海角大神

Sandra Perry always votes 鈥� usually Democratic, sometimes Republican 鈥� but has never been involved in a campaign, until now. She spent the weekend door-knocking for Dan McCready, the Democratic candidate in Tuesday鈥檚 hotly contested special House election in North Carolina.听

鈥淚 had to,鈥� says the 60-something Ms. Perry, who lives in Indian Trail, near Charlotte. 鈥淚 cried when Donald Trump was elected. I鈥檓 against everything he stands for 鈥� misogyny, racism, ecologically ruining the planet.鈥�

This House election, in her view, is a chance to fight back.听

Suburban women were key to the Democratic takeover of the House last November, helping to flip Republican districts across the country. And it is suburban women like Ms. Perry 鈥� and the voters she hopes she鈥檚 persuaded to turn out 鈥� who could spell the difference in the toss-up race for North Carolina鈥檚 9th Congressional District. The seat has gone unfilled since January, after the midterm election results were thrown out amid allegations of election fraud on the part of Republican campaign operatives.听

Both parties are treating the do-over election as a bellwether for 2020. Outside groups have poured a near-record into TV ads. Republican candidate Dan Bishop has wrapped himself in President Trump鈥檚 mantle, calling himself a 鈥減ro-life, pro-gun, pro-wall鈥� conservative.听

And lest there be any doubt whom this contest is really about, Mr. Trump himself is holding a rally in the district Monday night, in Fayetteville. Vice President Mike Pence held a rally earlier in the day for Mr. Bishop, a state senator.听

鈥淭his is a district Democrats should not win,鈥� says Eric Heberlig, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina, Charlotte, noting that Mr. Trump won the district in 2016 by 12 percentage points.听

The tight polls 鈥渟how us that the dynamics in the 2018 midterms haven鈥檛 dissipated very much 鈥� that the suburban revolt against Trump is still going on at full force,鈥� says Professor Heberlig. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a red flashing danger signal to Republicans in those districts, and Republicans who need those votes to win statewide elections.鈥�

North Carolina has long flirted with being a purple state. It went for Barack Obama by a sliver in 2008, but went red in the next two presidential races. The governor is a Democrat, but both its senators are Republicans. There are other signs the state is trending purple, including the fact that all nine county commissioners for Mecklenburg County, which encompasses Charlotte, are now Democrats. The 9th District includes south Charlotte.听

Tuesday鈥檚 race contains echoes of two other recent special House elections 鈥� one in Georgia, the other in Pennsylvania. The 2017 Georgia special, in a solidly suburban district, went to the Republican, but in the 2018 midterms, the Democrat won the district.听

The Pennsylvania special in early 2018 was in a district more like North Carolina鈥檚 9th in its diversity, both economically and ethnically, with wealthier sections in and near the city and stretching out into rural, poorer areas. (In the North Carolina race, some 8% of the district is Native American.) And as in Pennsylvania, the Democratic nominee 鈥� Mr. McCready 鈥� is a young political newcomer and a military veteran. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Conor Lamb won a district that Mr. Trump had carried by almost 20 points. If Mr. McCready wins on Tuesday, he will be the first Democrat to represent the district since 1963.听

鈥淵鈥檃ll, that鈥檚 like JFK times,鈥� Mr. McCready told a get-out-the-vote rally in Charlotte last Friday.听

A fresh start for the GOP

For North Carolina Republicans, it鈥檚 a time of fresh starts. As of June, the state party has a new chairman, after the previous chair 鈥� a former congressman 鈥� was indicted on bribery charges. And there鈥檚 a fresh candidate running for the 9th District seat, after Mark Harris, an evangelical pastor who was the 2018 nominee, declined to run in the do-over election, citing health reasons.听

At a GOP unity event Saturday in a bucolic setting outside Charlotte, the new party leadership gathered with activists from the area and Young Republican leaders for a pep talk from Mr. Bishop and Tommy Hicks Jr., a Trump insider and co-chair of the Republican National Committee. T-shirts advertised 鈥淭he Right Dan.鈥� Carolina pulled pork was on the menu, followed by canvassing across the district to get out the vote.听

In an interview, Mr. Bishop addressed the challenge of winning back suburban women who have left the Republican fold. First, he pledged to comport himself 鈥渋n a way that will be appealing.鈥� Then he turned to the president.听

鈥淓verybody has a different style, to the point that some have found President Trump鈥檚 rhetoric distasteful,鈥� Mr. Bishop says. But 鈥渢here鈥檚 a counterpoint to that: The hostility to him from official sources is so uniform that he must do something unusual.鈥�

By 鈥渙fficial sources,鈥� he says, he means Democrats, the media, and agencies of the federal government itself.

鈥淗is personality 鈥� it鈥檚 almost like he鈥檚 uniquely suited to face that storm,鈥� Mr. Bishop says. 鈥淎nd so I think all that has to be taken into context.鈥�

Mr. Bishop also points to a key difference between Tuesday鈥檚 special and the original election. When Mr. McCready ran last November, he was part of the Democratic drive to retake the House. Now, having succeeded, the party has a larger, more diverse caucus, including new young members who aren鈥檛 shy about their left-wing views. Republican campaign ads have tried to lash the moderate Mr. McCready to Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

鈥淥n the campaign trail, I hear consistently from people who say they鈥檙e shocked or frightened by the ideas that are emanating from the mainstay of the Democratic Party,鈥� he says. 鈥淥ne is the open embrace of socialism.鈥澨�

Before this campaign, Mr. Bishop was best known as the author of the so-called bathroom bill in the state legislature, which required transgender people to use the restroom that correlates with the gender on their birth certificate. The law cost the state billions of dollars in lost revenue and was ultimately in federal court.听

Mr. Bishop says his only regret about the bill is that 鈥渢he city of Charlotte precipitated an unnecessary controversy.鈥� He also came in for criticism over a $500 investment in 2017 in a 鈥渇ree speech鈥� website, Gab.com, popular with white supremacists. Mr. Bishop denies he knowingly invested in a site that promotes hate. A group of anti-Trump conservatives known as Stand Up Republic, started by former presidential candidate Evan McMullin, has publicized the Gab controversy with advertising in the district.听

鈥楾he other Dan鈥�

If Mr. McCready wins election to the House, he will hardly join 鈥渢he squad,鈥� which includes Ms. Omar and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. The Democrat鈥檚 pitch has centered largely on biography and kitchen-table issues, foremost health care, with the campaign slogan 鈥渃ountry over party.鈥� Before he got into politics, he co-founded a successful , and before that, he served two tours in Iraq as a Marine captain. In the 2018 midterms, he was part of a slate of moderate Democratic military vets to run, with many taking over Republican districts.听

On the stump, Mr. McCready doesn鈥檛 mention Mr. Trump. But allusions to the president suffuse his campaign. 鈥淭his is a character election, as all elections must now be,鈥� said Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson, also a military vet, in introducing Mr. McCready at the Friday rally.听

Mr. Jackson also jokes that Mr. McCready has been running for this congressional seat so long 鈥� 27 months now 鈥� that the candidate鈥檚 fourth child was conceived, was born, and has learned to walk, all during this seemingly endless campaign.听

Mr. Bishop claims that he started at a disadvantage, as 鈥渢he other Dan鈥� has been running for so much longer. But 鈥渆verybody has plenty of money,鈥� says North Carolina Republican strategist Larry Shaheen. 鈥淭his is a turnout battle. Identify your voters, and get them to turn out.鈥澨�

In early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots than Republicans by several thousand. That鈥檚 typical: Democrats tend to vote early, and Republicans tend to turn out on Election Day. In the 9th District, almost as many independents as Republicans have cast early ballots. It鈥檚 anybody鈥檚 guess how those ballots will go, but strong early turnout by independents is unusual, especially for a special election.听

One early voter, an older woman named Sonia, wouldn鈥檛 reveal her choice for the 9th District or her last name, but did identify herself as conservative. Is she optimistic about the future?

鈥淚 have to be; things can鈥檛 get much worse,鈥� she says, hefting a watermelon at the Union Market farm stand in Waxhaw, 12 miles from Charlotte. 鈥淥bama did his best to destroy us.鈥澨�

Ahead of Tuesday, the airwaves have been chock-full of inflammatory ads aimed at both candidates. Republicans have dubbed the Democrat 鈥淢cGreedy,鈥� claiming the solar energy entrepreneur cost consumers millions of dollars by backing regulations that helped his business and raising utility rates. The Raleigh News & Observer rated the charge 听

Prominent Democrats have not stumped for Mr. McCready, who has tried to keep the focus local. 鈥淲ill Mr. Trump鈥檚 visit help or hurt your campaign?鈥� Mr. McCready is asked by a reporter after the Friday rally.听

鈥淚鈥檓 not a pundit, but people are tired of the partisan politics,鈥� he says. 鈥淵ou turn on Twitter, and it looks like our country is impossibly divided, but most people aren鈥檛 there. People are ready for leaders who will bring this country together.鈥澨�

Mr. McCready predicts Tuesday鈥檚 vote will be 鈥渆xtremely close鈥� 鈥� just as it was last November, when his opponent 鈥渨on鈥� by just 905 votes, before the results were invalidated.听

For now, North Carolina is still more red than purple, says Susan Roberts, a political scientist at Davidson College in Davidson, north of Charlotte. Mr. Bishop should win, she says, given the composition of the district. But if Mr. McCready ekes out a victory, 鈥渢hat will turn North Carolina into a battleground state.鈥澨�

Meeting division with dialogue

In Indian Trail, Scarlett Hollingsworth鈥檚 home doubles as the McCready campaign鈥檚 field office. It鈥檚 a beehive of activity, as canvassers varying in age and ethnicity come and go to get their marching orders. Two cats and a dog, plus the Hollingsworths themselves 鈥� Scarlett, her husband, and two of their children 鈥� are also in the mix.听

Ms. Hollingsworth, an IT specialist, is communications manager for the local chapter of the progressive group Indivisible, and she has taken the newcomer, Ms. Perry, under her wing to do door-knocking.听

Union County, where Indian Trail is located, voted heavily for Mr. Trump in 2016, but no matter. A Democratic vote is a Democratic vote, no matter where in the 9th District it鈥檚 cast.听

After two days of canvassing, Ms. Perry reflects on her experience. The first day, they targeted Democratic voters in an upper-middle-class neighborhood, and on Sunday, in a more lower-middle-class area. They had a target list of homes with registered Democrats, but Ms. Perry quickly discovered that some households are 鈥渕ixed.鈥澨�

At one house, 鈥渢he husband outside made clear he was not a Democrat and that we were not welcome,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e backed away. We鈥檙e not there to argue with people.鈥澨�

At another home, it seemed the mother was the only Democrat. But the canvassers talked to the whole family for an hour. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if we persuaded them, but it was great that they were open to dialogue,鈥� Ms. Perry says. 鈥淓ven Scarlett said that never happens. There鈥檚 just so much divisiveness.鈥澨�

What did Ms. Perry get out of the experience?听

鈥淚t filled me with hope,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t helps to engage people. It helped me to know that we鈥檙e not alone, in a heavily red area, which Union County is. I would smile, introduce myself, remind them to vote, and hand them a leaflet. Usually we got big smiles. I felt empowered 鈥� and hopefully we empowered them.鈥澨�