海角大神

Since the early days of his presidency, Donald Trump has been talking about shutting down the very institution he campaigned to lead: the federal government. Sometimes he frames such a move as a 鈥済ood shutdown,鈥� much the way people used to talk about a child needing a 鈥済ood spanking.鈥�

The goal of a 鈥済ood shutdown,鈥� President Trump last year, was to fix the 鈥渕ess鈥� in Washington. Since then, the federal government has shut down twice, as congressional funding has lapsed, but so briefly as to be hardly noticeable. And certainly, Washington still isn鈥檛 performing as Mr. Trump would like. For one, Congress still hasn鈥檛 funded his long-promised border wall with Mexico.

Now, as the final, lame-duck portion of the 115th Congress begins, and the Republicans enter their waning days in control of the House, the possibility of a partial shutdown looms. Funding for several critical departments is due to expire Dec. 7. Trump speaks of a shutdown regularly, as a way to sharpen the stakes of a tension-filled border debate, please his political base, and set up the politics of 2020 with a slam on Democrats as soft on migrant caravans full of 鈥渃riminals.鈥�

For GOP legislators, there鈥檚 a big downside to headlines about a 鈥済overnment shutdown.鈥� During the lame duck, they will still control both houses of Congress. It鈥檚 their last chance to show that Republicans can govern constructively, with both the legislative and executive branches in their hands.

Still, for Trump, the timing may be right for a 鈥済ood shutdown,鈥� say Republicans sympathetic to the president. The next general election is nearly two years away, and so memories of any negative fallout would fade. And for Trump supporters, a shutdown would show a commitment to one of his core campaign promises, still a sure-fire chant at rallies: 鈥淏uild that wall!鈥�

鈥淚f he鈥檚 going to go all in for the border wall, this is the best time to do it,鈥� says Republican strategist Ford O鈥機onnell.

A 鈥渟hutdown鈥� in early December would actually involve only one-quarter of the government, as most departments are already funded through September 2019. Among those departments awaiting funding is the Department of Homeland Security, which includes the border patrol. Though as with all shutdowns, agency heads are empowered to exempt 鈥渆ssential personnel,鈥� so the critical functions of government 鈥� including border security 鈥� would not stop.

In short, to most Americans a 鈥渟hutdown鈥� would be largely notional 鈥� albeit disruptive to furloughed government employees and not without , but a headline that Trump may feel works to his advantage.聽And besides, the former reality TV star president聽seems to love drama.

Sticking points

Negotiations on government funding have bogged down over issues that include funding for border security. Senate legislation provides $1.6 billion, while the House bill allocates $5 billion. The Senate bill has support from members of both parties, while the House bill is built just on GOP votes. Trump has argued for as much as $25 billion in wall funding, but the final number is likely to come in closer to the Senate figure than that in the House, according to reports.

For all concerned, the optics are key. No Republicans in Congress are rooting for a shutdown, but some are more willing than others to make Trump鈥檚 case about the US-Mexico border.

鈥淟ook, this is a national security interest of ours,鈥� Rep. Mike Johnson (R) of Louisiana, incoming chair of the conservative House Republican Study Committee, said Sunday on Fox News. He cited human traffickers, drug cartels, and 鈥渞adicalized terrorists coming across the border undetected.鈥�

Still, Congressman Johnson predicted that a government shutdown wouldn鈥檛 be necessary to get the funding needed to secure the border.

Democrats are already framing their arguments for the inevitable blame game, should a shutdown occur.

鈥淚f the president of the United States, who already is a historically unpopular president, is seen as causing the inconveniences and other problems associated with a government shutdown, it's going to be a real political problem for him,鈥� Rep. Jim Himes (D) of Connecticut said Sunday on Fox News. 鈥淚t won't be the Democrats in the House of Representatives that are shutting down the government. It'll be the president.鈥�

Democrats, in a way, have the best of both worlds. They can block legislation in the Senate by filibustering, which requires 60 votes to overcome (the GOP currently has a 51-49 majority in that chamber). But the image in Washington is of a Republican Party with total control, and so it may be easy for Democrats to convince the public that the GOP, with Trump in charge, is to blame.

The importance of optics

Some 55 percent of registered voters (and 34 percent of Republicans) do not support a shutdown over the border wall, according to . Democrats have floated the idea of legislation to protect special counsel Robert Mueller and to eliminate a question on the next census about citizenship as bargaining chips. But Morning Consult found a 47 percent plurality said a bill protecting Mr. Mueller鈥檚 job wasn鈥檛 worth shutting down the government. The poll didn鈥檛 ask about the census.

Another wild card is that funding for the Justice Department would expire in a shutdown, and Trump would have the power to decide if Mueller is an 鈥渆ssential鈥� employee and therefore still able to work.聽Employees deemed 鈥渘onessential鈥� are not allowed to work during a shutdown.

Trump seems unfazed by public opinion on a shutdown. And when asked by reporters, Trump repeats his willingness 鈥� at times enthusiastically 鈥� to shut down the government over border wall funding.

鈥淭his would be a very good time to do a shutdown,鈥� Trump told reporters at the White House before Thanksgiving, adding that he didn鈥檛 think it would be necessary. 鈥淚 think the Democrats will come to their senses, and if they don鈥檛 come to their senses, we will continue to win elections.鈥�

Republican strategist Rick Tyler, a Trump critic, finds all the shutdown talk odd.

鈥淚鈥檝e never known anybody to advocate for a shutdown,鈥� Mr. Tyler says. 鈥淏ecause a shutdown is really a failure of leadership on both sides. A leader鈥檚 job is to find common ground and get an agreement, based on a win-win.鈥�

Democratic strategist Jim Manley also sees the shutdown talk as a nonstarter.

鈥淯nless the president gives up a lot in the upcoming negotiations, he鈥檚 not getting the $5 billion for his beloved border wall,鈥� says Mr. Manley, former spokesman for retired Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. 鈥淒emocratic leaders would be run out of town if they agreed to that.鈥�

But the real negotiations haven鈥檛 started yet. And nothing will be decided until the last moment, as usual. If Trump really wants to get some mileage out of a 鈥済ood shutdown,鈥� if only with his existing supporters, Tyler says, he鈥檒l have to make a big deal out of it.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think [House Democratic leader] Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats are afraid of a shutdown, because most people don鈥檛 notice it,鈥� Tyler says. 鈥淗e鈥檇 have to make a spectacle of it to get it even noticed. But my guess is if it鈥檚 going to be about a blame game, which Trump wants, two-thirds will blame him and one-third will blame her. I鈥檇 take those odds.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: Congressman Johnson鈥檚 office reached out Nov. 29 to clarify a statement he made Sunday on Fox News that seemed to suggest he supported a shutdown over border security funds. Johnson issued the following statement: 鈥淐learly we do not want a government shutdown, and thankfully, I don鈥檛 think it will come to that. I expect the president will get the wall funding he has been asking for the past two years, and I fully support the wall as a necessity. This is a national security issue, and it is imperative we secure our borders and protect the American people.鈥�