Though many of the press accounts stress that the Iranian fighter jets 鈥渕issed鈥 the US Predator drone in the shots they fired, it鈥檚 not likely the Iranians were intentionally trying to shoot down the drone, analysts say.
The Su-25 jets are, after all, combat aircraft, while Predators are slower and less maneuverable. 鈥淢y interpretation is if they had wanted to shoot it down, they could have,鈥 Harmer says. 鈥淭here is simply no comparison between the two aircraft, and as a result it鈥檚 pretty obvious that they didn鈥檛 intend to shoot it down.鈥
Shooting down a Predator 鈥 even without a pilot in it 鈥 would have increased tensions 鈥渟ubstantially.鈥 Instead, Iran was more intent on sending a message, Harmer says.
It is behavior he saw often in his role with the US Navy Fifth Fleet. He recalls that the Iranians would send their own reconnaissance aircraft 鈥渞ight over鈥 US aircraft carriers.
They would also drop cardboard boxes painted black 鈥 and other items meant to resemble mines 鈥 in the vicinity of US ships.
The Revolutionary Guard would send their small boats to 鈥渟warm鈥 US Navy ships as well.
鈥淲e called it the 鈥榖asic harassment package,鈥 鈥 Harmer says. 鈥淓very time they get a chance, they鈥檙e going to harass the US.鈥
Yet it鈥檚 behavior that US military commanders tended not to take too seriously. 鈥淚t wasn鈥檛 really that big a deal because we know they don鈥檛 want to start a war accidentally,鈥 he says.
That said, as the Pentagon noted, the Nov. 1 incident was the first time Iran had ever fired at a US drone. Adds Harmer, 鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen a message quite like this.鈥