In Texas, a contentious Republican primary goes down to the wire
| Denton and Little Elm, Texas
The Republican primary for this year鈥檚 U.S. Senate election in Texas began, unofficially, two years ago with shots fired over social media.
鈥淚t will be difficult for [GOP Sen. John Cornyn] to be an effective leader since he is anti-Trump, anti-gun, and will be focused on his highly competitive primary campaign in 2026,鈥� wrote Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. 鈥淩epublicans deserve better.鈥�
Senator Cornyn 鈥� a veteran incumbent who has held his seat since 2003, spent six years in Senate leadership, and chaired the party鈥檚 Senate campaign arm 鈥� exactly one minute later: 鈥淗ard to run from prison, Ken.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
The fierce primary battle for the Republican nod in Texas鈥� U.S. Senate race illustrates tensions between factions of the GOP. Some national Republicans are concerned the seat could be at risk, even in a state that hasn鈥檛 elected a Democrat statewide in three decades.
The election is now days away, and recent polls are showing Mr. Paxton with a narrow lead. With U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt also on the ballot, the bitter and expensive primary could be headed for a two-candidate runoff election in May.
In one sense, the race is a typical clash between an 鈥渆stablishment鈥� figure and more hard-line, partisan challengers. But unseating a longtime incumbent is an inherently risky move for a party. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has thrown its support behind Senator Cornyn, warning that nominating a controversial figure like Attorney General Paxton could threaten the GOP鈥檚 decades-long control of Texas. Mr. Paxton has the backing of MAGA-affiliated groups like the late Charlie Kirk鈥檚 Turning Point Action, in a race that is spotlighting bitter tensions between the Trump-era GOP and the party鈥檚 old guard. So far, President Donald Trump himself has stayed out of it, saying only that he likes all the candidates.
鈥淩ight now, we鈥檙e seeing signs that there isn鈥檛 a lot of party spirit鈥� among Texas Republicans, says James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.
鈥淗istorically, Republicans have been able to close those gaps鈥� and unify around the primary winner, he adds. 鈥淏ut what Republican elites have been fearing is coming true. This primary is going to leave a lot of deep bruises on the Republican side.鈥�
Whoever emerges as the victor will face the winner of the March 3 Democratic primary. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are driving up enthusiasm and high early voter turnout in that race.
An establishment senator attempts to adapt
During his four terms in the U.S. Senate, Mr. Cornyn has made some adjustments to his tone and policies as his party has. The Bush-era GOP 鈥� which included many fiscal conservatives with more moderate views on social issues 鈥� has evolved into a more populist party that places a higher value on culture-war issues and often views working across party lines as betrayal.
Senator Cornyn has, at times, struggled to adapt.
In 2016, the Texas senator expressed concern that Mr. Trump could be 鈥渁n albatross鈥� for down-ballot GOP candidates. He voted to certify President Joe Biden鈥檚 2020 victory citing a lack of evidence for alleged voter fraud. He condemned the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, but later voted against forming a commission to investigate the insurrection. A final straw for some Republicans came in 2022, when he led the passage of a gun-safety law through Congress in the wake of the mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, in which 19 children and two teachers were killed.
A narrow majority of Texas Republicans say they approve of the job he鈥檚 doing 鈥� 51%, according to the Texas Politics Project 鈥� but most polls have shown him running behind Mr. Paxton in the primary contest. The fact that Mr. Cornyn has managed to stay competitive is in part thanks to the support he鈥檚 been getting from national Republicans.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent to donors this month saying that Senator Cornyn 鈥渋s the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup.鈥�
鈥淧axton puts the seat at risk,鈥� the memo stressed. 鈥淲e cannot take Texas for granted.鈥�
Last week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune 聽that the Texas seat could flip if Mr. Cornyn loses the primary, 鈥渄epending on who the Democrats nominate.鈥�
This establishment support has helped bring in tens of millions of dollars in donations. The Cornyn campaign ended 2025 with about $6 million in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission data. Mr. Paxton, meanwhile, ended 2025 with half that.
A MAGA firebrand draws loyalty
But Mr. Paxton is already a household name in Texas 鈥� and widely widely popular among the state鈥檚 conservative base. Having ridden the tea party wave to become Texas Attorney General in 2014, he has fashioned himself into a MAGA warrior.
While Senator Cornyn was preparing to vote to certify the 2020 election, Mr. Paxton was onstage at the National Mall with Mr. Trump at his 鈥淪top the Steal鈥� rally, where the president urged supporters to go to the Capitol. Prior to that, Mr. Paxton had sued to void the election results in four states, alleging voter fraud. (The U.S. Supreme Court dismissed the case for lack of standing.) During the years when Mr. Trump was out of power, Mr. Paxton sued the Biden administration聽.
This pugilistic approach has won him deep support from the conservative grassroots. Despite his fundraising deficit, he has consistently led Senator Cornyn in the polls.
鈥淗is supporters are incredibly loyal to him,鈥� says Ren茅e Cross, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
罢丑别听 show Mr. Paxton leading by anywhere from one to 12 points 鈥� despite a litany of public and private scandals that have surrounded him for years.
He faced charges of securities fraud for a decade, finally settling the case in 2024. The Republican-controlled state legislature impeached him in 2023 on charges of bribery and abuse of office. (He was acquitted by the state Senate.) Last summer, his wife, Angela 鈥� a state senator and a devout 海角大神 鈥撀� that she had filed for divorce 鈥渙n biblical grounds.鈥� In court filings, she alleged adultery.
At least one聽 in the state broke with Mr. Paxton after the divorce became public. The Cornyn campaign launched a parody dating website highlighting the scandals.
But Paxton supporters interviewed by the Monitor said the controversies didn鈥檛 matter to them.
鈥淯nfortunately, when it鈥檚 politics, we go back to middle school, and it gets childish and it gets petty,鈥� said Tomas Mendoza, at a campaign event for Representative Hunt last week in Denton, outside of the Dallas-Fort Worth area.
Mr. Mendoza had already voted for Mr. Paxton, but as a public official 鈥� he鈥檚 a city council member in nearby Justin 鈥� he said he still wants to get to know all the candidates.
The corruption attacks against the attorney general are just political opportunism, he added. He felt he couldn鈥檛 judge Mr. Paxton over his divorce, either.
鈥淚t happens in the best families, and I wish that was not the case,鈥� he said.
Someone else who has refrained from attacking Mr. Paxton鈥檚 scandals is Representative Hunt. At the campaign event that night, the two-term congressman and former Army officer only criticized the attorney general鈥檚 age, noting that if elected he would be serving into his 70s.
Trump declines to endorse in a tight race
Also a staunch conservative and one of just five Black Republicans in Congress, Representative Hunt鈥檚 presence in the race makes it more likely that no candidate will achieve more than 50% of the vote on Tuesday, meaning the top two vote-getters would head to a runoff in May.
Dragging out what has already been an expensive and vitriolic race worries many Republican Party leaders, who have reportedly been pleading with Mr. Trump to make an endorsement in the race.
But, so far, the president has been doing the opposite. Last week, he appeared with all three candidates at an event in Corpus Christi to promote his energy policies.
鈥淚 support all three,鈥� he said two weeks ago. 鈥淭hey鈥檝e all supported me. They鈥檙e all good. And you鈥檙e supposed to pick one, so we鈥檒l see what happens.鈥�
For some Paxton supporters, the president鈥檚 endorsement isn鈥檛 necessary.
A few dozen had gathered early in the morning last week at a bar in Little Elm, a Dallas suburb, for a campaign event with the attorney general. Because of the last-minute event in Corpus Christi, Mr. Paxton didn鈥檛 show.
None of them minded being stood up. They already knew what they needed to know about the two front-runners in the race.
鈥淜en Paxton has always stood up for the things that mattered to us and never failed with that, which is the opposite of Cornyn,鈥� said Jerry Fuller, co-founder of a local conservative activist group.
鈥淚鈥檓 not waiting to see if Trump endorses Paxton or not. I really don鈥檛 care,鈥� he added. 鈥淲e made up our mind a long time before Trump did.鈥�
In addition to this story, the Monitor also reported on the Democratic primary in Texas鈥� U.S. Senate race. Read it here.
