Obama gets bigger 'bounce' than Romney did, but it鈥檚 more like a 'blip'
Early returns are in, and it looks like President Obama got more of a poll bounce right after his party鈥檚 convention than Mitt Romney did out of the GOP鈥檚 big event.
Gallup鈥檚 daily tracking poll for Friday put Obama's job approval rating at 52 percent, the highest it鈥檚 been since the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a聽three-point lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters (48-45 percent), up from Obama's one-point margin over the last nine days.
鈥淚t is possible that these upticks are short-lived and that the race will devolve back to a parity by next week,鈥� Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport wrote in his morning-after analysis. 鈥淥n the other hand, if Obama builds on and sustains his higher job approval rating and lead over Romney, it could signal a possible resetting of the presidential race as it enters the remaining three-and-a-half weeks before the first debate on Oct. 3.鈥�
By comparison, Romney鈥檚 standing bounced not at all after last week鈥檚 Republican convention.
Morning-after convention polls can evaporate pretty quickly, and Friday鈥檚 grim jobs report just hours after Obama鈥檚 convention speech Thursday night may hasten that. Plus, post-convention bounces going back to 1964 have averaged a healthier five points. Still, an upticked three point plus for Obama in a very close race can make the difference between a second term in office and packing his bags for Chicago come January.
A fuller picture of recent polls brings a mixed picture for Obama (and for Romney).
An Ipsos/Reuters Poll sees 鈥渢he beginning of a convention bump for the President.鈥� Obama is up 2 points to 46 percent and Romney down one point to 44 percent among likely voters.
In addition, according to Ipsos/Reuters, Obama鈥檚 ratings on his personal attributes have increased across some metrics: 鈥淭ough enough for the job鈥� is up 4 points to 42 percent; 鈥淩epresents America鈥� is up 4 points to 44 percent; 鈥淲ill protect American jobs鈥� is up 4 points to 40 percent; 鈥淐an be effective in Washington鈥� is up 4 points to 38 percent; 鈥淧residential鈥� is up 3 points to 45 percent; 鈥淯nderstands people like me鈥� is up 3 points to 44 percent; and 鈥淗as the right values鈥� is up 3 points to 44 percent.
Note that all of those figures are in the 40s 鈥� not great marks.
Meanwhile, a new poll for The Hill newspaper finds that a majority of voters believe the country is worse off today than it was four years ago (52 percent) and that President Obama does not deserve reelection (54 percent). The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Romney ahead of Obama among voters nationwide by one point (46-45 percent).
On the other hand, RealClearPolitics has Obama ahead by just under one point, but 鈥� perhaps more significantly 鈥� ahead at least slightly in 10 of 12 battleground states. (All except North Carolina and Missouri.)
Another measure of convention performance 鈥� Obama鈥檚 acceptance speech 鈥� has gotten mixed reviews at best. Too low-key, some are saying, not enough detail or forward-looking ideas for a second term.
Newsweek/Daily Beast special correspondent Michael Tomasky (no great fan of the Romney/Ryan ticket) didn鈥檛 hold back: 鈥淏arack Obama gave a dull and pedestrian speech tonight, with nary an interesting thematic device, policy detail, or even one turn of phrase.鈥�
But Howard Kurtz, Newsweek鈥檚 Washington bureau chief says he鈥檚 found out why 鈥渢he president deliberately dialed it down, stopping well short of the altitudes he is capable of reaching.鈥�
鈥淲hile the pundits are generally calling the president鈥檚 Thursday night address mediocre, Obama and his advisers had taken great pains to avoid soaring rhetoric that聽might have been derided as empty,鈥� Kurtz writes on Newsweek鈥檚 Daily Beast website. 鈥淚ndeed, they extensively tested the president鈥檚 speech in dial groups, a type of focus group where voters twist dials to register approval or disapproval of specific passages, and say it tested off the charts. The reaction, they say, was more positive than to Obama鈥檚 2008 acceptance speech in Denver.鈥�
Election Day two months from now will tell whether or not that ploy paid off for Obama.
