Could Nikki Haley be Trump鈥檚 running mate? Don鈥檛 rule it out.
Who will be Donald Trump鈥檚 running mate? With just a few months to go before the Republican National Convention, the search is intensifying, with the presumptive GOP nominee聽reportedly discussing possible contenders with friends, insiders, and even guests at Mar-a-Lago, while his campaign is quietly compiling dossiers and . 聽
Kristi Noem, the Trump-aligned governor of South Dakota who was once seen as a strong prospect, effectively quashed her chances of joining the GOP ticket after revealing that she deliberately聽 because she believed the dog was 鈥渦ntrainable.鈥� The backlash has been bipartisan and intense.
聽has suggested that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio 鈥� a former rival once dubbed 鈥淟ittle Marco鈥� by Mr. Trump 鈥� is under serious consideration, in part because of his Hispanic heritage. Speculation has also centered on Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, author of a bestselling memoir on his Appalachian upbringing, while other names in the mix include South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
Why We Wrote This
Nikki Haley鈥檚 strong showing in Pennsylvania鈥檚 recent Republican primary may give Donald Trump something to think about, even if vice presidential picks don鈥檛 typically move the needle in elections.
After last week鈥檚 primary in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground in November, one intriguing name has reemerged: Nikki Haley. The former governor of South Carolina, who dropped out of the presidential race in March, won a notable 16.5% of Republican votes in Pennsylvania鈥檚 closed primary.
One was Rich Kain of Sewickley, a suburb of Pittsburgh. A lifelong Republican, he voted for Ms. Haley last week and, though he says it pains him, plans to vote for President Joe Biden in November.
鈥淭rump is a demagogue,鈥� says Mr. Kain, who owns a public relations firm.
But if Ms. Haley were on the ticket? 鈥淚鈥檇 have to strongly consider鈥� voting for Mr. Trump, Mr. Kain says. He adds that given the advanced ages of both the former and current presidents, their running mates have taken on added importance this cycle.
With Pennsylvania one of just a handful of states that could decide the election, voters like Mr. Kain could offer Mr. Trump a strong reason to tap Ms. Haley as his running mate.聽
Whether he would be willing to do so 鈥� and whether she鈥檇 accept 鈥� is another matter. Ms. Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations under President Trump before later running against him, stayed in the 2024 presidential race longer than any other major primary challenger, as the race grew increasingly heated. Mr. Trump nicknamed her 鈥淏irdbrain鈥�; Ms. Haley overtly questioned his mental competence and still has not endorsed him.
Still, one GOP strategist who recently visited Mr. Trump鈥檚 Florida estate says Ms. Haley鈥檚 name 鈥渉as been discussed.鈥� While Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� base 鈥渄espises her,鈥� this strategist says, they wouldn鈥檛 abandon the former president over it.
And Mr. Trump himself is known for being transactional, with a history of patching things up with onetime adversaries. See the recent聽,聽another primary challenger whom he had mocked mercilessly. The two are now reportedly discussing joint fundraising appearances.
Ultimately, history shows it鈥檚 the top of the ticket that matters, with running mates typically making little to no difference in terms of votes. That may be especially true in the case of a polarizing, spotlight-grabbing figure like Mr. Trump, experts say.
鈥淭rump overshadows everything 鈥� whether he puts a mini-me in there or moves to the middle or tries to balance by race or gender,鈥� says presidential historian David Pietrusza.
Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook also dismisses the idea that Mr. Trump鈥檚 running mate will matter much in November. And he warns against reading too much into a primary that took place after the nomination was already effectively decided.
But Mr. Cook acknowledges that Mr. Trump鈥檚 choice of Mike Pence as running mate in 2016 helped 鈥渟mooth ruffled feathers鈥� with the GOP鈥檚 evangelical base, particularly when Mr. Pence stuck with the reality TV star after the just before the election.
Six months before the 2024 vote, it鈥檚 impossible to predict what will matter most.聽For Mr. Trump, the safest bet might be to try to reach a broader pool of voters with his vice presidential choice 鈥� someone who could potentially appeal to suburban women, or men who want a more moderate tone, or both. In a year in which abortion has become a thorny political issue for Republicans, Ms. Haley has shown she can thread the needle with 鈥渃ommon sense鈥� rhetoric that doesn鈥檛 alienate the middle.
The bigger question for Ms. Haley might be whether she is willing to do what it takes to get the job. Vice President Pence was a loyal foot soldier to Mr. Trump until Jan. 6, 2021, when a pro-Trump mob invaded the U.S. Capitol to try to prevent him from presiding over the ceremony counting electoral votes for Mr. Biden. Mr. Pence went ahead with his official duties 鈥� a decision that constitutional experts applauded but that drew the ire of much of the GOP base.
Now Mr. Pence is a punchline. At the White House Correspondents鈥� Association dinner last Saturday, Mr. Biden joked that at least 鈥渕y vice president actually endorses me.鈥�
If Ms. Haley wants to run for president again in 2028, she may prefer to sit out the rest of 2024, calculating that attaching herself to the controversial Trump brand could be a negative.
鈥淭his vote in Pennsylvania wasn鈥檛 necessarily pro-Haley,鈥� Mr. Cook says. 鈥淚t was anti-Trump.鈥澛�
