Trump wants 10 GOP lawmakers gone. This one may prove tricky.
| Portage, Mich.
Even Fred Upton鈥檚 former opponents like Fred Upton.
For more than three decades, Congressman Upton has represented Michigan鈥檚 6th District, the southwest corner of the state, stretching from Lake Michigan to Kalamazoo to the Indiana border. And every two years, Mr. Upton has sailed through reelection with a coalition of supporters across the political spectrum.
Dale Shugars, a Kalamazoo County Commissioner who lost a primary challenge to Mr. Upton in 2002, calls him 鈥渁 person that has integrity.鈥� He 鈥渨orks hard and represents most of the views of the area,鈥� Mr. Shugars says, adding that 鈥渉e votes, for the most part, very well for Southwest Michigan.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
The fate of GOP Rep. Fred Upton, a fixture in Michigan politics, could reveal how much control former President Donald Trump still exerts on the base of the Republican Party.
By 鈥渕ost,鈥� Mr. Shugars is referring to Mr. Upton鈥檚 January impeachment vote, which has roiled 6th District Republicans and made the congressman a target for many members of the national GOP.
After mobs of angry Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 10 Republicans joined House Democrats to impeach President Donald Trump for his role in inciting the violence. Mr. Upton was one. Rep. Peter Meijer, from Michigan鈥檚 neighboring 3rd district, was another.
Since then, many of those Republicans have been censured by their state parties or county groups, amid calls for their resignation. Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney lost her leadership position in the House. Nine of the 10 already have Trump-backed primary opponents, who are framing the 2022 midterm election as a referendum on support for Mr. Trump.
But in Mr. Upton鈥檚 district in southwest Michigan, it鈥檚 not that simple. The region has long been a stronghold of Dutch Americans, who settled in the area beginning in the mid-1800s, and the Dutch Reformed Church.
It鈥檚 similar to Utah, founded by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, in the sense that it has a unique sense of morality and an appreciation for politicians who can deliver for constituents.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it was the right thing to do,鈥� says Mr. Shugars of Mr. Upton鈥檚 impeachment vote, sitting in the Kalamazoo County GOP office, a camouflage 鈥淭rump 2024鈥� flag behind him. 鈥淏ut having said that, Fred鈥檚 office was very instrumental in getting $750,000 from FEMA for the area that was flooded out.鈥�
It鈥檚 a sentiment echoed by many Trump supporters here, who say they still plan to back their longtime congressman, whether the former president attacks him or not.
鈥淥ur district, and I think this is a lot of the country, they don鈥檛 care if you have an 鈥楻鈥� or a 鈥楧鈥� next to your name,鈥� says Mr. Upton from his office on Capitol Hill. 鈥淭hey just want the job done.鈥�
鈥淲e can鈥檛 wait.鈥�
Recently for Mr. Upton, getting the job done has meant working on a bipartisan infrastructure bill as a member of the House鈥檚 Problem Solvers Caucus. It鈥檚 the type of practical legislating he gets excited talking about, hands laced behind his head, one foot propped up on his coffee table.
He expresses concern about Mr. Trump鈥檚 many statements urging Republicans not to do an infrastructure deal with Democrats, instead waiting until 鈥渁fter we get proper election results in 2022.鈥�
鈥淚f we don鈥檛 get this done, nothing is going to happen,鈥� says Mr. Upton, who has been working on the bill since April. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 wait. Our roads suck.鈥�
Joan Hillebrands, Mr. Upton鈥檚 chief of staff who has worked for him for over 30 years, interrupts. This is why, she says, Republicans in the 6th Congressional District can disagree with Mr. Upton鈥檚 impeachment vote but still support him: It鈥檚 things like the roads that they really care about.
鈥淭hey see Fred and they see him working on the real issues that they are lying awake at night worrying about,鈥� says Ms. Hillebrands, pointing to legislation Mr. Upton introduced earlier this year with Michigan Democratic Sen. Debbie Dingell to protect drinking water from harmful chemicals, and his leadership on the Cures Act, a law signed by President Barack Obama in 2016 that increased the National Institute of Health鈥檚 budget for developing cures and vaccines.
Michigan鈥檚 6th is a swing district, divided between Democratic Kalamazoo, which makes up almost half the district鈥檚 voters, and five Republican counties to the west and south. For the past three decades, Mr. Upton has won reelection with sizable margins, even as the state backed Democratic presidential candidates. In 2016, Mr. Upton surpassed Mr. Trump鈥檚 winning margin by 14 percentage points in the district; in 2020 he surpassed Mr. Trump鈥檚 winning margin by 11 percentage points.
The surrounding region is generally socially conservative, but wasn鈥檛 with Mr. Trump from the beginning, says Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University.
Like the Mormons, the West Michigan Dutch population is a religious minority that is socially conservative but is also pro-immigration and pro-refugee, says Professor Grossmann. Their churches are, at least.
鈥淏ut of course, we are in an era where supporting Trump鈥檚 views and being a Republican are fused together,鈥� Professor Grossmann says. 鈥淓ven if there are distinctions and these different views on issues, they are harder to manage.鈥�
A number of district Republican voters say they wish Mr. Upton had voted differently on impeachment, but say the past 30-plus years he鈥檚 spent responding to constituents and traveling back home to his district mean something.
Larry Ladenburger, a retired county government worker from the Allegan area, says he voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 and has supported Mr. Upton since he first ran for office. When asked if he鈥檇 no longer support Mr. Upton following his impeachment vote, Mr. Ladenburger lets out a sigh. He pauses for a few beats.
鈥淣o, the vote doesn鈥檛 change my support for Fred,鈥� says Mr. Ladenburger.
鈥淗e has done well for this area of Michigan,鈥� he adds, referencing Mr. Upton鈥檚 bipartisan work on the Cures Act. 鈥淎nd I know he walks a difficult line.鈥�
Difficult votes
Walking a difficult line means taking difficult votes for a GOP member of Congress.
In 2019, Mr. Upton was to vote with Democrats to end a government shutdown, and later that year he was to condemn Mr. Trump鈥檚 tweet that several Democratic congresswomen 鈥済o back鈥� to other countries. Earlier this year he was who voted to strip fellow Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of her committee assignments for making incendiary statements, and then he was to support expanding background checks for gun purchases.
But he has also been at the forefront of some conservative causes, and has often agreed with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Upton, the former chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has called the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions an 鈥�.鈥� Under Mr. Trump, the congressman s in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act. And during the four years Mr. Trump was in office, he voted in line with the president 鈥� which, according to the data journalism site FiveThirtyEight, is more than expected given Mr. Trump鈥檚 2016 margin in the 6th District.
The congressman remains a member in good standing of the Michigan state GOP. A party committee and Mr. Meijer earlier this month.
But that doesn鈥檛 mean Mr. Upton鈥檚 path to reelection is free and clear. He and Mr. Meijer both already have three Republican primary opponents apiece, even though the 2022 midterms are more than a year away. Michigan鈥檚 other five Republican representatives have none.
Mr. Trump is a big reason for that. The former president has made the 10 impeachment-voting Republicans a top target, recruiting and endorsing primary challengers to run against them. 鈥淕et rid of them all,鈥� said Mr. Trump at a Conservative Political Action Conference in late February, during which he called out all 10 by name.
Mr. Meijer and Mr. Upton鈥檚 challengers are leaning on Mr. Trump鈥檚 directive, often advertising themselves as the race鈥檚 鈥渙nly real supporter鈥� of the former president. Mr. Meijer鈥檚 opponents include Audra Johnson, who made news in 2019 for her MAGA-themed wedding, and Mr. Upton鈥檚 opponents include Jon Rocha, a Mexican American Marine Corps veteran who was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.
鈥淯pton is one of those politicians, those Republicans, who say, 鈥榃ell I guess we could bend a little bit.鈥� That type of thinking needs to be removed,鈥� says Mr. Rocha. 鈥淭he Trump impeachment added fuel to that fire.鈥�
And plenty of Republican voters in the district agree with Mr. Rocha.
鈥淭he other grassroots people I鈥檓 talking to, we feel like Upton betrayed his constituents,鈥� says Steven Kuivenhoven, a GOP precinct delegate who lives in Kalamazoo and is backing another Upton challenger, state Rep. Steve Carra.
鈥淲e felt like [Upton] was impeaching us when he impeached Trump,鈥� says Mr. Kuivenhoven.
But the number of Mr. Upton and Mr. Meijer鈥檚 primary challengers, and the fact that they are running similar campaigns, helps the two incumbents. So too does the fact that Mr. Trump, despite the CPAC callout, has not yet made either of the congressmen a direct focus like he has of other pro-impeachment voters like Representative Cheney.
Voted to impeach two presidents
Mr. Upton is quick to pull out his cell phone and show pictures of his grandson. But scrolling a little bit farther back, he finds photos of a crowd approaching the Capitol steps on Jan. 6 鈥� an overhead view from the balcony of his office.
He was in his office when he saw the news on the TV, and then out his window. Mr. Upton heard the flash grenades and locked the doors of his office. He turned off the lights so it would look like the room was empty.
鈥淚t was real,鈥� says Mr. Upton. 鈥淎nd it was pretty scary.鈥�
But it was Mr. Trump鈥檚 comments afterward, when he said that his speech before the riot was 鈥渢otally appropriate鈥� 鈥� Mr. Upton does air quotes here 鈥� that made the congressman vote in favor of impeachment.
鈥淧eople know that I鈥檓 not afraid to oppose or support any president,鈥� says Mr. Upton. 鈥淚鈥檝e served with what 鈥� eight presidents now?鈥� The congressman looks at Ms. Hillebrands and begins to count on his fingers: Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden. He corrects himself: seven presidents.
One of Mr. Upton鈥檚 first votes, for example, was to override President Reagan鈥檚 veto on a federal highway funding bill in 1987. Before assuming office, Mr. Upton had worked for Mr. Reagan in the Office of Management and Budget. He still has a framed photo of the two of them in his office. But contrary to what his former colleagues in the Reagan administration had hoped, Mr. Upton voted against his old boss because, as he says with a shrug of his shoulders, 鈥渉ighways are important.鈥�
鈥淢y successor at OMB ... he goes, 鈥榃ell Fred, you鈥檙e going to be with The Gipper on this, right?鈥� and I said, 鈥榃ell, no,鈥�鈥� recalls Mr. Upton, chuckling. 鈥淚t鈥檚 who I鈥檝e always been. I haven鈥檛 changed.鈥�
And with his vote to impeach President Bill Clinton in 1998 and then Mr. Trump in 2021, Mr. Upton holds another superlative: the only U.S. Representative in the country鈥檚 history to have voted to impeach two presidents.
When I start to ask Mr. Upton about this, he closes his eyes and nods his head before I鈥檝e finished. He learned this stat recently, in one of the letters he received from angry constituents since January. Mr. Upton responded to this letter himself, as he does all others, citing his 100% ratings with conservative groups and strong conservative voting record.
Then he signed it, as he does with all his mail: 鈥淔red.鈥澛�
