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Caught in Trump impeachment storm, Joe Biden holds steady

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Charlie Neibergall/AP
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden works the grill during the Polk County Democrats Steak Fry, Sept. 21, 2019, in Des Moines, Iowa.

As the impeachment fight between President Donald Trump and House Democrats escalates, it has largely pushed the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates out of the news.聽

All, that is, except one.聽

On Wednesday, former Vice President Joe Biden became the last of the top-tier Democratic contenders to call for President Trump鈥檚 impeachment. It was his most forceful response yet to Mr. Trump鈥檚 apparent efforts to get Ukraine 鈥 and later, China 鈥 to investigate him and his son Hunter for corruption. 鈥淭rump will do anything to get reelected, including violating the most basic forms of democracy,鈥 Mr. Biden at a town hall in New Hampshire. 鈥淚t鈥檚 stunning, and it鈥檚 dangerous.鈥澛

Why We Wrote This

In attacking President Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden runs a risk 鈥 having his own r茅sum茅 as a Washington insider turned against him.

罢丑别谤别鈥檚 no evidence that the Bidens did anything illegal in Ukraine. And so far, the former vice president鈥檚 collateral role in the scandal hasn鈥檛 appeared to hurt his standing in the polls. The Trump campaign鈥檚 focus on him may even be helping perpetuate his image as a front-runner.聽

But it鈥檚 also serving to highlight a key tension in Mr. Biden鈥檚 candidacy: One of his main strengths 鈥 his many years at the heart of the Washington establishment 鈥 may also be his biggest weakness.

To many voters, Mr. Biden is respected and well liked, a known quantity. Wrapped in the halo of affection Democrats have for former President Barack Obama, he has presented himself as a return to 鈥渘ormalcy鈥 after the turmoil of the Trump years. It鈥檚 one of the reasons his poll numbers have held steady despite months of attacks by Mr. Trump, his Democratic rivals, and the social mediaverse.聽

Four decades spent in the nation鈥檚 capital, however, inevitably bring some baggage. Some younger progressives see Mr. Biden as an unwanted return to now-obsolete ways. As the Ukraine scandal continues to grow, some also suggest he鈥檚 too much of an insider, too mired in 鈥渢he swamp,鈥 to bring about the kind of change that鈥檚 needed in Washington.聽

鈥淗e needs to fight the perception that his presidency could be a return to the status quo,鈥 says Ryan Pougiales, senior political analyst at center-left think tank Third Way. 鈥淭here is no appetite among voters for going back to the way things were. How can Biden be [seen as] an agent of change and still bring the country together?鈥

Nick Wass/AP/File
Former Vice President Joe Biden sits with his son Hunter at the Duke Georgetown NCAA college basketball game in Washington Jan. 30, 2010. Since the early days of the United States, leading politicians have had to contend with awkward problems posed by their family members.

Mr. Biden has made the past central to his campaign, often calling up his relationship with President Obama and advocating a return to a less partisan era. His primary rivals have used those same features to cast the 76-year-old as a relic who needs to 鈥溾 and to question his ability to 鈥.鈥

Mr. Biden鈥檚 rambling, gaffe-prone stump appearances haven鈥檛 helped. He has confused New Hampshire for Vermont, Margaret Thatcher for Theresa May, and his campaign鈥檚 text-message code for its website. His reliance on big-dollar donors when his opponents are raking in small donations online left him fourth in third-quarter fundraising, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.聽

Even his message of bipartisanship 鈥 that he can reach across the aisle and work with Republicans 鈥 feels a little dated, says Jim Manley, a veteran Democratic strategist.

鈥淗e needs to step out of the reality that was the Senate in the 1990s and do a better job showing that he understands the concerns of today and he鈥檚 prepared to take them on,鈥 Mr. Manley says.聽

The Ukraine issue also could take a toll. Mr. Trump has suggested that the former vice president helped oust a Ukrainian prosecutor in order to protect an energy company where his son Hunter sat on the board. Mr. Biden鈥檚 defenders 鈥 and many independent experts 鈥 say the move, which was backed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, was spurred by the prosecutor鈥檚 failure to root out corruption. But these days, a claim doesn鈥檛 have to be proved, or true, to be damaging.聽

Moreover, the story illustrates the kind of elite influence-trading that many Americans hate about Washington 鈥 the legal 鈥渟oft corruption鈥 that candidates like Senator Warren rail against.聽Some voters will likely recoil when they hear that Hunter Biden earned $50,000 a month thanks to his father鈥檚 political cachet (though of course, Mr. Trump鈥檚 children have been accused of doing the exact same thing).

鈥淚t鈥檚 not at all the same as asking a foreign leader to investigate a political rival, but let鈥檚 not pretend that this doesn鈥檛 feel swampy,鈥 says聽political scientist Erin O鈥橞rien, who teaches at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

Still, the situation hasn鈥檛 seemed to hurt Mr. Biden. While Senator Warren has crept up in the polls over the summer, cutting his lead in some surveys and even overtaking him in others, her rise seems to have come more at the expense of other candidates. Mr. Biden鈥檚 numbers have聽, especially in crucial states like South Carolina.聽

Terry Shumaker, a U.S. ambassador under President Bill Clinton and longtime Biden friend and supporter, says it reflects the fact that these are unusual times. Democratic voters, he notes, usually prefer the fresh and the young. The only three presidents to have been elected while in their 70s 鈥 Mr. Trump, Ronald Reagan, and Dwight Eisenhower 鈥 were all Republicans.

Now, after three years of Mr. Trump, 鈥渢he revolution can wait,鈥 Mr. Shumaker says, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman.聽

鈥淥n Jan. 20 of 2021, somebody鈥檚 gotta go into the Oval Office with not a dustpan, but an enormous shovel, and start cleaning up the mess,鈥 Mr. Shumaker says. Mr. Biden, he argues, 鈥渋s ready to go on Day One. His bike does not need training wheels.鈥澛

Research conducted by Third Way that a majority of likely Democratic primary voters want a candidate who can unify the country more than they want someone who鈥檚 fighting for a cause, and who takes on urgent problems that Americans are facing rather than someone who鈥檚 shifting the national debate. While the nomination race is still 鈥渁bsolutely鈥 anybody鈥檚 game, Mr. Biden can point to years of experience doing precisely those things, Mr. Pougiales says.

鈥淧eople are looking for something they can trust, something they can depend on,鈥 adds Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist in South Carolina. 鈥淗e has the reliability factor.鈥澛

What Mr. Biden hasn鈥檛 done effectively is take charge of the narrative.聽Few of Mr. Biden鈥檚 policy ideas 鈥 which include a proposal to invest $5 trillion in public and private money into climate change over the next decade, and a new education plan that calls for two free years of community college 鈥 have been able to break through the noise about his age or the chaos over impeachment and Ukraine. Doing so will be key to proving that he can take on Mr. Trump.

鈥淭he [Biden] campaign has to block and tackle more: Block out any distractions that may be coming their way from the left or from the right, and tackle the issues that matter to everyday people,鈥 Mr. Seawright says. 鈥淭he bubble wants to talk about Trump. But the people want to hear about the quality-of-life issues that Joe Biden is known for.鈥

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