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Obama gaffe: why judging the economy is a no-win

Broad statements about the economy 鈥 good or bad 鈥 are a losing proposition for President Obama. Team Romney will exploit them either way.

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J. Scott Applewhite/AP
President Obama talks about the economy in the briefing room of the White House on June 8.

President Obama鈥檚 political fate hangs largely on how the US economy does in the next several months. And with a balky Congress and European economies teetering on the edge, there鈥檚 not a whole lot he can do.

What Mr. Obama can control is how he talks about the economy, and on that score, he鈥檚 discovered the perils of speaking off the cuff. His remark at last Friday鈥檚 press conference 鈥 鈥渢he private sector is doing fine鈥 鈥 was a misstatement, made as part of his plea to Congress to fund public-sector jobs. Within a few hours, he had clarified himself.聽

鈥淚t is absolutely clear that the economy is not doing fine,鈥 Obama told reporters after a meeting with the president of the Philippines. 鈥淭hat's the reason I had the press conference.鈥

Team Romney is finding good value in both comments. In a 24-hour period, the campaign put out two Web videos on the original 鈥減rivate sector fine鈥 statement. The second,聽, juxtaposes the comment with May鈥檚 weak jobs numbers. The first,聽, highlights stories of people struggling with bankruptcy and unemployment.

But Team Obama fares no better by arguing the economy is 鈥渘ot fine.鈥 When former Obama 鈥渃ar czar鈥 Steven Rattner amplified the president鈥檚 clarification Monday morning on MSNBC, noting that close to 5 million private-sector jobs have disappeared since the beginning of the recession, the Republican National Committee immediately did an e-mail blast with the video clip.

鈥淚 think you have a hard time saying the private sector is doing fine,鈥 Mr. Rattner said.

In short, Obama can鈥檛 win. If he makes a broadly positive assertion about the economy 鈥 arguably defensible for a president trying to reassure the markets 鈥 he鈥檚 accused of being out of touch. If he says something broadly negative, he becomes Debbie Downer, risking the appearance of talking the economy into another recession.

Like many of Mitt Romney鈥檚 easily exploited comments 鈥 鈥 Obama鈥檚 was taken out of context. He was contrasting the private sector, which at least is still gaining jobs, with the public sector, which is shrinking. The overarching message was a plea to Congress to fund more firefighters, police, and teachers.

Obama might decide the way to prevent future such mishaps is to avoid unscripted remarks in public. But that鈥檚 hard to do when you鈥檙e president, even one who gives few press conferences. Obama, famous for his frequent use of a TelePrompTer, knows that he has to be careful with his words 鈥 just as Romney, his November opponent, is learning.

Between now and Election Day, Obama can鈥檛 avoid discussing the economy, by far the most important issue for voters. He needs to show middle-class voters he鈥檚 aware of their fears and challenges. He also has to be super-careful not to have a 鈥済rocery scanner鈥 moment 鈥 like the apocryphal story about President George H.W. Bush, who was portrayed in the press as being amazed by everyday technology at the supermarket, a story that was subsequently proven false. That event聽 took place in February 1992, and stuck with him all the way to Election Day, when he lost.

But Obama is not the first President Bush, whose patrician background lent itself to a narrative of being out of touch with average folks. Obama is in some ways more similar to Sen. John McCain, the GOP鈥檚 2008 nominee, who asserted right before the financial collapse that 鈥渢he fundamentals of our economy are strong.鈥

The remark made Senator McCain look ill-informed on the state of the economy. Ditto Obama鈥檚 remark, even though he and his team immediately made it clear that he does not believe the economy is strong.

The Romney campaign nevertheless appears ready to pound the 鈥減rivate sector is doing fine鈥 comment all the way to November. Team Obama is also banging hard on Romney鈥檚 response 鈥 that Washington shouldn鈥檛 be funding more firefighters, police, and teachers. The campaign morning.

Obama supporters suggest that most voters aren鈥檛 paying close attention yet and won鈥檛 be affected by presidential comments made five months before the election. But that might be wishful thinking. Just as Team Obama is recycling Romney gaffes with abandon, Team Romney is likely to do the same all the way to Election Day.

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