Election-year wild card: Blue state gerrymandering
| Glens Falls, N.Y.
If Democrats manage to hang on to their narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after this fall鈥檚 midterm elections, it will be because of places like Glens Falls, New York.
Dubbed 鈥渉ometown, U.S.A.鈥� by Look magazine in 1944, Glens Falls has for years been a small spot of blue in a mostly red Adirondack district. But under a new map passed last month by New York Democrats, it will become part of a newly redrawn Democratic-tilting district based in Albany, which now snakes an arm up Interstate 87 to grab the quaint town of 14,000.
Critics are calling the New York congressional map, which has been signed into law by the governor, one of the most blatant gerrymanders in the country. It could potentially take the state鈥檚 eight Republican House members down to as few as four.
Why We Wrote This
Political map-drawing is a powerful tool. While Democrats have decried Republican gerrymandering in recent years, those in some blue states say it鈥檚 unilateral disarmament if they don鈥檛 respond in kind.
On Thursday evening, a Republican state court judge in Western New York agreed. The judge tossed the map, writing that it showed clear political bias, adding: 鈥渋n a democracy it is rare if ever that one party has all the right answers.鈥�
But experts say the Democrats鈥� New York map may well be preserved on appeal, at least for the current cycle. And New York isn鈥檛 the only blue state with warped lines.听After years of decrying partisan gerrymandering and pushing for legislation to outlaw the practice, Democrats in states from Illinois to Maryland to Oregon听have passed congressional maps that attempt to shore up their own incumbents and eliminate GOP seats. Having had little say in the last redistricting cycle a decade ago, thanks to the shellacking it took in the 2010 elections, the party has taken advantage of more recent electoral gains to go on offense, aggressively redrawing district lines in certain states in its own favor.
Republicans have produced equally gerrymandered maps elsewhere, in states from Texas to Florida. At the same time, a growing number of states have turned to independent commissions or courts to produce their maps. The result is a national playing field that, on paper at least, increasingly looks听. Although a few states鈥� maps are still being debated and court challenges are ongoing, the overall House map now appears听听between Democrat- and Republican-leaning districts for the first time in decades.
New York State Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research and Reapportionment
Some analysts say Democrats had little choice but to be aggressive where they could 鈥� unless they wanted to unilaterally disarm, since Republicans have steadfastly opposed redistricting reform proposals at the federal level.
鈥淒o [Democrats] impose redistricting rules on themselves? Or do they try to do what Republicans are doing in some states?鈥� asks Seth Masket, a University of Denver political scientist.
Still, Republicans are raising cries of hypocrisy.
鈥淎nytime you accuse your opponents of doing something, and then turn around and do the exact same thing, you鈥檙e a hypocrite,鈥� says John Feehery, a Republican strategist based in Washington.
The battle for seats
At the outset of this year鈥檚 reapportionment, Republicans had appeared poised to gain as many as 10 seats nationwide from the process. But several GOP maps, such as in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, have been overthrown by courts.
Democratic maps are also facing legal challenges 鈥� which could potentially restore Republicans鈥� edge. Days before New York鈥檚 map was tossed, Maryland鈥檚 map was rejected by a state court as well.听Only one seat likely hangs in the balance for Democrats in Maryland; New York is a far bigger prize. But not everyone is convinced the Empire State鈥檚 map is doomed.
Courts in New York have historically been loath to intervene in political fights 鈥� and all the justices on the state鈥檚 highest court were appointed by Democratic governors, noted Shawn Donahue, a University of Buffalo redistricting expert, before the New York ruling came out. He鈥檚 skeptical Republicans can win the appeals that are sure to follow the ruling.听听
Many Democrats see this year鈥檚 efforts as a necessary corrective, after the last round of redistricting gave Republicans a significant structural edge. In 2012, Republican gerrymanders helped the GOP maintain control of the House by a 33-seat margin, despite receiving 1.4 million fewer votes for the House overall.
Of course, rejiggering lines can only accomplish so much. Most polls indicate Republicans will have a strong advantage heading into this fall鈥檚 midterm elections, given concerns about inflation and President Joe Biden鈥檚 weak poll numbers, which could tip swing districts as well as weaker Democratic ones to the GOP.
And some Democrats reject the idea that their party is relying on gerrymandering to try to offset the political head winds.
鈥淒emocrats are drawing maps that reflect the census and the population growth,鈥� says John Bisognano, executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which was formed after the last round of redistricting by former Attorney General Eric Holder to guide the Democrats鈥� efforts nationwide. In a statement to the Monitor, Mr. Bisognano points to states that lost congressional seats because of population declines in rural, Republican areas. New maps ought to reflect that shift, he says.
Others seem more conflicted, however. When a retiring Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper, a moderate Democrat, about the New York map, he responded, 鈥淎re you asking me to be proud of 鈥榓n eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth鈥�?鈥澨�
Of course, many feel the GOP is taking eyes and teeth of its own 鈥� including eliminating Mr. Cooper鈥檚 Democratic Nashville district, splitting it up between three rural Republican ones.听
New York鈥檚 mapmaking was originally supposed to be handled by a bipartisan commission, approved by voters in 2014. But as in several other states, the commission deadlocked, sending the process to the state Legislature, where Democrats have gained a supermajority in recent years.听
The resulting map cuts the number of congressional districts where former President Donald Trump would have won 鈥� in a state where 37% of voters overall pulled the lever for the former president. That has raised eyebrows even outside the ranks of Republicans. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project, a nonpartisan research center, gave the New York map an .
鈥淚t鈥檚 an outrageous, blatant, partisan gerrymander that is clearly contrary to our state constitution,鈥� says former GOP Rep. John Faso, who is leading a lawsuit against the map in state court. An amendment passed by New York voters in 2014 prohibits districts drawn 鈥渢o discourage competition鈥� or to favor 鈥減articular candidates or political parties.鈥澨齌he state judge relied, in part, on that amendment in striking down the map on Thursday.
A coffee shop debate
Critics argue the New York map also fails a 鈥渃ompactness鈥� test, prioritizing partisanship over geography 鈥� and ignoring the ways in which local concerns often unite communities more than national politics.
Sitting in SPoT Coffee, next to the old First National Bank building in Glens Falls, Michael Borgos 鈥� chairman of the Republican Party committee in Glens Falls 鈥撎齛rgues that grouping his small town with Albany will just make it 鈥渁 little fish in a big pond.鈥�
Current GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik鈥檚 district office is just a short walk away, he notes. To local townsfolk 鈥� whether they love or loathe her 鈥� she鈥檚 just 鈥淓lise.鈥� A Democrat representing a safe, Albany-based district, Mr. Borgos predicts, won鈥檛 give Glens Falls the same kind of attention.
Moreover, the town has been historically and culturally tied to parts north, as the gateway to the Adirondacks, he says. 鈥淪o to separate us, from a political standpoint, doesn鈥檛 make any sense.鈥澨�
鈥淚 disagree,鈥� Lynne Boecher cuts in from across the table. The chair of the Warren County Democratic Party, Ms. Boecher contends Glens Falls faces many of the same challenges that the state capital does, like poverty and housing affordability. The town, which voted for Mr. Biden by 23 points in 2020, has far more in common politically with Albany than with the heavily Republican Adirondacks, she says.
Ms. Boecher and Mr. Borgos, often at odds on issues, know each other well. Mr. Borgos is a high school friend of Ms. Boecher鈥檚 son.
While they disagree about the new map, there鈥檚 one thing they do agree on 鈥� they鈥檇 likely be able to hash out better lines than the powers that be in Albany.
鈥淢ichael and I could probably sit down and draw the 21st and the 20th听[districts],鈥� Ms. Boecher quips.
鈥淭here you go,鈥� Mr. Borgos chimes in. 鈥淐all Albany, tell them we鈥檒l figure it out.鈥�
Editor鈥檚 Note: This story was updated to reflect the ruling by a New York state court judge on Thursday evening throwing out the state鈥檚 new map.
