As inflation weighs on voters, Trump is paying a high price, too
| Washington
It is a political challenge as tough as any in the modern era: inflation.
This week, President Donald Trump may have made the issue even more challenging for himself and his Republican Party as they gear up for next fall鈥檚 midterm congressional elections.
Almost 11 months into his second term, President Trump began the week by giving the economy a superlative grade:
Why We Wrote This
With his approval rating for economic leadership dropping in polls, President Trump has tried to downplay voters鈥� concerns about affordability. The same problem that tripped up Joe Biden is now dogging Mr. Trump.
Then, in a speech Tuesday in rural Pennsylvania billed as the launch of an 鈥渁ffordability tour鈥� aimed at reassuring voters about the economy, Mr. Trump mocked the idea of affordability.
Moments later, he reversed himself.
鈥淚 can鈥檛 say affordability is a hoax,鈥� the president told a packed ballroom at a casino resort in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania.
In real time, Mr. Trump is playing out the classic conundrum of a newly elected president seeking to forestall the fate of many a predecessor: a midterm election drubbing that severely limits his ability to pass his agenda through Congress.
For now, the president is trying to convince voters that their economic situation isn鈥檛 that bad, even if they鈥檙e struggling to make ends meet. Despite optimism rooted in lower interest rates and a strong stock market, inflation remains hard to tame. It continues to run relatively hot at 3% as of September, according to the available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That鈥檚 well above the Federal Reserve鈥檚 target rate of 2%.
The challenge for President Trump is to acknowledge reality while helping voters to still feel hopeful.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative-leaning American Action Forum think tank, says Mr. Trump needs to give voice to the reality that voters are living.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not effective to tell people they鈥檙e wrong about what they鈥檙e paying for things,鈥� says Mr. Holtz-Eakin.
Falling poll numbers on economic leadership
The latest public opinion polls put Mr. Trump鈥檚 challenge in sharp relief. The released Dec. 11 puts the president鈥檚 approval rating on economic leadership at just 31%, down from 40% in March. The December figure is his lowest economic approval rating in that poll for either his first or second term. The similarly shows the president underwater on the economy.
Mr. Trump鈥檚 overall job approval rating is now 36%, according to AP-NORC, down from 42% in March. Among Republicans, he鈥檚 still relatively strong at 69%.
But the overall numbers reflect the president鈥檚 challenge as voters square their personal circumstances with their voting preferences.
鈥淔undamentally, I think the problem is that voters are still [ticked] off at the fact that the prices are 25% to 30% higher than they were five years ago,鈥� says Ryan Bourne, an economist at the libertarian Cato Institute. 鈥淭rump is frustrated with this, because there鈥檚 not a great deal that he can do to get them down dramatically across the board.鈥�
Mr. Bourne adds that for most of this year, wages have been growing faster than prices, but 鈥渄espite that, people are still annoyed.鈥�
Another major factor that could play into voters鈥� calculations is health care. On Thursday, the Senate rejected proposals from both Republicans and Democrats to address health care subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year with the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.聽With Congress set to recess for the holidays, this effectively ensures more than 20 million Americans who get their health care through the Obamacare exchanges will see their premiums rise substantially on Jan. 1.
Managing expectations
For Mr. Trump, his administration, and the Republican Party, the challenge will be to manage expectations. At his Pennsylvania rally this week, the president delivered a 90-minute speech that was classic Trump: part prepared remarks, part greatest hits from his campaigns, part seeming stream of consciousness.
Whether that鈥檚 effective messaging is an open question. he鈥檚 back doing rallies in the U.S., after a first year back in office dominated by foreign travels and diplomatic ventures. But presidential favorability ratings pivot heavily around the economy, fairly or not, and Mr. Trump is now trying to convince voters he鈥檚 on the case.
After his contradictory messaging at the Pennsylvania rally, it wasn鈥檛 clear how the president鈥檚 鈥渁ffordability tour鈥� would proceed.
On Friday, the White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will visit Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Dec. 16 to 鈥渄eliver remarks celebrating President Trump鈥檚 economic success and the administration鈥檚 commitment to lower prices and bigger paychecks.鈥�
The key is to make sure Trump supporters are motivated to turn out in the midterms next November, when Republicans are in serious danger of losing the House. Retaking the Senate, while a longer reach for Democrats, isn鈥檛 completely out of the question.
In addition, Mr. Trump鈥檚 second-term focus on glamming up the White House 鈥� building a large ballroom, gilding the Oval Office, transforming the Rose Garden into a garden caf茅 鈥� and may not be helping his image with the swing voters he will need to win over.
Managing the message
The overarching message to voters needs to be realistic, says Mr. Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office.
鈥淚f I were on the economic team in this White House, I would not be talking about prices at all or inflation at all,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 would be talking about the overall policies, taken as a whole, being there to guarantee that Americans have got good jobs with rising wages so they can afford the things that they value.鈥�
Mr. Bourne, the Cato economist, sees opportunities for Democrats to take advantage of Mr. Trump鈥檚 mixed messaging on affordability 鈥� which, in Pennsylvania, included a repeat of that 鈥測ou don鈥檛 need 37 dolls for your daughter. Two or three is nice.鈥�
Democrats can use the fact that 鈥減eople are frustrated that Trump isn鈥檛 able to get the price level back down to where it was in 2019,鈥� Mr. Bourne says.
鈥淔or certain people who are directly affected by the president鈥檚 tariffs, whether that鈥檚 households or businesses, it can feel like in some areas, Trump has made the situation worse, needlessly.鈥�
