Wisconsin recall vote: Why didn't Obama campaign there?
| Washington
On the eve of Tuesday鈥檚 Wisconsin recall vote, a major 鈥渨hat if鈥� burns brightly: Should President Obama have gone to the Badger State to campaign?
After all, the outcome of the battle between Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, will be seen as a harbinger of the result in November鈥檚 presidential race. So shouldn鈥檛 Mr. Obama have wanted to defend his turf in person?
Not necessarily. Here鈥檚 why:
鈥� The Wisconsin recall is in fact not a true microcosm of the November election. It is a special election, driven by local factors and personalities. The spark was Governor Walker鈥檚 move to cut collective bargaining rights for most public workers, but it has morphed into a rematch of the 2010 gubernatorial race.
鈥� The recall election has become highly polarized. Given Wisconsin鈥檚 status as a battleground state in presidential politics, Obama can ill afford to alienate the critical independent vote.
鈥� Walker has led in the polls all along, albeit not by a wide margin. If Obama chose to campaign in Wisconsin in person, that would raise the stakes for him personally in a race that is already an uphill battle. Team Obama鈥檚 calculation appears to be that there鈥檚 less upside than downside to his jumping in.
鈥� Obama has not been able to turn around losing efforts in past high-profile campaigns, and he doesn鈥檛 want to risk adding to that narrative. In 2009, he campaigned for both then-New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, both of whom lost. His highest-profile flop may have been Massachusetts, where he campaigned for state Attorney General Martha Coakley only to see her lose to now-Sen. Scott Brown (R).
The counterargument is that Obama could come in and help energize the Democratic base 鈥� useful both for the recall election and for November. Certainly, the Republicans are thrilled that the recall has provided a rallying point to get organized for the presidential contest. If Walker wins, that will give Wisconsin Republicans a burst of energy and optimism that Mitt Romney can win their state鈥檚 electoral votes for the first time since President Reagan won Wisconsin in 1984.
Wisconsin isn鈥檛 a must-win for Mr. Romney, but if Obama starts to lose altitude there, it鈥檚 a sign that he鈥檚 in trouble broadly across the map of battleground states. He won Wisconsin in 2008 by 14 percentage points.
Some on-scene observers say Obama鈥檚 involvement would have been a no-lose prospect. Democratic pollster Paul Maslin, who is based in Wisconsin鈥檚 capital, Madison, notes to The Washington Post that Obama and Walker are both campaigning on signs of improvement in the economy.
鈥淚n that context, sure he should have come, and yes he will be blamed. But it won鈥檛 matter all that much in the end,鈥� Mr. Maslin told the Post. 鈥淓verybody is overplaying the national implications of this.鈥�
In other words, the argument goes, Obama might as well have dipped into Wisconsin for an appearance or two. After all, he was in nearby Chicago and Minneapolis for fundraisers just last week. There are fully five months until the November election, and what happens in Wisconsin on June 5 won鈥檛 make or break the presidential race either way. And besides, a presidential visit would certainly have bucked up organized labor, a critical piece of Obama鈥檚 base and ground forces.
But the president has proved to be a cautious political player, in some respects, and made a calculation that he should sit this one out.
Top Obama strategist David Axelrod argues that the president is 鈥渨ell-represented鈥� in Wisconsin. Speaking with reporters on Sunday, Mr. Axelrod noted that former President Clinton and Democratic chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz were in Wisconsin. And the Democrats have 鈥渁n army of lawyers there ready to protect the vote on Tuesday,鈥� he told reporters.
In addition, Obama鈥檚 team has opened at least a dozen offices around the state, according to news reports.
