Could MAGA candidates in key swing states drag down Trump?
President Joe Biden may have some useful foils in November besides his presumptive opponent, former President Donald Trump: down-ballot 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� Republicans.聽
With the top of the ticket featuring a rematch between two highly familiar and unpopular candidates, voter enthusiasm for the presidential race may lag. And operatives on both the left and right say that a handful of controversial, Trump-endorsed nominees in key swing states could wind up costing the GOP some winnable Senate seats and governorships 鈥� and potentially even undercut Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidential bid.
Call it a coattails effect but in reverse 鈥� and with a negative impact.
Why We Wrote This
In Arizona and North Carolina, MAGA Republicans are stirring up controversy and running behind their Democratic opponents, even as former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden.
鈥淔or lack of a better term, it鈥檚 a negative trickle-up,鈥� says Matt Grotsky, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party.
In Arizona, a critical battleground state, polls show Mr. Trump currently leads Mr. Biden by 3 to 6 percentage points. But GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake is running behind her Democratic opponent there by . The divisive former news anchor lost her 2022 gubernatorial bid after promoting Mr. Trump鈥檚 claims of election fraud and calling the late Arizona Sen. John McCain a 鈥渓oser.鈥� She then refused to concede, filing a lawsuit that was later dismissed.
Likewise in North Carolina, where Mr. Trump had his narrowest win in 2020, shows the former president leading Mr. Biden by just 2 points, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson trails his Democratic opponent by 8. Mr. Robinson, the state鈥檚 lieutenant governor, has made headlines for calling homosexuality 鈥�,鈥� suggesting abortion be , and calling the Parkland school shooting survivors 鈥�.鈥�
Some Republican-leaning voters in these states may choose to split their tickets 鈥� casting ballots for both Mr. Trump and a Democrat 鈥� or just leave the down-ballot selection blank. Others may decide to stay home, or even change their minds about supporting Mr. Trump.
鈥淢ark Robinson is a greater threat to Donald Trump than any legal challenges he faces,鈥� says Paul Shumaker, a North Carolina Republican strategist who worked for one of Mr. Robinson鈥檚 primary opponents. Mr. Shumaker says the gubernatorial nominee鈥檚 inflammatory comments could sink the state for Mr. Trump.聽鈥淲hen you have a weak candidate down ballot and a strong up top, how do you weaken that candidate? By tying him. ... That鈥檚 Politics 101.鈥澛�
Many Republican candidates have leaned into Mr. Trump鈥檚 MAGA brand since he won the presidency in 2016, but fewer have been able to ride it to victory. As Mr. Grotsky puts it, the past two election cycles have proved that Mr. Trump is in many ways a singular figure, and that voters often reject candidates who try to mimic his populist style at the state level.
A midterm setback聽
The GOP learned this firsthand during the 2022 congressional midterm elections. Democrats performed better than expected, retaking the Senate after several Trump-endorsed nominees floundered with moderate voters. Now Democrats are hoping 鈥� and some Republicans are worrying 鈥� that this fall could be a repeat of two years ago, but this time with the White House on the line as well.
This week, reporting emerged that Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL whom Mr. Trump called an 鈥淎merican hero,鈥� has told conflicting stories about a gunshot wound he said he got . In Ohio, auto dealer and MAGA firebrand Bernie Moreno handily won the primary over a more traditional Republican whom Democrats had considered a greater threat. Dave McCormick, the GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, is facing accusations that 鈥� evoking similar carpetbagger claims that helped bring down the state鈥檚 2022 GOP Senate candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz.
The Senate map this cycle strongly favors Republicans, with Democrats defending five seats ranked as toss-ups or likely GOP pickups, and another four that could potentially be in jeopardy. Republicans, by contrast, have just two seats ranked 鈥渓ikely Republican鈥� while the rest are all deemed safe.
But a similarly GOP-friendly map in 2022 wasn鈥檛 enough to overcome a slate of controversial, MAGA-aligned candidates. Some of those Republicans were boosted in their efforts聽to win the nomination by Democratic groups, who ran ads calling them 鈥渢oo conservative鈥� or too aligned with Mr. Trump 鈥撀燼 tactic Democrats this cycle in states like Ohio.
Still, Democrats say they need to take seriously the possibility of MAGA candidates winning in November. In North Carolina, Anderson Clayton, chair of the state Democratic Party, notes that Mr. Robinson, the state鈥檚 current lieutenant governor, has already been elected statewide once.聽
鈥淭he bottom of the ballot is going to help the top of the ticket in my state like none other,鈥� says Ms. Clayton. 鈥淏ut for us to be able to have reverse coattails, we need to educate voters on who these candidates are.鈥�
Some analysts remain skeptical that down-ballot races will ultimately have much effect on the presidential contest.
鈥淭rump is such a polarizing figure to Democrats, and so is Biden to Republicans. What鈥檚 going to motivate people is the top of the ticket,鈥� says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. 鈥淧olitics is so nationalized, and driven by attitudes focused on the presidency, that there is not a lot of breathing room down ticket for candidates to differentiate themselves.鈥澛�
How many split-ticket voters?
In recent years, the number of split-ticket voters 鈥� those backing candidates from different parties at the same time 鈥� , as polarization has increased. The 2020 election had the since Pew Research Center started tracking the data in the early 1970s.聽
But that鈥檚 not to say it doesn鈥檛 exist.
Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, both up for reelection this year, have won reelection in states that have become reliably Republican in presidential elections. Popular Republican governors won in New Hampshire and Vermont in 2016 and 2020, even as Hillary Clinton and Mr. Biden carried those states. This year, popular former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, is currently leading in his race for Maryland Senate even as the state is expected to be a sure win for Mr. Biden.聽
North Carolina specifically has a strong history in ticket-splitting. In the past two presidential election cycles, both Mr. Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won the state. The current Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Josh Stein, was reelected as the state鈥檚 attorney general in 2020 鈥� the same year Mr. Robinson was first elected lieutenant governor.
But some observers suggest that the slice of GOP voters who tell pollsters they support Mr. Trump but are put off by Mr. Robinson鈥檚 controversial stances could wind up turning its back on the former president as well.聽
鈥淢ost of us who watch the state are looking to see what will be the influence of the governor鈥檚 race to drive the presidential race,鈥� says Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at North Carolina鈥檚 Catawba College. In Mr. Trump and Mr. Robinson, 鈥渨e鈥檙e seeing two Republican candidates at the top of the ticket who are very much aligned with each other,鈥� he adds. 鈥淐an they push the envelope to where that small middle ground in North Carolina goes, 鈥楾hat鈥檚 just too much for me鈥�?鈥�
