On Russia, is US policy edging from defense to offense?
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Noah Robertson Staff writer
| Washington
The Biden administration鈥檚 goals for the war in Ukraine appear to be expanding beyond Ukraine.聽
On a surprise visit to Kyiv last week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the United States wants 鈥淩ussia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.鈥澛�
Even for an administration whose objectives in the conflict , the comment was notable. White House officials have so far focused on defending Ukraine from an aggressive neighbor. Now the U.S. seems to be saying it sees an opportunity to ensure that neighbor can鈥檛 become aggressive again.聽
Why We Wrote This
The Biden administration now seems to see an opportunity to weaken Russia 鈥� a shift that reflects lessons learned from the conflict so far. But concerns about escalation remain.
Three days after Secretary Austin鈥檚 comment, President Joe Biden asked Congress for another $33 billion in aid to Ukraine 鈥� more than twice the $13.6 billion approved in March, and two-thirds of which would go to security. The request would transfer heavy weaponry, including missile defense systems and armored vehicles, and is meant to fund Ukraine鈥檚 defense for the next five months.聽
Before February, the administration had resisted this kind of military aid, in part because it didn鈥檛 want to provoke the Kremlin. But it鈥檚 now spending billions sending Kyiv combat drones, howitzers, stinger missiles, and javelins. How did a White House so concerned with escalation just two months ago pivot to saying it wants to weaken a nuclear rival?
Part of the answer stems from the conflict itself. Russia鈥檚 military has not lived up to expectations, and Ukrainian defense has shown high returns on investment. At the same time, the U.S. seems to be taking Russia鈥檚 ambitions in the region more seriously.
鈥淭his is a significant new pillar of U.S. strategy,鈥� says Lauren Speranza, director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
鈥淲e have realized that we cannot just contain Russia,鈥� she says.
The question for President Biden and his Cabinet is how to harden its response without inciting a wider conflict. But聽Russia鈥檚 leaders are already responding with threats to do just that.
Last week, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the U.S. was waging a proxy war that could risk nuclear retaliation. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Western support for Ukraine would draw .
Those threats may be an indicator of Russia鈥檚 battlefield issues. Estimates of Russian casualties range from 15,000 to 22,000, with wounded soldiers likely numbering twice that. After an initial blitz into Ukraine鈥檚 east, Russia鈥檚 offense is now 鈥減lodding,鈥� the Pentagon says.聽
The Kremlin鈥檚 rhetoric is actually a sign that U.S. aid is working and more should follow, says Richard Hooker, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
鈥淎t the outset the administration was very concerned about the appearance of direct intervention and was reluctant to provide long-range weapons like aircraft, like long-range artillery,鈥� he says. 鈥淚n the last week or so, we鈥檝e seen what appears to be a policy shift.鈥�
In just weeks, the Air Force has assembled new types of battlefield drones and trained Ukrainians to use them. After hesitating initially, Washington is sharing live battlefield intelligence with Kyiv. In Germany and two other undisclosed sites, the Florida National Guard is teaching Ukrainians to operate American howitzers.聽
The administration鈥檚 aid request and a passed by Congress last week are visible commitments to continue that assistance over the long term.
Ukraine likely needs air power to retake territory, and the aid so far doesn鈥檛 quite meet the need, says Dr. Hooker. But it鈥檚 much closer to the need than the past two administrations reached, after the annexation of Crimea and the聽start of聽fighting in the Donbas, he says, and 鈥済iven that we鈥檙e barely two months into this, it鈥檚 been a lot.鈥�
Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, remembers working in the Senate in 2014 when then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko visited Congress. Following the annexation of Crimea, Mr. Poroshenko thanked the U.S. for its humanitarian aid but noted, wryly, that
Eight years later, America isn鈥檛 just sending blankets. The pace of aid has been 鈥渆xtraordinary,鈥� says Mr. Bowman, with arms reaching Ukrainians just days after being approved in Washington.
Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are still in Ukraine, fighting a deadly war of attrition and razing entire cities. And , given the stakes for his hold on power.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e still there,鈥� says Morgan Vi帽a, a fellow at George Mason University鈥檚 National Security Institute. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 important to note 鈥� that Russia is still persisting with this war.鈥�
Recent explosions in Transnistria, a disputed region of Moldova, may also indicate that the . Mr. Putin has refocused his efforts on eastern Ukraine, but that doesn鈥檛 mean he won鈥檛 expand it later, says Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.聽
Harsh economic and military costs mean Russia will already exit this war weaker, he says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe that explicitly calling for weakening Russia as a goal is a wise idea,鈥� says Dr. Haass, who was director of policy planning for the Department of State from 2001 to 2003. 鈥淚t reinforces Putin鈥檚 message that this is really not about Ukraine.鈥�
Ms. Vi帽a also would prefer U.S. policy to focus on a free Ukraine, with Russian weakness as a byproduct. Secretary Austin鈥檚 newly formed Ukraine Contact Group is a good example of how to achieve that, she says. The body of 40 U.S. allies has pledged to meet each month and coordinate aid to Ukraine. Germany, one of its members, has already pledged up to 50 armored vehicles.聽
Getting the balance right is difficult, though. Ukraine has a tight window to protect itself against a much larger adversary, and Russia is sure to perceive all foreign aid as provocative. Dr. Hooker, who served in the National Security Council under multiple administrations, knows how difficult weighing those goals can be. Russia鈥檚 threats need to be taken seriously, he says, but if it isn鈥檛 stopped in Ukraine, when will it be?
鈥淲e have an opportunity to end this threat for a generation, if not forever,鈥� says Dr. Hooker. 鈥淚f we don鈥檛, we鈥檙e going to find ourselves watching the same movie all over again in a few years.鈥�
