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Syria strike: Is loss of strategic surprise costing the US?

If and when the US carries out a missile strike, Syria's military will have had ample time to prepare, and Russia will be better positioned to provide Assad real-time intelligence, experts say.

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J. Scott Applewhite/AP
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (l.) and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey arrive for a closed-door intelligence briefing for members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday.

If the US launches cruise missiles against Syria it won鈥檛 come as a surprise to Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 regime. Delay and debate in the US have given the Syrian government lots of warning time to hide weapons and equipment and otherwise attempt to harden itself against possible air strikes.

Does this time slippage matter? Would it end up degrading the effects of any eventual US attack that President Obama might order?

The nation鈥檚 top military officer says it won鈥檛. In congressional appearances this week Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey said US forces in the region can remain alert and on-station for the foreseeable future. It鈥檚 true that Syria has moved some potential targets out of harm鈥檚 way, said Gen. Dempsey. But that activity began days ago, when it first became apparent that the US took seriously evidence that President Assad had gassed his own people.

And 鈥渢ime works both ways,鈥 said Dempsey. US intelligence assets focused on Syria have been able to learn a lot about what the regime has, and where that stuff is stored, as fear of US munitions has caused a flurry of hasty activity. Right now the Syrians don鈥檛 know how much targeting information the US has.

鈥淚鈥檓 confident in the capabilities we can bring to bear to deter and degrade. And it won鈥檛 surprise you to know that we will have not only an initial target set but subsequent target sets should they become necessary,鈥 Dempsey told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

That said it鈥檚 still unfortunate that a US military operation, if one does occur, has taken so long to develop, say some military experts outside government. For one thing, it has given the Russian Navy time to deploy ships to the Mediterranean, giving an ally of Assad the ability to shadow US destroyers.

The Russian reconnaissance vessel SSV-201 Priazovye left the Russian Black Sea Fleet port of Sevastopol Sept. 1, bound for waters off Syria, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). It should have little trouble locating the US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the area, given the electronic emissions of powerful US naval radars.

Cruise missiles, at launch, aren鈥檛 exactly stealth weapons 鈥 they ride hundreds of feet straight up on rockets before wings unfold, their turbofan engines start, and they fly off toward targets. Russia鈥檚 naval assets might be able to provide Syria a crucial cushion of warning time against such an attack.

Syrian military buildings can鈥檛 move, of course. But missile launchers and the generals who command them can.

鈥淏y significantly delaying the potential strike against the Assad regime, not only has the US given Assad considerable time to prepare for the attack in Syria, it has given Russia time to position intelligence assets that can immediately alert the Assad regime of exactly when the [Tomahawk land attack] missiles are launched,鈥 .

The US loss of strategic surprise could also enable the Assad regime to use human shields in an attempt to protect its military assets.

Syrian opposition sources say Scud missiles and launchers have been repositioned next to schools, university dormitories, and government buildings, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, the Syrian government was with conscripts and other troops of suspect loyalty, according to ex-soldiers.

These reports haven鈥檛 been confirmed by outside sources. But the Assad regime has a history of using human shields, according to the National Journal. Last year the UN annual report on Children and Armed Conflict charged that Syrian troops used children as young as 8 years old as shields during raids. This March, Human Rights Watch said Syrian government forces made civilians march in front of them during operations in northern Syria.

The use of human shields may be barbaric, but it鈥檚 鈥渁lso the kind of tactic that, if used during a possible US strike, has the potential to completely deter and degrade the Obama administration鈥檚 plans for quick, relatively painless, and limited action,鈥 writes the National Journal鈥檚 .

Finally, the slow-down in what appeared to be a US rush to conflict has allowed Assad to already , of a sort.

Assad referred to Mr. Obama鈥檚 decision to ask for a congressional vote on possible action in Syria as an 鈥渉istoric American retreat.鈥 According to The New York Times, he鈥檚 told those around him that the West is bluffing in regards to a Syria attack, and that any strike would only be 鈥渃osmetic.鈥

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