Can team Biden avoid a one-term presidency?
| Washington
There鈥檚 still time.聽
That鈥檚 the message from Democratic strategists to their party鈥檚 hand-wringers, following a series of polls that show former President Donald Trump beating the incumbent in a 2024 rematch.聽
On paper, President Joe Biden鈥檚 reelection prospects do look highly uncertain, if not outright daunting. Even among Democrats, a majority () say they want other candidates to enter the 2024 presidential race.聽, President Biden is in a dead heat with former President Trump, the likely Republican nominee.聽
Why We Wrote This
Joe Biden faces significant head winds in his reelection bid. Does his position suggest a one-term presidency, or are there factors at play that might assist him over the next year?
For those who believe a second Trump term is a 鈥渂reak the glass鈥� moment 鈥� an emergency for the future of American democracy 鈥� it鈥檚 time to pull out all the stops.聽
But with just under a year to go until the 2024 presidential election, most Americans haven鈥檛 fully tuned in. And therein lies hope for both Democrats and Republicans.聽
Under normal circumstances, a sitting U.S. president would have an advantage in a reelection race. History shows that聽聽who try for another term win. But these are not normal times. Mr. Biden, who marked his 81st birthday today, is the oldest American president in history 鈥� a negative to voters of both parties. The economy is still recovering from the pandemic, and the rate of inflation, while declining, remains above normal. Two wars are raging abroad, with major U.S. interests at stake and no end in sight.聽
At home, Mr. Trump is聽, critics say, as his allies reportedly plan for a second term that could blow away the conventions of democratic rule.
In many ways, it鈥檚 shaping up to be an election year like no other, but in a fundamental way, it鈥檚 utterly typical: The state of the economy, and voter perceptions of it, could well determine the outcome.聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 the single biggest challenge for the administration,鈥� says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who worked on the 2020 Biden campaign.聽
And even though the economy is improving, and has avoided (so far) a widely expected recession, many Americans aren鈥檛 feeling it: Grocery prices are at record highs, and 鈥減eople are reminded of that daily,鈥� says Ms. Lake, who conducts weekly focus groups. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 argue with people about their real, lived experience.鈥�
What鈥檚 more, she says, unlike with past inflationary periods, consumers have an unrealistic expectation that prices should go back to where they were before factors including pandemic spending by the government pushed them up.聽
The president is losing traction among Black, Hispanic, and young voters, all key constituencies. Among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, fully 70% disapprove of Mr. Biden鈥檚 handling of the Israel-Hamas war, according to a聽聽Among Democrats overall, Mr. Biden鈥檚 job approval has聽聽in the Gallup poll, a record low for his presidency, attributed to his unequivocal support for Israel in the war.聽
Polls also consistently show Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump in voter trust on immigration, national security, and foreign policy. And while the president leads his likely adversary on abortion rights and handling of democracy, those issues have less overall salience with a larger, presidential-year electorate.聽
Mr. Biden, too, faces multiple third-party challengers who, in theory, could siphon away enough votes to cost him key battleground states, a phenomenon that contributed to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton鈥檚 loss to Mr. Trump in 2016.
So, is Mr. Biden headed the way of the first President Bush and former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford 鈥� and into the nation鈥檚 second straight one-term presidency?聽
Not necessarily, historians say. It鈥檚 far too soon to draw conclusions from the early polls; many voters have yet to focus on the election. Furthermore, bad early polls can be useful in flagging weaknesses in a campaign and suggest ways to retool, as Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama聽.
In fact, Mr. Biden 鈥� who served as vice president under President Obama 鈥撀燾ould be forgiven for having d茅j脿 vu. At this point in his first term, Mr. Obama鈥檚 job approval聽ratings in Gallup polls languished in the low 40s,聽not far above where Mr. Biden鈥檚 overall public approval stands now.
That鈥檚 not to suggest Mr. Biden has the performative skills of his more charismatic former boss 鈥� or of Mr. Trump. And in that regard, says presidential scholar William Howell, the angst Democrats are feeling over polls is justified.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 Biden鈥檚 age, but more broadly, he doesn鈥檛 have a core base of enthusiasm within the party in the way Trump decidedly does,鈥� says Professor Howell, director of the Center for Effective Government at the University of Chicago.聽
And that, in turn, fuels Democratic anxiety over what some see as the biggest issue at stake in 2024: the trajectory of American democracy.
鈥淚 do believe that that very much is on the ballot,鈥� Professor Howell says. 鈥淏ut I鈥檓 not confident that that, as a campaign message, is the ticket for Biden to get reelected. Which leads to a kind of strange dissonance: The thing that matters most may be the thing that鈥檚 talked about the least.鈥澛�
For now Ms. Lake, the Democratic strategist, is focused on the nuts and bolts of why Mr. Biden is struggling in polls today and how he breaks out of that rut.聽
鈥淯ltimately, Joe Biden will get more credit for his accomplishments when there鈥檚 a contrast, and he will also unite and energize Democrats more,鈥� Ms. Lake says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 nothing more focusing than Donald Trump in his element, like when he鈥檚 calling people vermin on Veterans Day. That really bothers people, and聽really聽bothers women.鈥�
The best issue for Mr. Biden and Democrats overall, polls show, will be abortion. The 2022 Supreme Court overturning of Roe v. Wade, with three Trump appointees voting in the majority to eliminate a nationwide right to the procedure, will motivate key constituencies, including suburban women, as will no other issue.聽
Buttressed by abortion, Democrats overperformed in off-year elections earlier this month. In Ohio, a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution passed easily, echoing results in other red and purple states. Advocates in several states 鈥� including Nevada and Arizona, both battlegrounds 鈥� are trying to put abortion referendums on ballots next year.聽
But in a presidential year, turnout will be higher than in off-year elections 鈥� and if Mr. Trump is on the ballot, that will goose turnout on both sides.聽
David Pepper, former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, says Mr. Biden already has a good economic story to tell; he and his surrogates just need to tell it.聽
鈥淭hey鈥檝e got work to do, but Joe Biden actually has a decent record to run on, if they鈥檙e able to communicate it well,鈥� Mr. Pepper says. 鈥淲hat he inherited versus where we are is quite strong.鈥澛�
Just watch Ohio Republicans in statewide office talk about the Ohio economy, he says. 鈥淭hey run around every day talking about how great it is. And it鈥檚 clearly not about Ohio; it鈥檚 a national recovery.鈥澛�
Mr. Pepper also thinks 鈥淪cranton Joe鈥� 鈥� the Mr. Biden who loves to travel to small cities like his Pennsylvania hometown, and talk to voters 鈥� can be effective in building up the public鈥檚 assessment of the economy.聽
鈥淗e can show up in Mansfield, Ohio, and say, 鈥業 know what鈥檚 happening in this town. And when we talk about infrastructure, we鈥檙e not just talking about the billion-dollar bridge in Cincinnati, which gets all the attention. We鈥檙e talking about the five-figure project that could make a difference to your town that鈥檚 been struggling too long,鈥欌�� Mr. Pepper says.
But even if 鈥淚t鈥檚 the economy, stupid鈥� still reigns as the ultimate campaign mantra, other elements will factor in, says American University historian Allan Lichtman, who uses 鈥溾�� to predict U.S. presidential elections.聽
A year out, it鈥檚 too early to forecast 2024. And while it might seem that a Biden-Trump race features two incumbents, it will still be a referendum on the sitting president, Professor Lichtman says.聽
鈥淭his election will turn on governance more than anything else,鈥� he says, adding a caveat: 鈥淗istorical patterns are strong but not necessarily invincible. And we do have something quite unprecedented, not just a former president versus a current 鈥� but a former president who faces 91 felony counts, who could be convicted and sentenced to prison before the general election. Who knows how that might shake things up?鈥�
