In Arizona and beyond, an abortion uproar has Republicans scrambling
| Washington
When Donald Trump stated early this week that abortion policy should be left to the states 鈥� addressing a long-standing question about his stance 鈥� the once and possibly future president may have thought the issue was behind him.
But it wasn鈥檛 to be.聽
The very next day, the Arizona Supreme Court dropped a bombshell, reviving an 1864 state law banning all abortions, except to save the life of the mother. On Wednesday, the closely divided Arizona House erupted in聽聽when Republicans defeated an effort to overturn the ban.聽
Why We Wrote This
Leaving abortion access to states means stakes are growing for the 2024 election 鈥� and roiling Republicans over how to respond.
Now, the issue is poised to go before Arizona voters in a referendum on the November ballot 鈥� likely driving up turnout in a key battleground state. Florida voters, too, will have a say on abortion, after the state鈥檚 highest court ruled last week that a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights until fetal viability can appear on the ballot.聽聽have also put abortion on the ballot or are working on it.聽
Since June 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade 鈥� the landmark ruling that guaranteed a nationwide right to abortion 鈥� the issue has galvanized women and driven up election turnout.聽
Now, in a presidential election year, the stakes are higher. And abortion has become a defining issue.聽
鈥淒emocratic women, independent women, and pro-choice voters have been mobilized by the decision to overturn Roe,鈥� says Jennifer Lawless, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. 鈥淪o every time there鈥檚 an additional ingredient that gets thrown into that bowl 鈥� whether it鈥檚 IVF or, now, a law from 1864 鈥� it鈥檚 just more ammunition for the Democrats.鈥�
States in flux
In vitro fertilization, or IVF, made headlines in February, when the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that embryos created via this technique should be considered children. The state Legislature quickly passed a law protecting IVF providers from liability regarding the embryos they store, but the case still attracted national attention. One IVF provider, in Mobile, Alabama, it was shutting down over 鈥渓itigation concerns.鈥�
Another case, this one out of Texas and recently argued before the U.S. Supreme Court, is challenging the legality of a widely used abortion drug called mifepristone. Part of the argument leans on an 1873 law known as the Comstock Act to support a ban on mailing abortion pills. Many women living in states banning surgical abortion rely on medication to end an unwanted pregnancy.聽
When Roe was overturned almost two years ago, then-President Trump earned high praise from abortion opponents. By appointing three anti-abortion justices to the Supreme Court, teeing up a majority to overturn Roe, he helped fulfill abortion foes鈥� long-held dream.聽
A reversal by Trump
Now that Roe is gone, religious conservatives and other abortion foes who are a crucial part of Mr. Trump鈥檚 base want more: nationwide limits on abortion access. In a videotaped statement Monday, the former president and presumptive 2024 GOP nominee declined to go there, to the dismay of anti-abortion activists.聽
鈥淲e are deeply disappointed in President Trump鈥檚 position,鈥� said Marjorie Danenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, in a press release.聽
On Wednesday, Mr. Trump doubled down, telling reporters in Atlanta he would not sign a national abortion ban, a reversal of both a 2016 campaign promise and statements from his time as president. He also said the new Arizona abortion ban went too far, adding 鈥渢hat will be straightened out.鈥� Mr. Trump, who used to identify as聽聽is seen by many as having adopted an anti-abortion posture for political reasons.聽
Today, despite the criticism from his base, Mr. Trump may be smart to punt the issue to the states and avoid further alienating moderate voters who might be gettable.聽
鈥淧urely politically, I think Trump made exactly the right move,鈥� says historian David Garrow, author of the book 鈥淟iberty and Sexuality.鈥� 鈥淚t takes him out of the conversation.鈥�
But the reality is that, in fulfilling his core promise to overturn Roe, Mr. Trump unleashed forces that likely boomeranged against the GOP in the 2022 midterm elections 鈥� and could come back to bite Mr. Trump and the party this November.
In 2022, a predicted 鈥渞ed wave鈥� failed to materialize, leaving a slim Democratic Senate majority in place and only a narrow GOP takeover of the House.聽In Michigan, a key presidential battleground state, Democrats won the governor鈥檚 mansion and both houses of the Legislature for the first time since 1983. A successful ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution likely helped push up turnout.
Other states 鈥� including solid Republican Kansas and Ohio 鈥� have passed referendums supporting abortion rights since the fall of Roe.聽
This November, with two unpopular candidates expected to top the major-party tickets, the dynamic is different. But聽early signs are that Democrats will benefit more than Republicans from Roe鈥檚 demise.聽
According to a聽聽released in March, 1 in 8 voters say abortion is their top voting issue, and among those voters, a majority are Democrats. Among Black women voters, 28% cited abortion as their top issue, as did 22% of Democratic women.
Abortion isn鈥檛 the only big issue
But it鈥檚 likely a stretch to say that this week鈥檚 uproar in Arizona over abortion has already delivered the state to President Joe Biden. With almost seven months聽until聽the Nov. 5 election, the economy and immigration are still the most important issues overall, polls show.
Unforeseen events could also sway votes.聽鈥淚f the [abortion] law remains on the books and the ballot proposal makes the ballot, it will help Biden,鈥� says Kim Fridkin, a political scientist at Arizona State University. 鈥淏ut to what extent? Not everyone鈥檚 a single-issue voter. It will be a very close race no matter what.鈥�
Mike Noble, a nonpartisan pollster based in Phoenix, also urges caution when looking at the Arizona electorate. Though the state has shifted toward the center in recent years, he says, the state still leans right 鈥� but with an independent streak.聽
鈥淎bortion will be a key wedge issue for Democrats here, but it won鈥檛 be the No. 1 issue,鈥� Mr. Noble says. 鈥淚nflation and immigration are definitely the top two pain points, not only for Republicans but also independents.鈥�
In Florida, abortion-rights activists are bracing for May 1, when a ban on abortion after six weeks鈥� gestation goes into effect. A state constitutional amendment on the ballot in November would enshrine abortion protections. But the bar for passage is high: 60% of the vote.聽
A concerted get-out-the-vote effort on the abortion measure could bring coattails for President Biden in a state that used to be the biggest battleground in the country, but has shifted rightward in recent cycles 鈥� though not as much as 2022 suggested.聽
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis鈥� 19-point reelection victory two years ago was not the new normal for Florida, says Susan MacManus, professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida, pointing to a weak Democratic turnout effort.聽鈥淭here鈥檚 no question 鈥� no question 鈥� that Florida鈥檚 elections will go back to the old pattern of being close,鈥� she says.聽
But whether having abortion on the ballot can help Mr. Biden is another matter.
Some voters, for example, could choose to vote for protecting abortion rights while also voting for Mr. Trump as president.
鈥淪ome people鈥檚 vote for president is more dictated by how they feel about the pressing issues that affect them daily,鈥� Dr. MacManus says. 鈥淚鈥檓 not saying [the abortion measure] won鈥檛 help Democrats. I think it will. But it鈥檚 a lifetime between now and when people start early voting.鈥�
