海角大神

The contrast could not be more stark.聽

A year ago, during Donald Trump鈥檚 first impeachment trial, presidential tweets and retweets lit up social media, disparaging House Democrats as they made their case for a Senate conviction. 鈥淪leaze bag,鈥� 鈥渃on job,鈥� 鈥渃orrupt politician鈥� 鈥� the barbs coming from then-President Trump鈥檚 Twitter account seemed endless.聽

Today, midway through the former president鈥檚 historic second impeachment trial, the social media silence is almost deafening.

Mr. Trump鈥檚 permanent banishment from Twitter on Jan. 8, two days after the Capitol riot he is blamed by Democrats and some Republicans for inciting, has certainly crimped his style. He鈥檚 at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, living in deplatformed exile. Old-fashioned press releases from The Office of Donald J. Trump land in reporters鈥� inboxes. But the ex-president has made no TV or radio appearances since leaving office.

鈥淗is instinct is telling him to be quiet,鈥� says Ford O鈥機onnell, a Florida-based Republican strategist.聽

For Mr. Trump, this is an unusual posture, given that much of his professional life has centered on performance 鈥� first as a celebrity real estate developer, then a reality TV actor, and culminating in an improbable rise to the presidency.聽

This pause in Mr. Trump鈥檚 relentless public presence could be serving him well. His poll numbers a bit since plunging after the Jan. 6 sacking of the Capitol by his supporters. But even if Mr. Trump recaptures some of the support he lost, it鈥檚 a new day for his persona.聽

In some ways, the former president is two entities 鈥� a man and an idea. Mr. Trump the man has a solid base of diehard supporters, giving him the potential to stage a political comeback and become the first U.S. president to win a nonconsecutive second term since Grover Cleveland in 1892. Mr. Trump the idea represents a breed of political thought 鈥� 鈥渃onservative populism鈥� 鈥� that could be the key to success for other Republican politicians going forward.

鈥淭he Trump coalition is a conservative-populist alliance where both halves need the other in order to thrive,鈥� says Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington.聽

Can coalition hold together?

In policy terms, this alliance stands for some elements of old-style Republicanism 鈥� lower taxes, less regulation, cultural conservatism 鈥� along with an 鈥淎merica first鈥� approach to immigration, trade, and foreign policy.聽

To regain the presidency, Mr. Olsen says, Republicans need to add to this coalition without alienating either of its key components. That means, for example, sticking with Mr. Trump鈥檚 restrictive positions on immigration and international trade.聽

鈥淢any Republicans come from the conservative side of the alliance, so they鈥檙e used to talking about small government, religious liberty, and strong defense,鈥� says Mr. Olsen. At the same time, 鈥渢here are many people in the alliance who are concerned about America鈥檚 future, who are American patriots rather than conservatives, who want to see trade handled in a way that helps American jobs rather than American capital.鈥澛�

In a poll last month of 1,000 Trump voters in 2020 conducted by YouGov and directed by Mr. Olsen, the outlines of the Trump electorate show a potential path forward for the Republican Party, including one without Mr. Trump himself. It involves holding together culturally disparate elements of the electorate 鈥� embodied by well-off Republican donors and blue-collar workers who want someone fighting for them in Washington.聽

The survey shows how much Mr. Trump dominates today鈥檚 Republican Party, but provides no guarantee that he would be its leader heading into the 2024 presidential race. Some 66% of Trump 2020 voters said they鈥檙e more supporters of Mr. Trump than of the GOP. But only 54% said they鈥檇 definitely support the former president, were he to run again.聽聽

Divisions within the Trump electorate were evident in the poll on numerous issues: Some 60% said foreign trade helps the U.S. economy, while 40% said it hurts. Only 54% agreed that cutting taxes on the rich helps grow the economy for everyone. Climate change, too, brought a diversity of views, with only 34% of Trump voters saying that it鈥檚 鈥渘ot real and government should do nothing to combat it.鈥澛�

What鈥檚 clear is that, whoever carries the Trump mantle forward can鈥檛 alienate key swaths of voters, including those who helped the GOP win state legislatures and narrow the Democratic margin of control in the U.S. House of Representatives, even as Democrat Joe Biden was winning the White House. Mr. Trump鈥檚 considerable pull in 2020 was demonstrated in the 74 million people who voted for him, 11 million more than in his 2016 victory.聽

鈥淧opulism isn鈥檛 going away,鈥� says Karlyn Bowman, an expert on polling at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.聽

Around the country, Republicans are attaching themselves to Mr. Trump鈥檚 brand as they gear up to run for office in 2022. In Ohio, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel is running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman. 鈥淗elp protect the future of Pres. Trump鈥檚 America First Agenda,鈥� he said in a fundraising tweet Thursday.聽

In Arkansas, former Trump press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders is running for governor, and has already chased the lieutenant governor out of the race. In her announcement video, she leaned more on her service to Mr. Trump, who endorsed her candidacy early, than on father Mike Huckabee鈥檚 tenure as governor there.聽

Uncertain legacy

So is it still Mr. Trump鈥檚 Republican Party?聽

For now, yes, says a former Trump 2020 campaign official speaking on background. But the future is tough to predict. Some see Mr. Trump fading in public consciousness as the 2022 and 2024 elections gear up, even if Mr. Trump gets involved, as expected, by appearing at rallies and in the media.聽

Others see the former president getting a new lease on political life with an expected acquittal in the current impeachment trial 鈥� along the lines of 鈥渨hat doesn鈥檛 kill you makes you stronger.鈥澛�

Some analysts say there鈥檚 no Trumpism without Mr. Trump, that Trumpism is as much about his fighting spirit as about the policies. Maybe. The former campaign aide sees potential for a candidate who 鈥渇ights for the things Donald Trump fought for on the policy side, but doing it with Ronald Reagan鈥檚 voice, full of optimism and hopefulness.鈥澛�

Kevin Madden, a former Republican strategist, is less sanguine about the GOP鈥檚 future.聽聽

鈥淭he party has always flourished when it was the party of reform and the party of ideas,鈥� Mr. Madden says, looking back to President Ronald Reagan鈥檚 tenure and before then, to when 1964 presidential nominee Barry Goldwater was the party鈥檚 conservative standard-bearer. But under Mr. Trump, 鈥渢he party has been organized more around what it鈥檚 against than what it鈥檚 for.鈥澛�

鈥淭he reality is that Trump will have as big an impact on the profile of the party as Ronald Reagan did,鈥� says Mr. Madden, who left the party a year ago. 鈥淎nd he will serve as the identity of the party for likely the next 15 years, and potentially more.鈥澛�