Texas Senate race sets up moderates vs. fighters 鈥� in both parties
| Austin, Texas
As the saying goes, a week is a lifetime in politics. For recent evidence, look to Texas.
The state didn鈥檛 have a confirmed congressional district map at the start of last week. Politicians on both sides of the aisle weren鈥檛 sure whether they should retire, or 鈥� they should run again. Uncertainty around the fate of President Donald Trump鈥檚 push for state lawmakers to create five additional Republican seats in Congress hung thick in the air.
Now, the state has a congressional map approved by the U.S. Supreme Court. But one of the more compelling races in the country 鈥� for a seat in the U.S. Senate 鈥� has also taken shape as candidates have solidified their running plans. The five-person race in 2026 could not only make or break the GOP鈥檚 three-seat Senate majority for the following two years, but it could also help define the identity of the two major parties going forward.
Why We Wrote This
It鈥檚 been a big month for politics in Texas, after the Supreme Court approved redistricted congressional maps and top candidates solidified running plans. The Senate race emerged as a marquee race with distinct choices in both the Democratic and GOP primaries.
Texas is a deeply conservative state; it鈥檚 been three decades since a Democrat last won a statewide race here. What is popular with this state鈥檚 voters will not reflect the entirety of the country. Yet questions over the candidates鈥� style and substance here mirror national debates over what types of politicians resonate most with voters in this political moment.
Who will those voters choose among the diverse array of candidates? The experienced and conservative incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn? Or his arguably more conservative 鈥� but more scandal-marked 鈥� primary opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton? U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also running on the Republican side, and has fared reasonably well in early polling.
For Democrats, will they choose the youthful, faith-guided progressive in state Rep. James Talarico? Or the firebrand, and social media superstar, Rep. Jasmine Crockett?
In a way, this election is a combination of all the questions that have dominated Texas politics for the past three decades. How conservative will the Republican nominee be? What will it take for a Democrat to end the party鈥檚 statewide losing streak? With the primaries in four months, and the general election in 11, the answers are far away. But the race is shaping up to be one of the defining contests of this election cycle.
鈥淲e鈥檙e even more polarized now鈥� than in recent elections, says Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
Voters will face a choice, he adds: 鈥淲ho鈥檚 the better fit for their ideological vision, and who can win?鈥�
The red half
Since first joining the Senate in 2002, Mr. Cornyn is facing perhaps the toughest reelection fight of his career. Over the decades, he has navigated his party鈥檚 gradual . Now, however, the GOP is more ideologically conservative than ever, and it鈥檚 beholden to the singular influence of Mr. Trump.
Senator Cornyn 鈥渉as been able to adapt as needed,鈥� says Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston. But 鈥渋t was harder for him to adapt in the Trump era.鈥�
Mr. Cornyn, Dr. Jones adds, faces the prospect of his primary opponents 鈥渞emind[ing] Texas Republican voters of every center-right or compromise position [he] has taken over the past decade.鈥�
This includes helping to shepherd a gun-safety bill through Congress following a mass shooting in 2022 at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. It also includes his skepticism of Mr. Trump over the years.
Mr. Paxton, meanwhile, brought a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in four states because of alleged fraud. (The U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against him, stating that he did not have standing to sue and that there was no evidence of widespread fraud.)
Unfortunately for Mr. Paxton, his conservative bona fides are clashing with a long history of personal and political controversy. For a decade, he faced charges of securities fraud. (He聽 last year.) In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas legislature impeached him on charges of bribery and abuse of office. (The state Senate acquitted him in votes along party lines.) Most recently, his wife, Angela 鈥� a state senator and a devout 海角大神 鈥撀� that she was filing for divorce 鈥渙n biblical grounds.鈥� In court filings, she alleged adultery.
have shown Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton in a virtual dead heat, but that baggage should be enough to render Mr. Paxton an unviable candidate in a general election, some Republicans argue.
鈥淩eligious conservatives in the party are not happy with Paxton,鈥� says Gary Polland, editor in chief of the Texas Conservative Review, an online newsletter.
The GOP鈥檚 majority in the U.S. Senate also complicates the fundraising math should the embattled attorney general win the nomination. It could also complicate a Trump endorsement, says Mr. Polland.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 anticipate Trump endorsing Paxton,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭rump wants to win [the Senate] in November. ... If Paxton is the nominee, it鈥檚 going to require spending significant resources [in Texas] that would be better spent in other races.鈥�
The Paxton campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
The blue half
Indeed, the prospect of a Paxton nomination has given Democrats hope that the Senate seat could be winnable.
Democrats 鈥渄esperately want to run against Ken Paxton,鈥� says Matt Mackowiak, a GOP consultant and a senior adviser for the Cornyn campaign.
鈥淗e would be the top of the ticket,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd we don鈥檛 have to look back far to see the effects of having a weak top-of-ballot candidate.鈥�
In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz ran for reelection and beat Democratic Rep. Beto O鈥橰ourke by just 2.6 points 鈥� the closest Senate race in the state since 1978. Senator Cruz鈥檚 in the state, combined with Mr. Trump鈥檚 unpopularity聽, helped fuel a strong showing from Democratic voters. The party is hoping for a similar formula next November.
Yet, Democrats have a biennial problem they will still need to overcome: Do they win by convincing Republican voters to split their ticket and vote for a Democrat 鈥� likely only feasible by nominating a more moderate candidate? Or do they win by getting as many Democrats and non-voters to the polls as possible through fiery rhetoric?
Mr. Talarico appears to have chosen the former.
His profile grew first as a face of the Democratic resistance to the GOP鈥檚 redistricting push, an effort that聽 of former President Barack Obama. In July, he made a head-turning appearance on Joe Rogan鈥檚 podcast, earning Mr. Rogan鈥檚 recommendation that he run for president. An orthodox campaign 鈥渋s [not] going to cut it in Texas,鈥� Mr. Talarico during a September interview. He would like to do a town hall with a Republican Party group 鈥渟o we can have a real dialogue,鈥� he added.
Ms. Crockett appears to have chosen the latter.
Having earned nationwide recognition for viral clashes with Republican colleagues in Congress, she聽 at a campaign launch event that Mr. Trump 鈥渂etter get to work because I鈥檓 coming for you.鈥�
Republicans have since聽 that they nudged Ms. Crockett toward running because they believe she would be too polarizing in a general election to win. While recent polls show her leading Mr. Talarico, they also show her with聽聽than every candidate other than Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn among Texas voters.
In truth, both Democrats would be polarizing in November, experts say.
鈥淏oth candidates are progressive,鈥� says Professor Rottinghaus.
Mr. Talarico 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 demonize Republicans as frequently or vociferously as Jasmine Crockett,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 going to make him look moderate. But it鈥檚 moderation in tactics and tone, not moderation in policy.鈥�
On sex and gender issues, for example, Mr. Talarico聽 that 鈥淕od is non-binary.鈥� In another speech, he noted that 鈥渢here are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.鈥�
Neither the Crockett nor the Talarico campaigns responded to requests for comment.
鈥淓ven more polarized鈥�
At bottom, the midterm elections next year will feature one of the most high-stakes and competitive elections in Texas for decades. Both parties will hold tough primaries featuring politically vulnerable candidates 鈥� primaries that could well lead to run-off elections in May.
Texas voters will be asked again and again who they want to represent them, and they will have to answer age-old political questions around experience or novelty, compromise or ideological purity. The nation will be watching.
While statewide elections in Texas have developed a familiar rhythm in the years of Republican dominance, because of 鈥渢he size of the office, and the stakes for Texas and the nation,鈥� says Professor Rottinghaus, the contest next year is going to be entirely new.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a movie we鈥檝e seen before, but it鈥檚 one that is now approaching blockbuster status,鈥� he adds.
