Scott Walker 2016? Why his 2014 race is getting tighter
| Washington
No governor has more on the line this November than Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Not only is Governor Walker (R) looking to win his state's top job for the third time in four years 鈥� remember the recall vote in 2012? 鈥� he鈥檚 also gearing up to run for president in 2016. But he can鈥檛 get to the Big Show without winning another term in Madison first. And polls show his race against Democrat Mary Burke, wealthy former executive of the Trek bicycle company, has tightened into a dead heat.聽
Ms. Burke won her primary Tuesday against token opposition, and now the sprint to the finish is on.
The latest poll, for the conservative website Human Events, shows Walker and Burke tied at 47 percent each among likely Wisconsin voters. In March, Gravis had Walker up by 5 percentage points. A poll released July 23 by Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee shows Walker at 46 percent and Burke at 45 percent among registered voters.
A source in the Walker camp speaking privately says Wisconsin Democrats are more engaged and energized by the race than Republicans 鈥� a reverse from the national trend, and a worrisome sign for the GOP in a blue-leaning state.
Charles Franklin, polling director at Marquette Law School, does not completely agree with the Walker campaign鈥檚 assessment. His July poll showed slightly more Wisconsin Democrats than Republicans as 鈥渁bsolutely certain鈥� to vote in November, but slightly more Republicans than Democrats said they were 鈥渧ery enthusiastic鈥� about voting.
鈥淢y interpretation at this point is that there is not a strong asymmetry between the two parties,鈥� says Mr. Franklin.
But, he adds, Wisconsin midterm electorates historically tilt somewhat Republican, so the fact that the likely electorate is 鈥渘ot tilting much one way or another, or maybe just a hair pro-Democratic鈥� gives Walker cause for concern.
鈥淚t鈥檚 probably reasonable for him as an incumbent coming up on what amounts to a third election to be beating the bushes pretty hard,鈥� Franklin says.
Walker was first elected governor in 2010, the first tea party wave election, and aggressively pushed through limits on collective bargaining rights for most public employees. That earned him the ire of pro-labor forces, massive protests in and around the state capitol, and a recall election in June 2012. Walker survived, making him the only US governor in history to win a recall vote.
Democrats are still bitter, and would love nothing more than to crush Walker鈥檚 political career. They think they鈥檝e got a winner in Burke. She has served in government: She was the appointed state commerce secretary from 2005 to 2007 and currently serves on the Madison school board. But she has spent the bulk of her career as executive of Trek bicycles, a company co-founded by her father. That gives her a pro-business profile that can attract moderates, and a big bank account that means her campaign won鈥檛 run out of money.
In an , Walker tied Burke to unpopular former Gov. Jim Doyle (D), who appointed her secretary of commerce.
But Burke has fought back, pointing to Walker鈥檚 job creation numbers. At the start of his term, Walker promised 250,000 private-sector jobs in four years, but so far has seen only 100,000 created during his tenure.
Walker鈥檚 job approval has drifted below 50 percent, but President Obama鈥檚 is worse 鈥� 43 percent in Wisconsin, according to Gravis. And as with so many Democrats in competitive races around the country, don鈥檛 expect the president to appear at Burke鈥檚 side anytime soon.
Walker has also taken no chances on fundraising. In the first half of 2014, he raked in as Burke.
But the Walker camp is still sounding the alarm about Big Labor鈥檚 reported plan to spend at least $300 million in the 2014 midterms, focused on five states, including Wisconsin.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be very competitive,鈥� says Doug Kaplan, managing partner at Gravis Marketing. 鈥淲alker is loved on the right, but disdained on the left. He鈥檚 probably the No. 1 target on the left.鈥�
Jennifer Duffy, analyst of governor鈥檚 races at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, calls Wisconsin "pretty evenly divided."
鈥淚t鈥檚 earned its purple,鈥� says Ms. Duffy, who ranks Wisconsin a tossup, along with five other Republican-held governor鈥檚 seats and two Democratic seats. 鈥淚n the recall, Walker did a good job getting out the vote. He just has to make sure the organization is ready again. These candidates are fighting over a very narrow sliver of the vote."
