Afterthought no more? California to flex muscles in 2020 primaries.
| Los Angeles
Like the bodybuilders on Venice Beach, the state of California is looking to flex its muscles, but in presidential politics.
Unlike past cycles, when the Golden State has voted near the end of the primary contests 鈥� after the nominees were already essentially known 鈥� in 2020 California will vote on the March 3 鈥淪uper Tuesday,鈥� just after the earliest states have cast their ballots. Not only that, but the top tier of Democratic candidates features one of California's own, Sen. Kamala Harris, setting up the possibility California could slingshot her toward the nomination.
鈥淎fter years of being a stepchild in the process, California is now poised to throw its weight around,鈥� says Phil Trounstine, co-editor and publisher of Calbuzz.
Why We Wrote This
By moving up its primary date, the Golden State could help shape the Democratic nomination process 鈥� and possibly elevate its own Sen. Kamala Harris. Or it could find itself marginalized once again.
But California鈥檚 power play may yet fizzle.
The state has tried moving up its primary before, and it didn鈥檛 make a decisive difference. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry was already the de facto nominee by the time California backed him in March. In 2008, Republican John McCain had already won New Hampshire and South Carolina when California voted along with 23 other states in a February 鈥淢ega Tuesday.鈥� He won most of the primaries that day, going on to win the nomination.
Moreover, while Senator Harris could get a big boost from California, it鈥檚 an open question whether her home-state advantage听would give her a lock on the state鈥檚 huge cache of delegates.听California鈥檚 Democratic primary is not winner take all; Democrats divvy up the Golden State鈥檚 delegates proportionately according to the vote in each congressional district.
鈥淓veryone thinks we鈥檙e this monolith and that all of our delegates are a real pot of gold.鈥� says Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a longtime observer of California politics, now retired from the University of Southern California. 鈥淲e have proportional allocation. Nobody鈥檚 going to win California outright.鈥� In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both won more than 200 delegates here.
Going up against听a native Californian听could cause other candidates to essentially write off the state, as happened in 1992, when the Democrats all but conceded Iowa in advance to then-Sen. Tom Harkin, who won its caucuses easily but did not advance to win his party鈥檚 nomination.听
The sheer size of California makes it very expensive to campaign in. Spanning the geographic terrain through television advertising is a costly lift for a campaign, and reaching people by social media is costly as well.
鈥淐alifornia鈥檚 a black hole鈥� for presidential campaigns, sucking up time and resources, says John Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. 鈥淥ne possible outcome is that the other candidates may say, 鈥楲ook, let鈥檚 let Kamala Harris be the favorite daughter, and we can save our money for other states.鈥� 鈥�
Others say that top-tier candidates will have to contest the state, given its sheer number of delegates 鈥� more than half the total number of delegates in the other Super Tuesday states combined.听
Harris has generally won praise for starting strong out of the gate, despite having to walk back a recent town hall comment that she favored eliminating private health insurers with 鈥淢edicare for all.鈥� More than 20,000 people rallied for the former prosecutor at her campaign kickoff on Jan. 27 at Oakland鈥檚 city hall 鈥� blocks from where she was born to her Indian mother and Jamaican father.
Only in the Senate two years, and in the minority party at that, she鈥檚 drawn national attention with her sharp questioning of President Trump鈥檚 nominees, notably Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. She鈥檚 also won three statewide races, two for California attorney general and then the US Senate.
While some progressives question her law enforcement record and others wonder about her authenticity, Professor Pitney describes her as Reaganesque in charisma. 鈥淚 know it鈥檚 a weird analogy, but she has a very clear ideological position, and she can be very critical of the incumbent administration 鈥� but she does it with a smile,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he charisma factor is not to be ignored.鈥�
Still, she鈥檚 facing formidable opponents, in a crowded field that is getting bigger by the day, with the wealthy former Starbucks chair Howard Schultz hovering as a possible independent candidate and Democrat Joe Biden still undeclared. The former vice president is particularly well-liked in California and a friend of labor.
Robert Shrum, who advised the Kerry and Al Gore presidential campaigns, believes that the foremost question for Democratic voters next year will be who can best beat President Trump. And while he doesn鈥檛 know who has the best shot, he does believe his old friend and former client Mr. Biden could do it. Biden appeals to base constituencies and could also do well in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, where Harris is untested and which come after the California primary.
If Harris is to be successful, he says, she must do well in the earliest states 鈥� Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. If not, Californians may decide they鈥檇 rather back whoever is seen as the frontrunner.
鈥淚 would argue that California moving up doesn鈥檛 diminish the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire but actually increases it,鈥� says Shrum, now at the University of Southern California. 鈥淚f you don鈥檛 come out of the early primaries as one of the three or four people who鈥檚 really in contention for the nomination, then I think it will be very hard to do well in California.鈥�
