鈥� tearing each other down. Party money and spending by outside groups add to the parade of negativity.聽 showed Crist with a 40 percent favorable rating, and Scott with 43 percent job approval.

Crist鈥檚 biggest challenge will be to prove to Democrats he鈥檚 really one of them. Crist was Florida鈥檚 Republican governor from 2007 to 2011, and had served in public office as a Republican almost continuously before then since 1993. In 2008, he was on GOP presidential nominee John McCain鈥檚 short list for running mate.

In 2009, Crist decided not to run for reelection as governor, opting instead to run for Senate in 2010. But the tea party movement had other ideas, and got behind former state House speaker Marco Rubio in the GOP primary. Crist quit the Republican Party to run as an independent, and lost the general election to now-Senator Rubio in a three-way race. When Crist announced he was a Democrat in late 2012, few doubted his motive. Crist vs. Scott was on.

For both men, the challenge will be to overcome a poor public image. A wealthy former hospital executive, Scott has never seemed at ease in public life, and faced a steep learning curve when he first took office.聽 After nearly four years under Scott, Florida鈥檚 economy has improved; unemployment is 6.2 percent, same as the national rate. That could help Scott, as could President Obama鈥檚 low job approval.

Crist鈥檚 problem is that he鈥檚 such a political animal, voters don鈥檛 know if they can trust him. 聽And then there鈥檚 with Mr. Obama. In 2010, when Crist was still a Republican, he greeted Obama with a hug on a visit to Florida 鈥� a picture that played to Crist鈥檚 detriment in his 2010 Senate race. Now, he鈥檚 Obama鈥檚 guy in Florida, and Democrats hope base voters 鈥� including those disaffected women 鈥� will conclude that Crist was really one of them all along. 聽聽

But to independent voters, who aren鈥檛 enamored of Obama, The Hug may not play so well.

Another turnout driver could be a ballot initiative to allow medical marijuana in the state. 聽

鈥淒emocrats think it will draw young voters to the polls,鈥� says Ms. MacManus. Other says it will be as big a draw for conservatives, worried that their kids will have easier access to marijuana, she says.

To pass, the Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative 鈥� a.k.a. Amendment 2 to the state constitution 鈥� must get more than 60 percent of the vote.聽