The Trump effect at two: Have views of an unconventional presidency shifted?
| Washington
From the start, Donald Trump has tested a 鈥渃haos theory鈥� of the American presidency.
Countless norms of a modern White House have vanished, as the ultimate outsider chief executive has done things his way. President Trump has churned through top advisers and Cabinet secretaries at a record pace, dramatically changed the form and content of presidential communications, embraced the politics of government shutdowns, and announced breathtaking policy shifts that have caught even senior aides and world leaders off guard.听
A year that began with a short shutdown ended with a long, partial one, as Mr. Trump blew up Congress鈥檚 plan to extend funding for a quarter of the government over funding for a Southern border wall.
Why We Wrote This
Supporters see his norm-busting approach as good for the country at the same time that critics view it as dangerously unstable. Is he sowing chaos or being unconventionally effective?
From the profoundly important to the trivial, Year Two of the Trump presidency matched Year One for sheer drama. Five former Trump aides faced prison time in matters both related and unrelated to the inquiry into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. A Supreme Court nomination merged with the #MeToo movement into must-see TV. Trump barnstormed the country to boost Republicans 鈥� and his 2020 prospects 鈥� but a blue wave flipped the House, setting up a potential collision course in 2019.听
Then there鈥檚 the spectacle of a top Trump adviser鈥檚 spouse 鈥� George Conway, conservative lawyer and husband of Kellyanne Conway 鈥� regularly tweeting harsh criticisms of the president. Weird? Yes. But we鈥檝e gotten used to it. We also barely blink, it seems, at news reports that might have engulfed other White Houses, such as hush money payments to mistresses and The New York Times鈥� year-long investigation into . To the president鈥檚 supporters, it鈥檚 all more 鈥渇ake news鈥� or at best a sideshow; to opponents, it鈥檚 just more evidence of outrageous business as usual.听
In the Trump era, the abnormal has come to feel normal. But to say that invites a backlash from the president鈥檚 critics, who have warned from Day One against 鈥渘ormalization,鈥� a way station to acceptance, they say. 聽
鈥淓ven the instability is coming to feel stable, because it is now so accepted,鈥� says Barbara Perry, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville.听
No wonder 鈥淗ouse of Cards鈥� and 鈥淰eep鈥� have folded. The most fertile imagination of TV writers scripting over-the-top fictional presidencies can鈥檛 compete with reality.听
And yet 鈥β�
There鈥檚 another way to look at this presidency.
Trump has, controversially or not, gotten a lot done using the legitimate levers of power, either by going through Congress or through executive action. He has changed the tax code, eliminated key elements of the Affordable Care Act, pulled the United States out of major international agreements (Paris climate accord, Iran nuclear deal), reformed others (US-Mexico-Canada trade), gone hard after China鈥檚 trade practices, and announced a pullout of all US troops from Syria and a drawdown from Afghanistan.听
Consider also the economy 鈥� still strong on the fundamentals, despite the year-end plunge in the markets. In a Monitor interview, former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich says Trump鈥檚 reelection depends on both continued economic strength and working with the newly empowered Democrats in Congress.听
鈥淧art of it is, just keep the economy growing, and have people realize that on balance, their lives are dramatically better,鈥� says Mr. Gingrich, an informal Trump adviser. (See sidebar for more of our interview.) 鈥淧art of it is, focus on common-sense solutions on health care, and a bipartisan approach on infrastructure.鈥�
Ari Fleischer, former press secretary in the second Bush White House, sees another imperative heading into 2020: outreach to minorities, who went heavily against Trump in 2016.听
鈥淭he way he expands his base is by talking and showing that he cares about people who don鈥檛 come to his rallies,鈥� Mr. Fleischer says.
Whether these measures are even available to Trump, after two years of tumult and no-holds-barred rhetoric, is debatable. Add to that the sirens coming from the left warning of Trump as a wannabe autocrat. 鈥淚 alone can fix it,鈥� candidate Trump thundered at the GOP鈥檚 2016 convention. As president, now a self-described 鈥渘ationalist,鈥� he routinely praises the iron-fisted rule of strongmen the world over, from North Korea and China to Russia, Turkey, and the Philippines.听
The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University warns of the Trump has available to him 鈥� 136 emergency powers 鈥渇rom the minor to the catastrophic,鈥� including seizing control of the internet and declaring martial law.听
But so far, at least, the reality of Trump鈥檚 executive actions hasn鈥檛 matched the fears.听
鈥淗is rhetoric does reflect an excessive view of inherent power,鈥� says Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law scholar at George Washington University. 鈥淏ut he hasn鈥檛 actually used it.鈥澛�
Trump鈥檚 use of executive power is in line with that of his predecessors, Mr. Turley says. And when Trump鈥檚 unilateral actions have been reined in by judges 鈥� such as the so-called ban on immigration to the US from some predominantly Muslim countries 鈥� his administration has followed the edicts of the courts.听
鈥淗e has given no indication that he is prepared to defy judicial authority,鈥� says Turley. 鈥淎nd he hasn鈥檛 ordered agencies to ignore judicial orders. So thus far, he does not have a record that raises the specter of authoritarianism.鈥�
Furthermore, Trump has even managed, on occasion, to preside over significant policy reform with strong bipartisan support in Congress. On Dec. 21, he signed the First Step Act, criminal justice reforms that are deemed modest but nevertheless represent the most significant changes to the system in decades, including scaling back mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent drug felons. Trump and his senior adviser son-in-law Jared Kushner had pushed hard for the bill in the face of conservative resistance.听
Yet on that very same day, Trump also presided over the start of the third government shutdown of the year 鈥� this one partial, but by far the longest 鈥� when he held firm on demanding more than the Democratic position of $1.3 billion to add more barrier structures to the US-Mexico border.听
Two years in, the first American ever to assume the presidency with no governing or military experience seems as untethered by convention as ever 鈥� using the levers of power at his disposal, taking stands on his core issues (immigration, trade), and bucking hard-line conservatives when it suits him (criminal justice reform).听
There is little that鈥檚 routine about this presidency, but a certain rhythm has set in. Quiet days are followed by bursts of activity and provocative tweets, like the programming of a TV drama. His ever-shifting cast of advisers has learned to let Trump be Trump, because they have no choice.听
And along the way, this president has had a profound impact on the country.听
At the barber shop
Ron Miller 鈥� provider of 鈥渇antastic haircuts,鈥� by his own reckoning 鈥� used to serve a politically diverse clientele at his one-chair barber shop in rural Greene, Maine. Then Trump got elected. Now, Mr. Miller says, people who disagree with his conservative politics don鈥檛 come to his shop anymore 鈥� even customers of 20 years鈥� standing.
鈥淚鈥檝e been told, 鈥業鈥檓 not going to support you because you鈥檝e supported President Trump,鈥� 鈥� says Miller, a retired Navy diver with a bushy horseshoe mustache. His walls are crammed with memorabilia, including two stuffed deer heads, a Bush poster, and a well-worn Make America Great Again cap.听
鈥淵ou can鈥檛 be a Democrat or you can鈥檛 be a Republican and have an opinion without the other person hating you,鈥� Miller says. 鈥淚鈥檝e seen people in the town that don鈥檛 talk to each other anymore.鈥�
Just an hour south, in Maine鈥檚 largest city, Portland, it鈥檚 not hard to find folks from the other side of the divide. Lynn Jennings and David Silk, just finished with a long morning bike ride, have nothing good to say about the Trump administration as they sip coffee in a local cafe.听
鈥淭wo years down, two to go,鈥� says Ms. Jennings, a former Olympic runner. 鈥淓very day feels like it鈥檚 worse than the day before.鈥澛�
Mr. Silk, a lawyer, recalls coming of age during the Nixon era, and how the president used the tools of government to do away with opponents. 鈥淕rowing up in that time, I had a distrust of government,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t took a long time to get that trust back. And now鈥� 鈥� he snaps his fingers 鈥� 鈥渋t鈥檚 gone again, just like that.鈥澛�
The two Maines 鈥� a predominantly liberal coast, a conservative-leaning interior 鈥� reflect a national divide that Trump has exacerbated but did not create. In their new book 鈥淚dentity Crisis,鈥� political scientists John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck conclude from survey data that the American public contains 鈥渞eservoirs of sentiment that serve both to unify and to divide.鈥� And in 2016, it was the polarizing rhetoric of the presidential candidates that sowed division among voters in their communities.
鈥淲hat gave us the 2016 election, then, was not changes among voters. It was changes in the candidates,鈥� the authors write.听
Trump鈥檚 scorched-earth rhetoric dominated the campaign and activated a new coalition of traditional conservatives and white working-class voters. But Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton didn鈥檛 help when she labeled half of Trump supporters 鈥渁 basket of deplorables.鈥澛�
Americans, in fact, agree on much when it comes to defining national identity. A December 2016 survey by the bipartisan Democracy Fund found that American identity is centered on beliefs, not race or religion. Most Democrats and Republicans agreed, for example, that 鈥渞especting American political institutions and laws鈥� and 鈥渁ccepting diverse racial and religious backgrounds鈥� were important to being American.听
But since Trump鈥檚 election, Americans鈥� views on immigration . Take the question of whether unauthorized immigrants should have a path to citizenship, provided they meet certain requirements. Since 2013, Democrats have held steady in their support of this view (77 percent), as have independents (66 percent), says Robert Jones, chief executive officer of the Public Religion Research Institute.听
PRRI鈥檚 numbers among Republicans present a different picture: Until late 2016, GOP voters鈥� support for a path to citizenship held consistently around 55 percent, then between 2016 and 2018, support dropped to 39 percent. Republican support for deportation has jumped from 28 percent to 42 percent.听
鈥淥n that question, there is no other explanation than the presidency of Donald Trump,鈥� says Dr. Jones. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe Trump invented the conditions; racial tensions and anti-immigrant feeling were latent, and he brought them to the foreground.鈥澛�
Jones also posits that the ascendance of Trump represents a profound shift in the definition of America鈥檚 鈥渃ulture wars.鈥澛�
鈥淚n 2004, we were talking abortion and same sex marriage,鈥� he says. 鈥淭oday, those kind of issues have been nearly replaced by identity questions: who gets to be an American, who doesn鈥檛, what it means to be an American.鈥澛�
Ask Trump voters open-ended questions about how he鈥檚 doing, and they often point to the economy first, then immigration, trade, and court picks, all happily. Any complaints? The tweets. The mouth. How his brash style can step on good news and hurt his own cause. But even there, the message is mixed: Yes, he could dial it back on Twitter, but they like hearing directly from the president. And it鈥檚 the media鈥檚 fault that he鈥檚 not popular, and Congress鈥檚 fault that he can鈥檛 enact his agenda.
鈥淎s things evolved, I think the economy seems to be doing well,鈥� despite the downturn in the markets, says Joseph Rattay, a commercial banker in Cleveland. 鈥淗e鈥檚 trying to make good on his promises with border security. He鈥檚 making headway with good trade agreements鈥�. Overall, he鈥檚 trying to do what he campaigned on.鈥澛�
Karen Kramer, a software developer from north of Columbus, Ohio, says she was leaning toward someone else in the 2016 GOP primaries but came to like Trump.
鈥淚 do feel like he speaks from the heart and that he鈥檚 really trying to do the best for our country,鈥� says Ms. Kramer.听
She also sees a religious dimension to the Trump presidency, and likes that he鈥檚 trying to 鈥減reserve a bit of the culture.鈥� 聽
鈥淚 am tolerant of other religions, but I also feel like my faith and the 海角大神 religion have really been oppressed, actually,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 feel just glad that he鈥檚 willing to say openly that he believes in God or that he鈥檚 celebrating Christmas.鈥澛�
The view from Caldwell Farms
Rural Androscoggin County in Maine, which includes the town of Greene, is in a way emblematic of the Trump revolution. In 2012, all but four towns in the county voted to reelect President Barack Obama. In 2016, all but one town voted for Trump.
It鈥檚 not hard to find satisfied residents. Ralph Caldwell, a farmer in Turner, says businesses here are more optimistic and expanding. 鈥淛ust look at Caldwell Farms,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e selling more beef than we were, and we鈥檙e buying more replacement cattle than we were鈥�. Folks who work for a living, we think he鈥檚 wonderful.鈥澛�
Mr. Caldwell鈥檚 only complaint about Trump is that he has 鈥渓et [special counsel Robert] Mueller stay around. He should have shut off their funds.鈥澛�
Over in Lisbon Falls, four women friends are gathered at Chummy鈥檚 Diner for their monthly breakfast, and are eager to talk politics with a visiting reporter.听
鈥淭he economy is better,鈥� says Karen Hanlon, who worked the polls on Election Day. 鈥淯nemployment is so low. I just wish he鈥檇 do more about immigration, but his hands are tied.鈥澛�
Her friend Monique Gayton also strongly supports Trump, but wishes he would 鈥減ut a zipper on his mouth.鈥� Still, she and her friends believe the media has been too hostile to the president. Fox is the only network that鈥檚 been supportive, Ms. Gayton says, and 鈥渋f CNN could put a dagger in his throat, they鈥檇 do it.鈥�
Public opinion hasn鈥檛 budged
One remarkable aspect of the Trump presidency, a roller-coaster ride of 鈥渄id that really just happen?鈥� moments, is the stability of public opinion. From the start, Trump鈥檚 average job approval rating in major polls has consistently held between the high 30s and mid-40s, with disapproval in the low to mid-50s.听
鈥淢ost people were locked in in their views of Trump, pro or con, from Day One 鈥� really even before 鈥� and they still are,鈥� says Carroll Doherty, director of political research at the Pew Research Center.听
Trump, in fact, is the of any going back to Dwight Eisenhower, based on survey data from Pew and Gallup. In the first 19 months of Trump鈥檚 presidency, he has averaged 84 percent support among Republicans and 7 percent support among Democrats in Pew polls.
Beyond ever-greater polarization, Americans are also more likely to say that political conversations with people they disagree with are 鈥渟tressful and frustrating鈥� 鈥� and the .
鈥淭he worst thing about his presidency is that he has given people permission to be their worst, to be horrible,鈥� says Tasha Judson, a hairdresser and Millennial who grew up in coastal Maine.
In Boston, several African-Americans interviewed agree with Ms. Judson鈥檚 assessment. 鈥淗e opened a can that can鈥檛 be closed. When Obama was in office we didn鈥檛 have any of this 鈥� any of this toward black people or immigrants,鈥� says Candy, who asked that her last name not be used.
Eddy Remy says 鈥減olitics is politics,鈥� but he objects to the president treating the White House like a reality TV set. 鈥淗e thinks it鈥檚 all a game. He thinks this is 鈥楾he Apprentice.鈥� 鈥�
In the press room
Time was when White House reporters could count on a press briefing three or four times a week 鈥� even in the Trump era. It was an opportunity to question the press secretary about the issues of the day.
In mid-2018, that all changed. The frequency of direct communication from Trump increased 鈥� tweets, short question and answer sessions with reporters, and media interviews. The daily briefing nearly vanished.听
鈥淚f you can hear directly from the president and the press has a chance to ask the president of the United States questions directly, that鈥檚 infinitely better than talking to me,鈥� press secretary Sarah Sanders told Fox News in September.
White House reporters and scholars on presidential communications disagree.听
鈥淲e鈥檝e definitely lost something by losing the daily briefing,鈥� says Martha Joynt Kumar, who studies White House-media relations from her perch in the West Wing press area.
Reporters have lost the regular opportunity to put their questions, on the record, to the press secretary in public, she says. And the White House has lost a valuable source of intelligence on what the press 鈥� and by extension the public 鈥� is clamoring to know.听
鈥淚t鈥檚 useful for the press secretary in dealings with the president and with staff,鈥� says Ms. Kumar, an emeritus political science professor at Towson University in Maryland. 鈥淚t can help the press secretary uncork information from the inside. A press secretary can say, 鈥楲ook, I鈥檓 getting a lot of questions on that.鈥� 鈥�
In a way, Trump has become his own press secretary, just as he has made the job of White House chief of staff even tougher than usual, by chafing at the order a typical chief tries to impose. These are among the new norms of the Trump era.
In front of the lectern
鈥淭his is what Washington looks like when you have a president who refuses to sort of go along to get along.鈥�
That鈥檚 acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney speaking on Fox News soon after the latest government shutdown began. But it鈥檚 an observation that can apply widely. Trump does things his own way 鈥� including an unorthodox approach to facts and the norms of public civility.听
Still, Trump also regularly demonstrates behavior that is conventionally 鈥減residential.鈥� For example, he showed compassion toward the families of young shooting victims at a recent White House meeting to unveil the report of his school safety commission.
But 鈥淧resident acts presidential鈥� isn鈥檛 a headline. 鈥淧resident calls porn star 鈥楬orseface鈥� 鈥� is. Some media鈥檚 emphasis on the negative and outrageous can skew coverage. Trump supporters focus on outcomes and tolerate or minimize his style.听
鈥淪eparate the signal from the noise,鈥� former Trump aide Steve Bannon .听
Trump critics see the power of the presidential bully pulpit and its potential (or actual) harm to overall public discourse.听
How much Trump bears blame for a wider decline in public civility 鈥� a trend that was already well under way when he entered politics 鈥� is open to debate. 聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 an important question,鈥� says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. 鈥淭he presumption is, someone who gains a great deal of national exposure and carries the legitimacy of the presidency has the capacity to normalize something.鈥�
Trump鈥檚 rhetoric at rallies and in tweets certainly strays, at times, from the norms of acceptable public discourse 鈥� and rally-goers at times follow suit. But in the 2018 midterms, there was no evidence that major candidates were able to duplicate Trump鈥檚 style with success.听
鈥淲e haven鈥檛 seen [Trump鈥檚 style] spawn successful imitators, and that鈥檚 good news鈥� for the norms of political rhetoric, Ms. Jamieson says. And despite Trump鈥檚 perpetual cries of 鈥渇ake news,鈥� public trust in media rebounded in 2018, according to and the .
Looking ahead to the campaign trail
Both Gingrich and Fleischer are avatars of a Republican Party that no longer exists. And both, in their own way, are trying to help shape the party鈥檚 future.听
Gingrich, who speaks with Trump regularly, preaches his own version of 鈥淭he Art of the Deal鈥� 鈥� compromise with Democrats where possible, and let lawyers deal with the investigations.听
The former speaker says he鈥檚 told Trump 鈥渟ome of his tweets don鈥檛 help him at all.鈥� But 鈥渉e鈥檚 been very effective on big things.鈥澛�
Fleischer seems less sanguine about 2020. 鈥淭rump is not positioned well,鈥� says Fleischer, co-author of a 2013 GOP report on the party鈥檚 future.
He agrees that the new House Democratic majority gives Trump a convenient punching bag. And the Democrats certainly might overdo it on investigations and impeachment, and move 鈥渢oo far left鈥� in their presidential nomination process, he says. But Fleischer sees the drubbing Republicans took in the midterms as a warning sign for 2020, because of what it showed about GOP weakness with women and minorities.
The numbers on race are stark, as Fleischer laid out in at FoxNews.com: In 2000, when George W. Bush was first elected, 81 percent of American voters were white. In 2016, the figure was 71 percent. By 2020, it will be even lower.听
鈥淓very successful politician maximizes their base, gins up turnout from their base, and then adds to it,鈥� Fleischer says in an interview. 鈥淭rump鈥檚 done two of the three.鈥澛�
But given his style, can Trump really hold his base and attract new support at the same time?聽
鈥淭hat was the point of my op-ed,鈥� says Fleischer. 鈥淗e has to figure out how to do both or it won鈥檛 be enough.鈥澛�
Staff writer Story Hinckley contributed to this report from Maine and Boston. Christopher Johnston contributed from Ohio.听
