Urged to attack Harris on policy, Trump keeps reverting to his old shtick
It鈥檚 been less than a month since former President Donald Trump walked into the Republican National Convention to thunderous applause, having survived an assassination attempt and holding a commanding lead against an opponent many viewed as enfeebled. But it may as well have been a lifetime ago.听
Since Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket, she鈥檚 seen a groundswell of grassroots enthusiasm, record donations, and a surge in the polls. And Mr. Trump seems to have been thrown back on his heels, unsure how to recalibrate against a fresh, younger opponent, with fewer than 100 days until the election.
His initial responses to the sudden momentum shift 鈥� from questioning Ms. Harris鈥� racial identity, to disparaging Georgia鈥檚 popular Republican governor, to holding long, meandering press conferences 鈥� have only reinforced the race鈥檚 new dynamic.听
Why We Wrote This
With momentum on Vice President Kamala Harris鈥� side 鈥� and time running short 鈥� Republicans are advising former President Donald Trump to focus more on policy, less on personal attacks.
Elections are about contrasts, and right now at least, the new matchup has created a less flattering contrast for Mr. Trump. Suddenly, he鈥檚 the 鈥渙ld鈥� candidate, with an act that seems stale after nearly a decade on the national political scene. Many Republicans outside the campaign, from to , have been encouraging Mr. Trump to refocus his message on policy, tying Ms. Harris to the Biden record and casting her as more liberal than mainstream America.听
Thus far, however, Mr. Trump has been falling back on his tried-and-true method of making the campaign more about personality and trying to dominate news cycles 鈥� a strategy that has only once resulted in victory, in 2016, when he lost the popular vote but eked out an Electoral College win.听He鈥檚 even bringing back some veterans from his previous campaigns, such as former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.
鈥淗e is no longer the new thing, so he needs to find a way to demonstrate how he would create a better future for Americans,鈥� says Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and a former communications director in Mr. Trump鈥檚 State Department. 鈥淚f policy matters, of course it is not just possible but probable that he wins this race. But only he can do it.鈥�
Messages in a Thursday press conference
At a press conference at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, on Thursday, Mr. Trump began by reading several economic talking points. 鈥淕rocery prices have skyrocketed,鈥� he said, in front of tables filled with coffee cans, breakfast cereal, and sausage, adding that the price of gas had reached 鈥渁n absolutely beautiful number鈥� under his own administration. But the former president soon pivoted, speaking at length about how wind turbines kill birds and praising the strength of controversial Hungarian leader Viktor Orb谩n.
When Mr. Trump took reporters鈥� questions after speaking for roughly 45 minutes, he was asked if he planned to heed Republicans鈥� warnings and focus on a disciplined message rather than on personal attacks.
鈥淚 think I鈥檓 entitled to personal attacks,鈥� said Mr. Trump. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 have a lot of respect for her intelligence, and I think she鈥檒l be a terrible president.鈥�
Why Trump鈥檚 polling edge has eroded
Forces outside of Mr. Trump鈥檚 control, of course, have contributed to his changing fortunes. There has been increased scrutiny of his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, for past controversial comments, including one that referred to Democratic women as 鈥渃hildless cat ladies.鈥� And last weekend, it was revealed that Mr. Trump鈥檚 campaign had been hacked, with confidential documents sent to several news organizations 鈥� an act that Mr. Trump has attributed to the Iranian government, .听
But Mr. Trump鈥檚 own behavior hasn鈥檛 helped.
鈥淪aying 鈥楾his is unfair鈥� and calling [the change in the Democratic ticket] a coup, these aren鈥檛 things that voters care about,鈥� says Matt Wylie, a Republican strategist based in South Carolina. 鈥淗e just seems to be talking about the wrong things ... things that are only going to alienate suburban women, Black, and Hispanic voters.鈥�
To make matters worse, the former president now seems to be squandering an advantage he鈥檇 held in the critical battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin 鈥� states that Mr. Trump had won in 2016 but then lost in 2020. As President Biden鈥檚 poll numbers sank, Mr. Trump had opened up a clear lead in what had been Democrats鈥� 鈥渂lue wall,鈥� notes Mr. Wylie. 鈥淚t was up to Harris to rebuild that wall, but Trump now has helped Harris.鈥澛�
A New York Times/Siena College poll from last week found Ms. Harris leading in all three must-win states among likely voters. It鈥檚 a significant swing from polling in late July before Mr. Biden exited the race, when Mr. Trump led Pennsylvania and Michigan by 5 , and Wisconsin by 4 . Similarly, a new Franklin and Marshall poll found Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 3 points in Pennsylvania.
Election may be close in the end
Still, many election experts believe that despite Mr. Trump鈥檚 recent struggles, the Harris honeymoon will end at some point 鈥� and the election is likely to be very close.
Dan Naylor, chair of the Lackawanna County GOP in northeast Pennsylvania, a region that could determine who wins the state, says he believes Republican voters are going to be even more motivated to turn out now that their candidate could be the underdog. Mr. Trump announced plans to hold a rally in nearby Wilkes-Barre on Saturday.听
鈥淭he former president needs to stick to the issues and stay away from the personal attacks,鈥� says Mr. Naylor. 鈥淗e needs to stay the course.鈥澛�
Mr. Trump remains ahead in , and Ms. Harris鈥� recent polling leads in and are . Notably, although Mr. Trump鈥檚 favorability ratings remain underwater in the recent Franklin and Marshall poll, says Berwood Yost, director of the college鈥檚 Center for Opinion Research, they have actually improved by a few points since the last survey.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not so much that Trump鈥檚 numbers have sagged; it鈥檚 that the Democratic base has reenergized itself,鈥� says Mr. Yost. 鈥淣ow there is no [partisan] difference in enthusiasm like there was before. ... The factions within the Democratic Party have rallied back to Harris.鈥澛�
Will the momentum advantage for Harris last?
And while that rallying has resulted in a lot of free media coverage over the past few weeks 鈥� the same type that helped drive Mr. Trump鈥檚 first campaign 鈥� that may not last.听
Ms. Harris has gotten 鈥渁 cushy ride鈥� from the press, says Terry Sullivan, a GOP strategist who managed Sen. Marco Rubio鈥檚 2016 presidential campaign. 鈥淪he has been built up and has not had to talk about a single policy issue. She hasn鈥檛 had to lay out how she鈥檚 different from Biden. ... [But] the good news about that is that what the media gives, the media takes away.鈥澛犅�
Republicans have been hammering on the fact that Ms. Harris has yet to put forward a substantial policy vision or hold a press conference or interview since she became the nominee.
The Harris honeymoon will likely continue through next week, as Democrats gather in Chicago for their convention. Once it ends, Republicans will need to work quickly to try to turn things around, or else the momentum could 鈥渃arry Ms. Harris to the White House,鈥� says Mr. Wylie, despite her running a campaign 鈥渂ased on nothing.鈥�
Unlike in 2016, he says, Mr. Trump can鈥檛 rely on taunting nicknames to damage his opponent.听
鈥淭rump can change this,鈥� says Mr. Wylie. 鈥淏ut聽it has to be about the why.鈥�
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