Will Lindsey Graham face a runoff because of his Iran war support?
| Fort Mill, S.C.
One by one, the Republican candidates walk to the front of a cavernous church to address a mostly elderly group of voters gathered on a midweek evening in this solidly conservative corner of South Carolina.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, the four-term GOP incumbent they鈥檙e hoping to unseat, is not among them. A longtime fixture of South Carolina politics and a golfing buddy of President Donald Trump, Mr. Graham has not faced a serious primary threat in years.
Lately, however, there have been faint flashes of discontent. Senator Graham has been one of the most dogged and high-profile advocates for the U.S.-Israel war against Iran 鈥� which polls show has grown increasingly unpopular, even among Republicans.
Why We Wrote This
Lindsey Graham is a powerful Senate incumbent. But the South Carolina Republican's promotion of the Iran war appears to be taking a toll with voters, raising doubts about whether he鈥檒l surpass the 50% needed to avoid a runoff in Tuesday鈥檚 GOP primary.
conducted late last month by The Citadel raised some eyebrows when it showed Mr. Graham falling short of the 50% needed in the June 9 primary vote to avoid a runoff.
To be clear, Mr. Graham is on track to win reelection, probably handily. As chair of the powerful Senate Budget Committee, with close ties to the president as well as powerbrokers in South Carolina, he can point to a long track record of delivering for his state. Though he here, his incumbency is a powerful and self-reinforcing factor.
Beverly Hice, a retired business owner who went to see the other GOP candidates at the forum in Fort Mill, says she鈥檚 鈥渘ot really fond鈥� of Mr. Graham, but admits she鈥檚 likely to wind up voting for him anyway. He鈥檚 鈥渁 shoo-in,鈥� Ms. Hice says.
Mr. Graham鈥檚 political longevity is in many ways testament to his adaptive brand of conservatism. Once seen as a problem-solver who worked with Democrats on immigration reform during the Obama administration, he has pivoted during the Trump era toward a more pugnacious populism 鈥� and was rewarded with a place in Mr. Trump鈥檚 inner circle. from Mr. Trump鈥檚 feud with Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who was considered a maverick among Republicans and had been Mr. Graham鈥檚 mentor and friend in the Senate before his death in 2018.
鈥淗e knows which way the political wind blows,鈥� says Scott Huffmon, a political scientist who runs the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina. 鈥淧eople say, 鈥極h we need to get Lindsey Graham out.鈥� But he always ends up in the right place at the right time.鈥�
On the Iran war, though, Mr. Graham early on staked out a prominent and uncompromising position, making the case on television and on social media, and doubling down even as the military mission appeared to stall. Indeed, he is more closely identified with the conflict than perhaps any other lawmaker in Washington, having boasted about his to go to war.
As a result, any dip in Mr. Graham鈥檚 own political support might be an indicator of how voters are feeling about the war 鈥� and the resulting run-up in the price of gas and other staples 鈥� in a deep-red state where are difficult to afford.
Mark Lynch stages a challenge
Of the five Republicans running against Mr. Graham, four are polling in the single digits. Another candidate, attorney and Project 2025 architect Paul Dans, dropped out of the race in April after failing to gain much traction. The closest remaining challenger, Mark Lynch, was 10 percentage points behind Mr. Graham (46% to 36%) in the Citadel poll, and even further behind in by the Trafalgar Group (52% to 28%). If no candidate receives more than half of votes cast, the primary will proceed to a runoff.
Mr. Lynch, who owns an appliance store in Greenville, is financing his campaign with $5 million from his and his wife鈥檚 retirement fund. He says Mr. Graham鈥檚 voting record shows he isn鈥檛 a true conservative 鈥� that as Budget Committee chair, Mr. Graham failed to rein in deficit spending while advocating for raising the eligibility age for Social Security benefits. (Mr. Graham鈥檚 campaign has highlighted his role in passing Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill,鈥� which
But Mr. Lynch鈥檚 sharpest attacks are aimed at Mr. Graham鈥檚 hawkish foreign policy positions and his support for Israel. Conservatives in South Carolina generally supported Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to strike Iran in order to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, but many are growing concerned as the war drags on, Mr. Lynch says, adding that Mr. Graham appears to be on the side of prolonging rather than ending the fighting.
鈥淧eople are tired of him getting [the United States] into endless, needless wars,鈥� he says in an interview.
Abby Zilch, a spokesperson for Mr. Graham, says Mr. Lynch is 鈥渁 perpetually failed candidate who will say anything for attention.鈥� Mr. Lynch, she says in an email, rejects Mr. Trump鈥檚 agenda, and 鈥渨ants 鈥榤ore Massies鈥� in Congress who relentlessly oppose the President,鈥� referring to Kentucky GOP Rep. Thomas Massie, who lost his primary in May to a Trump-endorsed opponent, and who has strongly opposed the Iran war.
after the candidate expressed support for both Mr. Massie and former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who resigned from Congress in January after a falling-out with Mr. Trump. Mr. Lynch says he was praising the two lawmakers鈥� conservative voting records, not their opposition to Mr. Trump, whom he has described as 鈥渙ne of the greatest presidents we鈥檝e ever had.鈥�
Mr. Lynch pleaded guilty in 1984 to cocaine trafficking and was treated for drug addiction. . He insists that his long-shot campaign is getting traction, despite being heavily outspent by an incumbent with and national network of donors.
The winner of the Republican primary is expected to face Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who is dominating the Democratic primary race. In 2020, Mr. Graham easily defeated Jaime Harrison, a former state Democratic Party chairman who raked in tens of millions of dollars for his campaign, mostly from out-of-state donors and left-leaning national groups.
An interventionist record
Other critics on the right have cast Mr. Graham as a warmonger who isn鈥檛 focused on his state.
This spring, Mr. Graham found himself the target of tabloid mockery, with the outlet TMZ of the 70-year-old senator, who is unmarried and has no children, at Disney World as the United States was waging a military campaign abroad and contending with a government shutdown at home.
In March, after Mr. Graham publicly urged the administration to occupy Iran鈥檚 Kharg Island and invoked the capture of Iwo Jima during World War II, Republican Rep. Nancy Mace, who is running for governor in South Carolina, .
鈥淟indsey Graham needs to be removed from the Situation Room. I don鈥檛 want to hear one word from a guy with no kids, desperately sending our sons and daughters into war on the ground in Iran,鈥� Ms. Mace wrote. He later , saying its oil facilities could be destroyed from the air.
Still, many Republican voters here say the decision to go to war with Iran was Mr. Trump鈥檚, and that鈥檚 enough for them. Mr. Trump wants 鈥渢o protect America,鈥� says Frank Webb, a voter in Fort Mill who works in retail. He says gas prices went up more under President Joe Biden and he doesn鈥檛 fault Mr. Trump for recent price spikes.
As for Mr. Graham, 鈥淗e鈥檚 got a great relationship with our president, and that鈥檚 kind of like the key to the game,鈥� Mr. Webb says. 鈥淚 mean, having him appear in the White House is always great.鈥�
A three-decade rise
Mr. Graham was first elected to the U.S. House in 1994, when Republicans won control of Congress for the first time in 40 years, part of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich鈥檚 鈥淐ontract With America.鈥� In 2002, he won the Senate seat previously held by Strom Thurmond, a segregationist Democrat turned Republican who was one of the longest-serving U.S. senators in history (47 years).
Though he has shifted his free-market conservatism to match the more protectionist Trump-era zeitgeist, when it comes to foreign policy Mr. Graham has been a consistent hawk. 鈥淗e鈥檚 very much someone who believes the world is a better place with a strong and robust American foreign policy,鈥� says Jon Seaton, who advised Mr. Graham in 2015 when he sought the GOP nomination for president, only to drop out before the first primary votes were cast.
This includes his pro-Israel advocacy, a stance . Support for Israel 鈥渋s not a finger-in-the-wind position for him. He believes it in his core,鈥� says Mr. Seaton, who is now CEO of Echo Canyon Consulting.
In an interview in March with The Post and Courier of Charleston, Mr. Graham said he wasn鈥檛 deterred by naysayers when it comes to his stance on Iran 鈥� or anything else. 鈥� when I know what the hell I鈥檓 talking about. You don鈥檛 have to agree with me, but I believe I know what I鈥檓 talking about. And when I convince myself of something, I鈥檓 a force to be reckoned with,鈥� he said.
He told The Post and Courier that he wasn鈥檛 afraid to take positions or voice opinions that opened him up to criticism, even if it led to electoral defeat. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e scared of losing your job, you cannot be a very good senator,鈥� he said.
