Though many of the press accounts stress that the Iranian fighter jets 鈥渕issed鈥� the US Predator drone in the shots they fired, it鈥檚 not likely the Iranians were intentionally trying to shoot down the drone, analysts say.
The Su-25 jets are, after all, combat aircraft, while Predators are slower and less maneuverable. 鈥淢y interpretation is if they had wanted to shoot it down, they could have,鈥� Harmer says. 鈥淭here is simply no comparison between the two aircraft, and as a result it鈥檚 pretty obvious that they didn鈥檛 intend to shoot it down.鈥�
Shooting down a Predator 鈥� even without a pilot in it 鈥� would have increased tensions 鈥渟ubstantially.鈥� Instead, Iran was more intent on sending a message, Harmer says.
It is behavior he saw often in his role with the US Navy Fifth Fleet. He recalls that the Iranians would send their own reconnaissance aircraft 鈥渞ight over鈥� US aircraft carriers.
They would also drop cardboard boxes painted black 鈥� and other items meant to resemble mines 鈥� in the vicinity of US ships.
The Revolutionary Guard would send their small boats to 鈥渟warm鈥� US Navy ships as well.
鈥淲e called it the 鈥榖asic harassment package,鈥� 鈥� Harmer says. 鈥淓very time they get a chance, they鈥檙e going to harass the US.鈥�
Yet it鈥檚 behavior that US military commanders tended not to take too seriously. 鈥淚t wasn鈥檛 really that big a deal because we know they don鈥檛 want to start a war accidentally,鈥� he says.
That said, as the Pentagon noted, the Nov. 1 incident was the first time Iran had ever fired at a US drone. Adds Harmer, 鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen a message quite like this.鈥�
