Every convention promises victory. This year, Republicans feel it.
| Milwaukee
Along with the red sequins and cowboy hats, something just as ubiquitous is on display at this year鈥檚 Republican National Convention: confidence.
For the first time in decades, Republicans are in the unfamiliar position of holding a clear lead as they head into the fall general election campaign. There鈥檚 a sense of jubilation in the air, bordering on giddiness. Some are even daring to invoke the 鈥淟鈥� word 鈥� as in 鈥渓andslide.鈥澛�
The GOP hasn鈥檛 won the U.S. popular vote in two decades. Its last winning presidential candidate 鈥� former President Donald Trump 鈥� eked out a 2016 Electoral College victory that surprised even his own team, since he鈥檇 trailed in the polls all year. In 2020, President Joe Biden held from Super Tuesday to Election Day. In fact, it鈥檚 been 20 years since Republicans have gone into their nominating convention ahead in the polls.
Why We Wrote This
After a year in which former President Donald Trump faced prolonged legal battles, and GOP divisions wreaked havoc in Congress, Republicans are reveling in a remarkable sense of unity.
As recently as 2022, many strategists were writing Mr. Trump鈥檚 political obituary, blaming him for the party鈥檚 underperformance in the midterm elections and fretting about his criminal indictments and spiraling legal woes.
But now, not only is Mr. Trump ahead in nearly all national polling, but he also holds clear . His legal situation 鈥� despite a conviction in the New York hush money case 鈥撀爃as taken a markedly favorable turn, with bigger cases delayed or dismissed. And following Mr. Biden鈥檚 dismal June debate performance, which led to frantic calls from many Democrats for a new candidate to nominate, and then Saturday鈥檚 failed assassination attempt on Mr. Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, GOP strategists are eyeing an even bigger map. At a breakfast Tuesday morning, the blue states of Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico are also now in play.
Some Republicans can hardly get their heads around it all.聽
鈥淚t feels very different,鈥� GOP Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina tells the Monitor. 鈥淚鈥檝e been to each of the last five conventions, and this is the first one where you really see a pep in everybody鈥檚 step.鈥�
Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Mr. Trump who has worked for the former president since 2016, says he鈥檚 felt confident in all of Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidential campaigns. Still, he acknowledges there鈥檚 something different this time around.
鈥淵ou obviously have the standing in the polls. You have a united party for Republicans. You have a divided Democratic Party in pure chaos on their side. And also, you have the historical significance that we鈥檙e less than 96 hours removed from an assassination attempt,鈥� says Mr. Miller. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really something.鈥澛�
Of course, the electricity of potential is always in the air at conventions, no matter what the polls say. Every four years, thousands of delegates, party operatives, and elected officials descend on one city for a weeklong pump-up session.聽
鈥淚n all conventions, you鈥檙e gonna feel like there鈥檚 always hope,鈥� Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota tells the Monitor.
But this time, it feels more real.聽
鈥淲ith everything that鈥檚 going on both here at home and around the world, I think people are really looking for change,鈥� Senator Thune says, adding that he can鈥檛 recall this degree of confidence at a convention since 2004. The vibes have been so good, he adds, that his main worry now is complacency. 鈥淲e got to keep our heads down and do the work between now and Election Day. ... It seems like there鈥檚 a bit of a tail wind building, but we can鈥檛 let up.鈥�
On the financial side, too, Republicans seem to be riding high. After trailing Democrats in fundraising for much of the cycle, the Trump campaign outraised Mr. Biden in this year鈥檚 second quarter by . This week, tech leaders donated millions to , and billionaire Elon Musk has reportedly committed to donating .
The convention opened Monday with a stunningly positive development for the former president 鈥撀爊ews that a Florida judge had dismissed the federal case against him for mishandling classified documents. Although the Justice Department鈥檚 special counsel Jack Smith has appealed, it鈥檚 now all but assured that Mr. Trump won鈥檛 see another courtroom before Election Day.
At the heart of Republicans鈥� good mood is a rare sense of party unity 鈥� something the GOP hasn鈥檛 exhibited to this extent since the Bush presidency. After pointedly telling GOP delegates to 鈥渧ote your conscience鈥� in 2016, for example, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas opened his remarks Tuesday night with 鈥淕od bless Donald Trump.鈥� And Mr. Trump鈥檚 main primary opponents this cycle, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, offered their own resoundingly supportive speeches. Ms. Haley, who had thus far declined to officially endorse Mr. Trump, did so Tuesday evening.聽
鈥淭he Democrats couldn鈥檛 stop him. The media couldn鈥檛 stop him. The liberal judges couldn鈥檛 stop him,鈥澛爏aid Sen. Rick Scott of Florida in his floor speech Tuesday evening. 鈥淎 bullet from a madman couldn鈥檛 stop him. Can anything stop Donald Trump from becoming the next president and making America great again?鈥澛�
Leaning into this moment, Mr. Trump has entered the arena each evening to a standing ovation from the crowd. Wearing a bandage on his right ear where the bullet grazed his head, he appeared visibly emotional, his eyes seemingly welling with tears Monday evening at his first post-shooting appearance.聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 a Trump we鈥檝e never seen before,鈥� says Linda Mowrey, who is attending the convention with her husband, Mark Mowrey, a delegate from Kansas. Between the two of them, they have been delegates or alternate delegates for the last four conventions.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 renewed enthusiasm this year,鈥� she says. In the wake of the terrible shooting last Saturday, she notes, the whole party seemed to rapidly come together, making the energy in Milwaukee 鈥渁 whole new thing.鈥�
鈥淭he candidate on the other side seems to be really, really weak this time,鈥� adds Mr. Mowrey. 鈥淥bviously Hillary Clinton had some issues with Republicans, but she was in good standing with Democrats. She seemed like a pretty formidable opponent. ... But this time, for all the world, it doesn鈥檛 seem like Joe Biden has the capability of being the president of the United States.鈥澛�
Back in Washington, the drumbeat of frustration among Democrats has continued to build. On Wednesday, California Rep. Adam Schiff, who will likely be the state鈥檚 next senator in November, called on Mr. Biden to drop out of the race. And a new Associated Press poll found that want Mr. Biden to withdraw.聽
With Mr. Biden鈥檚 stumbles and Mr. Trump鈥檚 ascendance, Republicans are feeling optimistic about more than just the White House. Many are anticipating a full sweep in November.聽
Mr. Tillis of North Carolina says he鈥檚 always felt that his party was in 鈥済reat shape鈥� to take back the Senate, where Democrats currently have a one-seat majority but are facing a difficult map this cycle. But after this convention, Mr. Tillis says he鈥檚 鈥渇eeling more optimistic about [holding on to] the House,鈥� as well.
The convention will culminate with a highly anticipated speech from Mr. Trump.聽During an area walk-through to prepare him for his closing remarks the following evening, he stood behind the podium Wednesday afternoon, flanked by advisers. As he looked out onto the arena鈥檚 empty red carpet, with thousands of red, white, and blue balloons suspended on catwalks above, staffers pointed to the teleprompters where he will soon read his speech.聽
As a placeholder, the first sentence of Republican President Abraham Lincoln鈥檚 Gettysburg Address glared back at the president in large white text.聽Mr. Trump has said he rewrote his convention speech following this past weekend鈥檚 shooting, although it鈥檚 still unclear what he plans to say. Mr. Miller declined to elaborate on the speech beyond saying the new version is 鈥渞eally powerful,鈥� and that after the assassination attempt, which would 鈥渃hange anyone鈥檚 life,鈥� he recognizes that 鈥渨e need to come together in a time like this.鈥�
While Mr. Trump鈥檚 speech may be a mystery,聽Americans have聽long memorized Lincoln鈥檚 famous speech 鈥� the second line of which lies hidden in the teleprompter feed: 鈥淣ow we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.鈥�
Staff writer Cameron Joseph contributed reporting from Milwaukee.
